Gov Huck did no public campaigning with Iowans today. With 4 days left NO RETAIL GET OUT THE VOTE RALLIES??????

If Huck wins the caucuses, his new ads may be credited with halting his slide. If he comes up short people may wonder if this lost Sunday, lost him the race.

1930 EST (Dem) and 2000 EST GOP Saturday marked 120 hours (five days) to the Iowa caucuses. You could accurately say at 1530 EST tomorrow that the Iowa caucuses “begin in 100 hours.”

Obama unveiled a new argument for his candidacy today: He beats all the GOPers in head to head matchups. A small problem: It isn’t true if you go by the RCP averages But he is not resting on that dubious claim. His stump now includes two five minute sections: one to rebut HRC’s “only experience makes change” argument; one for Edwards’ “change comes from confrontation” theme.

HRC offers a harrowing tale to let everyone know she is none too thrilled that Obama “tea”ed off on her yesterday. Watch her remarks at Aaron Brun’s post in the FNC Embed Blog.

And Edwards, perhaps feeling a tad bit of pressure from the Obama campaign’s relentless criticisms of third party efforts, takes a pledge.

Huckabee is still defending all that “Pakistan illegal immigrant” stuff but he has really found a groove with his Romney attacks. McCain’s NH crowds are B-I-G, BIG. Seeing reports that some of the press and staff were stuck outside (literally out in the cold) listening through open windows today (that’s good advance work). He did not push against Romney but, after yesterday’s ad, perhaps he feels like he has made his point (for now).

Romney on the other hand isn’t finished with either of them yet. An IA mailer hit mailboxes today on Huckabee’s law & order record and a NH TV ad focusing on McCain’s immigration record filled the airwaves.

Rudy is still out there somewhere plotting. Though announcing that he will spend Caucus night in Florida indicates he doesn’t expect a surprise showing in Iowa. Or maybe that is what he wants us to think.

Guiliani greets supporters at packed bakery in Indianola, Iowa. Less than a block away, Huckabee wrapped up a “meet the candidate.” Crowds just five days before the caucuses have been large, at least relative to the small venues the candidate’s staffs have arranged.

Earlier in the day, Mitt Romney greeted another packed house in Pella, Iowa at the Smokey Row Coffee shop. Most of the candidates have shortened their stump speeches and have stopped taking questions in order to avoid unforced errors in the final stretch and to save time and pack in more events per day.

Gloves off doesn’t cover it. More like knives out and sharpened for the stretch run.

Mitt unleashes another attack ad on Huckabee citing Condi’s “ludicrous” line (though not perhaps as she meant it). One of Huckabee’s new ads calls his “opponents” (wonder who) “desperate and dishonest” but he wants a real debate, you know, for the kids.

http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=728418

Romney had a gift under the tree (a grenade?) for McCain in the form of a NH ad on taxes and immigration. But did he bring a knife to a gunfight? McCain ad responds with a blistering recitation of editorial opinions on Mitt (phony? ouch) that the governor thinks is (at least) a step over the line.

http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=728416

Huckabee puts Pakistan and illegal immigration together and comes up with a stew that may have a little too much salt. He also defended McCain’s honor in light of Mitt attack ad. Enemy of my enemy?

And Rudy wants to be part of the conversation (didn’t anyone notice the 9/11 ad?) but since he is not a player in the early states he is having a hard time.

Dems still debating Pakistan. Did Axelrod cross the line? Obama says it is HRC’s campaign’s fault. Does HRC know anything more about foreign policy that what she learnt at tea time?

Check out the blow by blows at:

Embed’s Blog

A Rudy Giuliani campaign volunteer has resigned 48 hours after making derogatory comments about Muslims.

Aides said Saturday morning that John Deady, co-chairman of New Hampshire Veterans for Rudy, is no longer associated with the campaign after telling multiple media outlets this week that he believed Giuliani was the best candidate to drive Muslims “back to their caves.”

Deady, an 80-year old WWII veteran, told the British newspaper, The Guardian, earlier this week that Giuliani has “the knowledge and the judgement to attack one of the most difficult problems in current history and that is the rise of the Muslims…we need to keep the feet to the fire and keep pressing these people until we defeat or chase them back to their caves or in other words get rid of them.”

Asked to clarify what he meant by “the Muslims,” Deady told the Talking Points Memo blog that he did not distinguish between “good muslims and bad Muslims.” Below is a video excerpt of the Guardian interview.

Official Statement from Rudy Giuliani New Hampshire Chairman Wayne Semprini:

“Mr. Deady offered his resignation from his volunteer position in the campaign and I accepted his resignation.”

The NH co chairman of veterans for Rudy has now tendered his resignation!!

Rudy Giuliani’s campaign was caught unawares when asked tonight about reports that the co-chair of “New Hampshire Veterans for Rudy” had made anti muslim statements to the Guardian and the liberal Talkingpointsmemo.com.

This story is spreading fast on liberal blogs.

After several post midnight calls between staffers Rudy Giuliani aides tell Fox News that if the anti muslim quotes & sentiments attributed to 80 year old WWII veteran John Deady prove accurate, they will ask him to separate himself from the campaign immediately.

THE NUMBERS!

Iowa has STUNNING influence BUT breathtakingly LOW TURNOUT!!

The first in the nation state has three mllion ppl and 2 million registered voters.

(D-619K, R-595K I- 766K)

How many are expected to take advantage of Iowa’s unique opportunity to set the presidential campaigns’ trajectory???
…a paltry 225 thousand.

THAT MAY PROVE GENEROUS!!

Optimistic Republican Party turnout models are for 85 to 95 thousand caucus goers.

That means when polls show Huckabee and Romney within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 4,750 votes plus AND/OR minus…in otherwords at most 9500 caucus goers. That’s a paper thin difference,

Democratic party officials are loathe to estimate but based on 2004 they don’t dispute a guess at 125 thousand.

That means when polls show Clinton and Obama are within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 6,250 votes plus
AND/OR minus….in other words at most 12,500 caucus goers.
That too is a paper thin difference.

To reiterate; out of 3 million ppl…approximately 220 thousand are expected to vote…that’s 7.3%
of the population or 1 out of 15 people.

Among registered voters it’s 11% or basically 1 in 10 registered voters.

In Iowa’s defense, the caucus is a burden to voters and that means those who turnout are deeply motivated and informed.
That is why the campaigns call it an organizational test. Getting out your vote is like finding needles in Iowa’s frozen haystacks.
Iowa is also an expectations game…in recent days the toss up nature of the race means expectations for many candidates are high..and the stakes even higher.

It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

Anti-gun liberals think of the catch phrase “God and Guns” as a pejorative and often use it to ridicule republicans for pandering. Not Mike Huckabee, an avid hunter of duck, who explains hunters keep wildlife alive.

He bagged one pheasant then jetted to Florida to bag some campaign cash. Unlike Rudy Giuliani who is actually campaigning in Florida as his firewall, Huckabee could just as easily have been in L-A, NY or Texas…he’s after money and it happens to be in the Sunshine state today. Right now his campaign priorities are all about Iowa, then a good showing in New Hampshire, and another winning performance in South Carolina. Anything less and he may eventually wind up in Arkansas’s equivalent of the political happy hunting ground.

9 days and the countdown to Iowa’s first in the nation caucuses is on.
Shifts in momentum and polls will be fast and furious.
The early states are all about expectations.
Huckabee faces high expectations, he’s under fire as long on style but short on substance and fiscal and national security conservatism. He has precious little going organizationally in subsequent states.
Romney’s year long lead in leadoff Iowa and NH is gone. He’s underfire as a wellfunded phoney and panderer who flipflopped right on social issues to run for president, and inflates his resume and experiences.
He’s attacking Huck (who’s under fire from a chorus of establishment GOPers) as weak on crime and illegal immigration in Iowa. Mitt’s slamming McCain in NH for opposing the Bush tax cuts.
McCain has surged into a first place tie with Romney in anti tax NH. But, like Huckabee, McCain has cash and organizational problems outside of NH.
Rudy Giuliani welcomed the holiday interruption of what was a VERY rough patch. He has been slipping in the polls, absent from headlines and openly admitting he will lose states and his strategy has people worried.
It is hard to explain Fred Thompson. He has a shot at third in Iowa. That could give him some steam in S.C. but his fate may hinge more on others flaming out rather than him going out and winning it.