NO FRONTRUNNER
Mitt claims the pro-growth economic message with Michigan, NH solidified Mac’s strong security message and Huck in Iowa got the jump on social and religious conservatives…3 winners with distinct messages, and with strengths and weaknesses regionally and on core GOP issues…There is no front-runner.
SC was always THE state for southerner Fred Thompson to win…failing here could eliminate him.
But McCain has long viewed SC (with a high per capita population of retired and active military) as key to his long term viability.
And because as much as 60% of the South Carolina GOP vote is evangelical Huck needs to win here too!
A 3 way do or die???
ABSOLUTELY NOT!
Now the race is about delegate counting with all the candidates planning for a long war of attrition beyond February 5th. When you look at the count and the map there is little incentive for anyone to bail out regardless of the outcome of South Carolina .
States allocating pledged delegates to date:
Iowa, Wyoming (GOP), New Hampshire, Michigan
Source: Real Clear Politics
Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)
| Candidate | Delegates |
|---|---|
| Rudy Giuliani | 1 |
| Mike Huckabee | 21 |
| Duncan Hunter | 1 |
| John McCain | 19 |
| Ron Paul | 2 |
| Mitt Romney | 42 |
| Fred Thompson | 6 |
| Total | 92 |
As for Giuliani, he put all his eggs in Florida’s winner-take-all basket. There are 57 delegates to be won there.
He is tied with McCain. If McCain wins South Carolina that could propel to a win of those 57 delegates.
| Florida Republican Primary | ||||||||
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
|
||||||||
| Poll | Date | McCain | Giuliani | Huckabee | Romney | Thompson | Paul | Spread |
| RCP Average | 01/07 to 01/13 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 18.3 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | Tie |
| SurveyUSA | 01/11 – 01/13 | 25 | 23 | 18 | 18 | 9 | 4 | McCain +2.0 |
| Quinnipiac | 01/09 – 01/13 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 7 | 5 | McCain +2.0 |
| Rasmussen | 01/09 – 01/12 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 11 | 5 | McCain +1.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 01/07 – 01/07 | 19 | 24 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 5 | Giuliani +5.0 |
Tags: delegates, Florida, Real Clear Politics, south carolina
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Carl
How come when Mitt was leading delegates going into Michigan, all the media talk was do or die? Now in SC, when you have three in need of victory (more important MONEY!), you state it is not do or die?? If McCain loses to one of the Southern guys in SC, then FL he will be all done.
Mitt clearly has the advantage now. The reason, even if he does not win SC, he should by all accounts win the less talked about NV (which has more delegates then SC)…..then FL with all the canidates 5pts apart………..People don’t realized, Mitt has a very strong ground game in FL, having built up a good network and backing of all JEB Bush’s former team. JEB is still a strong presence there, even though he has not endorsed Romney, with his former team running Romney-Florida, I think you will see a good finish. But the heading to Feb 5th, Romney has the strong advantage because there are several upcoming markets that cost alot to advertise in, Cali, NY, ILL, FL, etc. So some canidates will have to pick and chose (cherry pick) states for delegates, while Mitt can advertise in them all should he chose. Mark my words, an SC lose for McCain and he will deflate fast. On other thing to watch, is after Huckabee beat Romney in Iowa, it opened up NH for McCain. I can see the same thing in SC with Thompson. Many in your focus poll after debate clearly thought Thompson won (which I do to), but were afraid to vote for him, or that he could not win. Now that its basically wide open again, they my just vote for the guy they thought won the debate. So this win is good for our Romney-Michigan team, but I also think it boosts Thompson. SC could deliver a death blow to McCain/Hucabee.
Go Mitt!!!
Lets hope Ron Paul wins Florida and keep both both McCain and Rudy out of it …Ron Paul is the guy
“No Frontrunner”. Mr. Cameron, do you know how to read? Did you fail out of math while you were in school. Mitt has twice the delegates of any other GOP candidate and nearly 30% more total votes than the nearest competitor. If that isn’t a frontrunner (so far) then I don’t know what is. I here it all the time on these blogs about how bias you are toward Mitt, this headline just reaffirms your stance and your mentality.
It is common knowledge that the news professionals need information to report, but my family has always professed, when asked by anyone, that this process is supposed to be a secret ballot. Shame on the people who answer the exit polls, you don’t have to respond with any answer other than it is a secret. And for the professionals, you know people can lie to avoid answering your questions, especially in front of others they know would not like their true answers. Just my own humble opinion!!
THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU! Thank you for grouping Huckabee’s voters as “Religious and Social Conservatives”. That is SO much more accurate than “Evangelicals”. Keep it up! I also heard you say this on Fox Last night. Good Job! I hope your words spread like wild fire.
For anyone thinking about voting for Fred Thompson, why would you want to vote for anybody who’s spent time as a Senator, and worked in Hollywood, and worst of all was a Lawyer in Washington, sounds like three trust worthy careers doesn’t it, NOT!!!
Carl, I am confused by Fox News and your anti-Romney bias (except Sean Hannity and Bill O’Rielly). When Huckabee beat Romney IA (by 10, 00 votes) you talked of the Huckaboom, and when McCain won NH your headlines were “Mac is Back” and he is the clear frontrunner and all but assured him a victory in MI with the momentum out of NH. In every state Romney has finished either first or second and yet you always say every state is do or die for him.
Now Mitt Romney has beaten both of them in the largest state to vote to date and should be the clear frontrunner all of a sudden it is not do or die for Thompson, McCain or Huckabee in SC. Mitt Romney not only won MI he thoroguhly dominated MI. He won by 80,00votes which is a margin almost as big as the total votes as McCain got in NH. You try to discount the win by saying that he won because of his father and roots in MI, yet fail to mention he was trailing McCain a week ago with the same background and father. The reason he was so dominant in MI is because he cares about the economy and Jobs and McCain has a defeatist attitude aobut lost jobs. Also conservative and very conservatives Republicans came out in large numbers to support him becasue they are tired of the liberal positions of McCain and Huckabee.
Romney is a TOAD. I think I’m going to wait to see who Brittany Spears is voting for and will follow suit. She’s so smart surely she’ll know the direction our country should go.
Laughing………………really loud laughing.
Actually I’m going for Fred and I’m hoping that he’ll have a BIG lift in SC!
Human Events has an excellent article which highlights McCain’s abysmal fight against tax cuts. This guy is a big government, wealth-distribution, socialist liberal.
Check out the article here: ===> http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24421
John McCain is anything but a conservative.
How can you say that there is no frontrunner??? Romney has more delegates than his next two candidates combined. That seems to me to be running in front, aka a frontrunner. Yes, Rudy can catapault in front with a win, but as of this moment, Romney is indeed the frontrunner.
Romney’s won 2 states and came in second in the other 3. No other candidate can even come close to that record.
It genuinely seems like you’re carrying water for some other candidate, perhaps any other candidate because objectively, Romney’s way out in front.
As I’ve said before, I’m not a Romney supporter at all, but “fair and balanced” ought to be, you know, fair. And balanced.
Go Fred!!
After weeks of saying “do or die” for Romney, he continues to be the front-runner. He seems to be getting stronger with each state. ROMNEY IN 2008!!!!!!
Breaking news: Team Huckabee has discovered that the Club for Growth ads against Huckabee have been financed by wealthy Romney supporters. I was wondering why the Club for Greed was attacking Huckabee when his fiscal record as governor is better than Romney’s. Just Google “tax burden under Huckabee and Romney” and you will see that the tax burden increased more in Massachussets than it did in Arkansas under the relevant time periods.
It appears that Arkansas got more for their money too in terms of better schools and better roads!
I have been a McCain supporter, but I have started to look real hard at Romney. To be honest, as a conservative republican, I can think of no reason why I shouldn’t support him. He stands for all my ideals, he represents real change, and there appear to be no ghosts in his closet. Beyond all that, I believe he can win it all.
The Hillary Clinton campaign has already spent more than the entire republican field to this point. When is the republican leadership in this country going to get behind someone who can win. I like Thompson, and I like McCain, but my gut tells me Mitt has the best message, the vibrant presence, and the background to give us the best chance.
And here’s a message to the evangelicals and Christian right: as a practicing Roman Catholic, religion is important to me too. While I do not subscribe at all to the Church of Latter Day Saints, I would remiss in failing to acknowledge that every single member of LDS’s I have ever met are among the most devout and good, clean, caring people I know.
It’s all too important this time. I honestly cannot imagine another 4 – 8 years of the Clintons. Mitt Romney lives clean and represents our conservative issues. He knows business, and will, without question, make changes to bring our economy back. Not important to you? Last time I looked the DOW was down over 260 points, and my IRA was taking a huge hit. He is also strong on the war on terror, strong on immigration reform, and if anybody can fix social security and health care, he can do it.
I love McCain too, just don’t think his message has been on target, and, obviously, there are issues with tax cuts and amnesty that loom as problems for him. We don’t need a target.
Have you ever noticed the news media (this article included) represent each candidate with a one word stereotype? The media has effectively packaged each candidate for us in a one word adjective. We have Mitt the growth candidate, McCain the security guy and Huck the religious one. Perhaps it is their own fault due to the campaign rhetoric and the pre-packaged questions at the debates. But I for one have actually listened to some of the candidates ideas concerning security, the economy and the future. I urge people to listen and read about the candidates ideas without the media interpretation over laid. I for one found that Huck is the only one with new, well though out and researched ideas for change. McCain, for all the glory he deserves serving this country, unfortunately is the old guard. Not a fresh idea or thought that we have not heard before. Mitt, well not much to say here either. Mitt’s message is canned ideas and programs based upon polling. His campaign is hollow and based upon nothing other than He is the best looking candidate. Having said all that, the truth is this country needs to get as excited about senate and Congressional elections as they are about a Primary race. This is where actual change can happen.
Hey Carl,
Really wish someone could have Pat Buchanon on. I was listenting to him on talk radio today, and he brought up an amazing point about the harm being done by NAFTA, and the huge trade deficit with China and other countries. This guy should have an audience, and this could be affecting our economy now and in the future.
He’s not entirely wrong in thinking that America is losing it’s identity, and giving away its strength and position in the global economy.
In your primary coverage this evening you noted the quotation so frequently relied upon by Governor Huckabee and others that “…all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights’, and ‘that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness… ‘ But then, as they do, you skipped somehow to an assertion that the Founders had placed god firmly in the Constitution, and by implication, at the root of American law and government. And that’s just not true.
In fact, the line is taken from the Declaration of Independence, and though intended as aspirational and inspirational in nature, its significance was still essentially rhetorical. Further, the full citation continues ‘…to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…’ thus making it clear that regardless of whether the source of those rights was once idealized as being ‘nature’ or ‘nature’s god’, the reliable authority for their affirmation and protection, far from being in any way divine, is drawn exclusively from “We, the people…” through the purely secular conduit of the Constitution, a later document than the Declaration, and one specifically intended as the formal basis of our law and the power of government.
So frequent and self-serving a distortion deserves repeated correction, and perhaps some censure for those who know better but continue to mislead the public so cynically and divisively.
STEVE MERCER
NY NY
THE Huckster is clearly on the decline as proven in MI as a majority of so called Hucks Evangelicals voted for Mitt, It appears that they are starting to see that Huckabee is running for Pastor in chief and is looking to “Take back America for Jesus” …. Not saying that more faith in America would be bad, Just that Hucks brand of religious fervor would carry into the office of president too heavily and I feel that he would pose religious tests to all of his appointeees and we would have the good ole southern boys club… He would be just another Jimmy Carter and be a total disasterous presidency,, He hasn’t a clue on foriegn policy and just dances around serious inquiry into his record… He thinks he knows what americans want in a president and is trying to invent himself and appear Reaganesque with his witty one liners and folksy candor…. But that does not stimulate the economy, nor keep us safe from terrorists, nor show any capacity for having the ability to solve tough problems both foriegn or domestic.. He has no plan to work towards energy independence…. Why is it that Romney is so hated by the other candidates? Its easy see jealosy rear its ugly head.. Mitt is the perfect candidate and has no skeletons to exploit, He beholds to no special interests, a self made man with integrity, honesty and moral clarity that is rare in Washington…. Romney will sweep across America like a wildfire and no amount of attacking will put him down.. Ronmney can put this country back on solid ground and make us again the envy of the world economically and morally.. Go Mitt
Carl
Couple other things that the McCain Camp & Huck supporters should be concerned with out of here in Michigan. Again, like NH, Romney got more of the REPUBLICAN vote than McCain, which going into states without the Independent ‘effect’ will hurt McCain. Also out of Michigan, more evangelics went for Romney over Huckabee. I am Roman Catholic and our family voted for Romney, because he’s the truest social & fiscal conservative (him and Thompson). In talking to my in-laws, who are very old-school Roman Catholic (still believe masses should be in latin!), they said they chose Romney over Huckabee, because of Huckabee’s lack of a true fiscal conservative. They also (don’t know if this could be backlash of some sort), said they voted for Romney because they were upset that his Mormon faith was continually brought up in media. My mother in-law said she equated it to when she was out of highschool, they did the same thing with Kennedy over his Catholic faith. So that really made her sympathetic towards Romney. But again, they thought Huckabee was not that conservative when it came to fiscal record.
Go Mitt!!!!!!!!!!!!1
I do not understand why people hate romney. I have seem much anti-romney newspaper articles. The 3.0 version of romney was im michigan, now he needs version 4.0 for nevada. KNow what you pundits. EACH STATE HAS DIFFERENT ISSUES. Romney is able to meet the needs of many of the states. When romney says he can do something(bring jobs back to mi, he can do it! His record says he can. When he says in nevada he will fight to cut taxes he can, look at his record! ahe is amn of his word. He is a good christain fellow!
GO MITT
Carl,hasn’t been posting some of my posts lately,but if you get this check me out,and don’t regard this just my opinion..It seems that the people of Mormon faith can post this type of thing with no problem at all..What I mention here is right from their literature..so …………………..
I’m asking you Carl , what are you saying,that you,are seperating your self from the Christian society because you are Catholic,or are you saying that you are automatically a Christian because you are Catholic,its My understanding that you’re a Christian because,you’ve given your heart to the Lord…the name above the door on the Church does nothing for you,in your Church or mine,its a personal relationship with the man That died for you….having said that,your defense of the Mormon faith,that believes in many Gods,and in fact believe that God is or was a Man like you and I and has many wives,and rules,on a planet,near a mysterious star,called Kolab., and that they will someday be Gods,and rule their own planet with many wives,this compromise of your faith isn’t it,or can you justify that….somehow ….Look up on saintalive.com,to find out that they don’t think Mary was a virgin,and that Gods name is Elohim according to them….Incidentally saintsalive.com is operted by a man that spent 20yrs in that faith,until He really realized what it was all about
Ron Paul has the policies and is the most grounded in the constitution, which is what this country needs. There is an underlying current in this country to abolish the constitution. Mark my words if we keep voting in liberal presidents like Clinton, Bush (yes Bush), and possibly McCain, Guliani, or Huackabee we will gradually be destroying the very foundation upon which this country was built. Have you seen what happens when a building’s foundation collapses? Bye Bye building. Obviously Ron Paul does not look very presidential nor will he win, but it only goes to show how predjudice the people in this country really are. Since he doesn’t look like a president, he is not considered. Even more evidence of predjudice is how belittled Romney is. He is clearly the front runner and if given fair media analysis would be the republican nominee for president. However, the people in this country, including the vast majority of the media can not conceive of a mormon president. How can you support somebody when you disagree with their religion? I would hope that the media who cries death to bigotry, racism, and other predjudice would be condemning of all the attacks on mormons seen through the campaign. Instead the media joins right in blind to their own predjudice. What a ridiculous country we live in. A bunch of hippocrites. No wonder the rest of the world laughs at us. I remember something in the bible about hypocracy and being condemned for it. Go Ron Paul. Wish people would really look at your platform, because you are definitely the best candidate for the country right now. But you really don’t have a shot.
Bonnie
Romney’s support is growing because of HIS qualities. He has the greatest economic expertise. He has a history of asking meaningful questions, listening, learning, evaluating and LEADING. HE IS A PROVEN PROBLEM SOLVER. HE HAS MANAGED FAILING COMPANIES AND TURNED THEM AROUND INTO PROFITABLE PRODUCTIVE BUSINESSES. He is our best hope for the economy. Romney is a man of integrity who has walked the walk of conservative values his entire life: One wife, No affairs, Strong family, Impeccable character. Romney will bring new vision and fresh voices to Washington where HE will institute efficiency in government and control spending. He strictly upholds our constitution and stands for states rights and individual rights. Fox News has favored Huckabee and McCain, but in a democracy the people get to decide. One vote a piece for pundit and citizen alike! So I encourage Fox News, which previously was my favorite t.v. station, to re-examine Romney’s many strengths. Give Romney FAIR and Balanced treatment. He very well could be our next president!
You people who support McCain amaze me. This guy has been nothing but a pain in the @#% to Conservatives over the last 8 years. Wise up, he is in this for himself. The reason there hasn’t been a clear frontrunner is that no one is a real leader of the conservative movement. The only person that comes close is Fred Thompson. You want a straight shooter type of guy who has been consistent, closely look at Thompson.
Mike
Is this a joke? No frontrunner? Twice the wins, over twice the delegates, way more total votes, and way more money raised. After the NV caucus and SC primary on Saturday, he will widen the gap in the delegate count even more. Carl and CNN and everyone else can continue to push McCain and Huckabee on us and say there is no frontrunner all they want, but with Mitt hits 1,191 they will have to accept the facts.
Go Romney 2008!!!
Of all the news stations I have been watching Fox more than the others because I felt it was a bit more balanced. I’ve been hearing some things on a regular basis now that in my opinion is out right wrong. Carl Cameron’s quick piece in the van going between camps in South Caralina was very disappointing. His outright resentment for Mitt Romney is so obvious. What happened to just reporting the news without sharing your personal bias to any one candidate? Perhaps Carl shouldn’t be apart of “You Decide 2008″. You folks are not reporting correct information. Why are you all afraid of reporting that Romney is leading in the delegate count? CNN asked Romney if his timing on his victory speech in Michigan that knocked McCain’s speech off the air was on purpose. I was amazed that O’Reilly posed the same question. It is so upsurd!! Did anyone notice that Romney had enough class not to make an issue of the fact that McCain’s victory speech in New Hampshire knocked his speech off the air? Come on people get back to just reporting the news and don’t mix your personal agendas into it! Go Mitt!!!!!!What is up with these people that spend so much time putting down other religious groups. All I can say is members of the Church of Jesus Christ spend their time teaching of Christ and striving to live Christlike lives and don’t spend valuable time spreading seeds of discord and strife among religious groups. People are allowed to worship how they choose. That seems right to me!
Glad to see that somebody’s done their homework…good post Jason…it doesn’t take much to find these things out, but I guess money shines,but a Government big enough to give you everything you want as Romney suggests is also strong enough to take everything you have…and probably will if his reputation says anythng at all
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