First in the South
Turnout is steady in the low country and lighter in the upstate.
South Carolina Republican Party officials expect half a million votes will be cast provided the weather isn’t too lousy in the upstate.
Both Mike Huckabee and John McCain SHOULD win South Carolina. The latest American Research Group Poll taken 1/17-1/18 shows:
Huckabee 33% McCain 26% Thompson 21% Romney 9% undecided 4%
This is a huge jump for Huckabee who was in second place two days ago. AND MOST pollsters and state political pros will tell you that about 1 in 5 are undecided. I’ve found undecideds at both Huckabee and McCain events without really even trying. The McCain camp said it was looking at survey data suggesting they were breaking evenly with Huckabee among undecideds. But its tough for pollsters to catch which way undecideds break when it happens on the final day. Though I suspect the gap is not a big as what ARG has pickedup, I think my old pal pollster Dick Bennett may have found on the phone what is visible on the ground, Huckabee has buzz and his supporters have more intensity than McCain.
Huckabee and McCain teams both say it’s close. Huck’s camp is more confident- But McCainiacs say they believe McCain will withstand an acknowledged late Huck surge.
Huckabee, an ordained baptist Minister, is looking for big numbers from The Palmetto State’s largest denomination; Southern Baptists. They expect 60% of the GOP vote to be evangelical christians. The Huckabee campaign says it feels like Iowa. The Redeem the Vote folks from Alabama are here and may (again) be a big part of Huckabee’s success mobilizing and uniting the youth and mega church vote. Chuck Norris and Rick Flair are packing in crowds and Governor Huck is a heckuva a closer. Huckabee may never find a state (with the exception of Arkansas) MORE friendly to his populism.
Christian conservatives in South Carolina and nationwide care about security; economic and national. They are the wild card.
They are not monolithically wedded to voting only on social issues. Many are fiscal and security conservatives, which means McCain can win a good percentage.
This state is also a bastion of PATRIOTISM and SERVICE like no other, and McCain will not likely find a more receptive audience for his national security/anti-spending message. There are more military households here than anywhere in the country. McCain puts it in historical terms often saying no state has ever provided more service men and women to our national defense than S.C. McCain has an impressive roster of Carolina big shots and the Veterans for McCain network is better here than anywhere. But his crowds Friday and buzz were small compared to Huckabee. Several other polls showed Huckabee pulling to a tie today.
Across the state republicans are rockribbed conservative. Military households are not a monolithic voting block either, they care about social issues and Huck can compete for them too.
The weather for the upstate is cold with rain and light snow. THIS IS THE SOUTH – 3 inches of snow and they close schools during the week.
Fred Thompson does feel like a solid third. He said today he would talk to his Mom after the Primary and assess the situation. He could play in Fla’s panhandle on the 29th and on Super Tuesday could do very well in Georgia and Alabama. It is not what Thompson had hoped for. Last year was rocky, but as a southerner he figured if he did not take off in Iowa the next and perhaps only other place to start winning would be S.C. .
It looks like 4th for Mitt Romney who spent well more than 4 million bucks here. Half of all ads have been his. His departure from SC means the whispering about his mormon faith will likley never get loud enough to get much notice, it has been ugly.
On the other hand he has won the Nevada Caucuses Saturday which offers MORE delegates than South Carolina because of RNC sanctions for non-compliance with party calendar goals. Mitt is nowhere near out of it, regardless. He is already counting delegates and deciding which states he should try to cherry pick 2/5. Nevada will allow him to say he has proven he can win all over the country. Romney is a tough competitor, with ample cash and a crack team. Romney has more delegates, more, votes, and a better work product to date than all his rivals. Don’t count him out.
Tags: mccain, 2008, Huckabee, South Carolina primary
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CARL CAMERON:
Speaking of Romney you said: “His departure from SC means the whispering about his mormon faith will likley never get loud enough to get much notice, it has been ugly”
Would you care to elaborate? Why is it that no one in the media is brave enough to expose the anti-Mormon bigotry that is going on in these “Christian” states, and that Huckabee himself has been pushing it?
How about embedding a reporter inside one of these “mega churches” to hear what they have to say about the evils of Mormonism, and that the congregation should vote for someone who has the same beliefs and values as they do.
YES CARL, I AGREE, IT IS UGLY! AND IT DOES NEED TO BE EXPOSED!
Cameron,
I am very disappointed in the presentation of the nomination of our president here. The whole tone of the Fox website is that this is a simply a popularity contest. Isn’t the nomination process one of winning delegates to the parties national convention and then the parties candiates are presented to the nation for consideration of becoming president.
The issue I have is that all the data is based on some poll taken by some news source. This is interesting information and might make headlines. But the critical information is how many delegates are available across the nation probably state by state and then how many have been WON by what candidates. This would truely show who might really be nominated by each party.
The problem i am having is that when reviewing the Fox web site it appears that McCann is winning but i thought i had heard on the radio that Rommey is actually leading in this contest. The same goes for Obama and Clinton, one could come away with the understanding that Obama is leading but in truth Clinton is leading.
Hopefully you can present to us a easily understood message that actually educates me and others on both the process and the current results as we go through this year.
Thank you
Bill
“Mitt is nowhere near out of it, regardless. He is already counting delegates and deciding which states he should try to cherry pick 2/5. Nevada will allow him to say he has proven he can win all over the country. Romney is a tough competitor, with ample cash and a crack team. Don’t count him out.”
Why Carl, how wonderful of you to say such nice things about Mitt!
Whats up with the FOX coverage of Mitt Romey. Obviously Carl likes McCain ???
If the good people of South Carolina were such ‘rockribbed’ conservatives, there is no way that either Huckabee or McCain would even show enough points to matter in this thing. Therefore, maybe South Carolina is not as conservative as they think they are. Just another group of moderates who want everyone to think that their state matters most. Straight Talk That!
Cameron…Are you sure you don’t collect a check from Huckabee’s campaign? You should because you are transparent (especially the TV spots) in your coverage as a supporter for him to win the GOP nomination. Whatever happened to “fair and balanced” coverage. McCain is obviously your second choice too. You’re not fooling anyone.
JW
CAN YOU PLEASE BE FAIR AND BALANCED? WHY DON’T ANY OF YOU REPORTERS TALK ABOUT OBAMA AND HIS MUSLIM AFFILIATION? http://www.islamichope.org
Mike Huckabee is our choice to be President; and, we’ll support him over the other candidates. As with Reagan and Bush II, Huckabee is being significantly underestimated by everyone. This will become evident as each primary occurs. Huckabee’s support will continue to build, even as the major establishment media and polical control groups try to “contain” him. Let’s hope he gets Secret Service protection as soon as possible. The “best” future of the United States lies with Mike Huckabee at this point in history.
It looks, sadly, as if the Christians in South Carolina are going to go with their religion instead of the candidates track record. I’m a Christian myself, but I would never let that keep me from looking at the cold hard facts of a candidates record. I personally have huge problems with Mormonism as a faith, but that wouldn’t keep me from voting for a Mormon as President if he has solid conservative values. I lean more towards Thompson or Romney based on record. I’m a former military man, so I admire McCain’s military record, but he’s butted heads with the Republican party too much for me to trust him to hold to conservative values.
Oh, and good job on the blog Carl. I’ve always thought you were one of the best reporters on Fox News.
Carl,
I just don’t think you “GET IT”. I’ve been a devout, chronic FOX viewer since day ONE, and now when you come on the air, I turn to another channel.
Instead of noting that the Republican Party [with it's regrettable lack of "will" to proudly define itself---as it did with Ronald Reagan]…has provided us with a series of several aberrent “primary/caucuses”…in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Caroline…which are not at all typical or indicative of any true Republican base….and so will all be eventually and easily discounted because of the invitation of Democrat, Independent interlopers or because of excessive evangelicals………..you seem to diminish or disparage Romney and his victories in truly key Republican and National states…such as Michigan, where the economy and labor votes are to be found and swayed, and those out West and in the Mountain States where the Republican party is now centered.
You’ve gotten it backwards……and seem clueless on all this. Do you really in your deepest, latent, teenage fantasies actually think McCain has a prayer of winning the Republican nominatoin. McCain is just “Hillary in drag”. I’ve been a lifetime Republican Supporter, after my initial days as a Kennedy Democrat, and if McCain ever won the nomination, I would not only not vote for him, but would vote for anyone running as a third party candidate, since he would essentially ruin the Republican Party. I have been an ardent supporter and worker for Republican Causes for decades and I would do ANYTHING to stop McCain. Why? Because he is a mentally unbalanced, egomaniacal, lying, old politics, self-aggrandizing, saboteur of all Conservative values.
One of these days, you might get this, Carl. But by then I will have long ago turned off FOX News.
For the first time ever, I went the SC polls today … unsure of just who I’d vote for … I finally decided on Sen McCain … I think he is the strongest candidate from the GOP with a shot at beating Hillary or Obama.
http://www.votesmart.org/issue_overview.php
If you want to know how they have realy stood, check out this site, It shows how they voted on Every issue. please check this out before you vote for a candidate.
I agree, Carl definately leans Mac and Huck. Too bad, as I believe Romney to look and act more presidential than either of the Huckemac team. Man Mac is just to old and little and weird and his record sucks for us TRUE conservatives and Huck, well, he just wants to change the Constitution—–?? and everyones worried about Romney’s religion, yeah right! Who”s the religious zealot.
I have been so grateful for FOX over the years for finally bringing a conservative voice to the news. In the past, FOX reporting seemed to be without bias when it came to reporting on conservative issues. Unfortunately, this election cycle has just about turned my stomach. I am still undecided who my vote will go to for president, but I do know that I can no longer tolerate watching Carl Cameron’s obvious bias for Huckabee being broadcast constantly on FOX. Every loss by Huckabee is spun to appear more positive and the buddy-to-buddy interviews that Cameron has done with him have truly been beyond the pale.
It almost sickens me to say this, but I have almost totally tuned out FOX for this election cycle in favor of the other more liberal outlets. Even with their obvious fondness for McCain I can at least get some objective reporting from them about the Republican candidates, their delegate counts, momentum, etc.
I am reading this morning on Drudge that a new Rasmussen poll is coming out showing Romney ahead of McCain in Florida and Guiliani is looking stronger too. I might have to tune in to FOX briefly today to see how Cameron and the other Huckabites are going to spin this one to seem of little or no consequence.