McCain has to raise a ton of money, he needs a bigger team, he needs to fold the RNC into his message machine, he needs a back channel to coordiate with the White House.  He needs to get the GOP’s House and Senate campaign committees in sync.  He must wrangle the GOP special interests into some sort of a cohesive machine.  He needs an electoral college strategy, a popular vote strategy, and a long term general election plan.  He needs to start defining the opposition and chart out his positive and negative messaging  evolution through November.  He’ll need to run new ads.  He’ll need to identify his battlegrounds for the fall.  He’ll need to carefully review the calendar to see what events to use and avoid.

Some things are easily anticipated: Memorial Day, the 4th of July, Labor day, conventions, debates.

But there are other things; sheduled reports to congress from the DOD and the CIA on Iraq and the world,  economic reports from the Fed Chairman and the admin on the economy.  The budget battle will be another major issue that comes in the fall.

In the meantime McCain will continue to visit and campaign in the remaining primary states but his message will shift to general election positioning.

Mike Huckabee is likely to beat him in several more states.  But even during intermittent defeats McCain will find will opportunity to shore up his conservative credentials and start trying to define the fall race.

While Obama and Clinton battle, McCain would like to concentrate on framing democrats.  But he’ll have a second concurrent task with rallying his own party.

He will have to unite senators who have resented his maverick streak. He will have to unite house members who always resent senators.  He will not have to overcome the fact that no senator has won the WH since JFK, because his democratic rival is gonna be a Senator too.

But make no mistake, while there may not be as much intensity in plain view, behind the scenes the scramble is on.   McCain knows against democrats he now has a head start in planning for the fall…he also knows he needs every break he can get to prepare….the McCain Machine is in production

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s departure from the race leaves conservative voters to Mike Huckabee- who reaped the benefits in Ks and La.  John McCain will increasingly win over conservatives as the party unifies, but Huckabee has several more surprises up his sleeve.  Do not underestimate the HUCK!

Romney ran a text book campaign.  Yes, there were plenty of mistakes and errors but they were largely minor.  For the most part they did it right.

He got out to Ia and NH early and often. He staked out conservative positions and his discipline in retail politicking was unrivaled on the trail – even by the 101 town hall mtgs held by McCain.   Romney could not however get over several humps.  He was socially moderate only three years ago and could not shed the flipflopper image.  His wealth was never a liability, it was always an asset.  But his rivals were occasionally able to use it to cast him as a spoiled rich guy.  More than anything voters were suspicious of Romney, too often they would actually bemoan how perfect Romney can seem.

 Voters would look at Romney’s rhetoric, his record, his resume and his family and see so much success, prosperity and optimism..they would find it difficult to relate and become suspicious.

Romney’s was one of the most professional campaigns I have ever covered.  His staff was excellent and will be in high demand for the general.  The governor and his family are all terrific.  The Romney’s are a wonderful bunch.  I will miss chasing them around ….

Thanks Governor, see you at the Convention and in Iowa and New Hampshire in  4 years……;)

Yes!! of of course he is thinking about it..it is not appropriate for him to discuss publicly but, he is a do-er and any smart bet is on him doing it again.

The second try seems to be working pretty well for McCain afterall….

When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.

Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;

1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire

2) Giuliani was leading the national polls

3) Fred Thompson held early promise.

Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.

McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.

Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.

McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.

“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.

“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain

Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.

It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.

The truth is he may be able to come in second in several southern and conservative states including Ga., Al., Mo., Ok, and his home state of Arkansas. He could even squeak out wins if things go right. Every vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, or at least that is what Mitt Romney himself has said.

Do not forget!! Out of the 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 GOP convention that takes place 2/5 –10 are winner take all but in 11 contests delegates are awarded proportionately to the top three. Mitt and Huck will have some delegates even if they win no states.

Romney surrogates have been blasting Huckabee in many of those states and others. Publicly Romney is focused on McCain but in several conservative states where Huckabee is popular the Romney camp is attacking Huckabee too.

Huckabee was asked if a poor Super Tuesday showing might end his candidacy today and said not only does he not want to quit he can’t! His explanation is that

“it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog”

and he’s got plenty left. Furthermore Huckaboomers want him to stay in and Huck himself believes that if republicans don’t pick him they should pick McCain and not Romney

Huckabee’s attacks on Romney have many speculating that the former Ark Gov is auditioning for the McCain veep spot.

McCAIN PLAYS TO DEFEAT MITT ONCE AND FOR ALL IN MASSACHUSETTS

With a commanding lead in most super Tuesday states GOP front-runner John MCCain is looking for a put away punch in Mitt Romney’s home state of Massachusetts.

McCain hopes to win a big majority of the 1,023 nomination delegates that are up for grabs in the 21 states that have contests 2/5 (there are 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 state convention,
Ten of the races are winner take all) But Romney has signaled that may not push him out of the race.

The McCain campaign believes beating Romney “in the state where people know him best” would be a decisive blow that would force Romney to reconsider and ultimately withdraw.  However all the latest polls show Romney with a decisive lead in the bay state.

As FOX was first to report Wednesday, McCain plans to watch the Super Bowl and campaign in Boston!! Sunday night and Monday morning.

McCain has TV ads on the air in Massachusetts via a current national cable buy. Aides say they are going up with local radio spots tonight. In addition Former Massachusetts Governor(s) Jane Swift and Paul Cellucci both have full schedules of surrogate campaign events on behalf of McCain – they are not saying nice things about Mitt.

Finally the campaign has launched an aggressive robo telephone call blitz and expects helpful editorials from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald newspapers which have both endorsed McCain.

Romney has said repeatedly to FOX NEWS and others in recent days that he plans to continue after Super Tuesday and will assess his best path forward after the results are tabulated.

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

Florida now looks like a TWO man race: The latest Poll taken on 1/22 and 1/23 shows Rudy decline:

Romney 30

McCain 26

Giuliani 18

Huckabee 15

400 likely GOP voters, surveyed 1/22-23, Margin of error +/- 5%

Polling Data

Back in March of 07 at the CPAC convention in DC several former Fred Thompson Congressional staffers told me Fred Thompson was thinking about a run. Some of his Tennessee cronies had been talking him up too.

I reported first that he was eyeing a White House bid. At the time several insiders told me OFF THE RECORD that it was largely a trial ballon to guage his popularity and float his name as a possible vice presidential nominee. I was sworn to silence.

Those insiders have now lifted the conditions on our conversations. From March to August of 07 through postponed announcement days, staff changes, firings, resignations and general disarray the Thompson camp was stunned by the incredibly positive response and didn’t really know how to manage it. The trial balloon soared mighty high and he found himself being dragged into a race that he was not even sure how to run.

He took third in Iowa and Third in South Carolina, after which his aides openly suggested the #2 slot on the ticket. The circle has been closed, and Fred Dalton Thompson is waiting to see if he gets the call from the eventual nominee.

He has not said who he will endorse. He is friends with John McCain. But if he doesn’t throw his support behind anyone …it makes it easier to be picked by everyone.

It can be painful to watch candidates make concessions speeches after a do or die situation.

Click here to see it:

Expect to hear something as early as Monday. Fredheads need and deserve to know what’s going on.

TEN DAYS IS A LONG TIME.

In fact there have not been ten uninterrupted campaign days in this entire campaign. The ten days before Iowa included Christmas and New Years.

Since August John McCain has been the come-from-behind-underdog. For the first time in the race he is going to get the full front-runner treatment: intense scrutiny and relentless criticism from his rivals.

Huckabee’s gracious praise for McCain in tonight’s concession speech smacked of a short list audition. He promised to remain in the nominating “process” for a long time, and said he still believes it will end “in the White House.” But there were moments when he spoke about his campaign in the past tense, and he didn’t say in what capacity he believed he would end up in Casa Blanca.

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