Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s departure from the race leaves conservative voters to Mike Huckabee- who reaped the benefits in Ks and La.  John McCain will increasingly win over conservatives as the party unifies, but Huckabee has several more surprises up his sleeve.  Do not underestimate the HUCK!

Romney ran a text book campaign.  Yes, there were plenty of mistakes and errors but they were largely minor.  For the most part they did it right.

He got out to Ia and NH early and often. He staked out conservative positions and his discipline in retail politicking was unrivaled on the trail – even by the 101 town hall mtgs held by McCain.   Romney could not however get over several humps.  He was socially moderate only three years ago and could not shed the flipflopper image.  His wealth was never a liability, it was always an asset.  But his rivals were occasionally able to use it to cast him as a spoiled rich guy.  More than anything voters were suspicious of Romney, too often they would actually bemoan how perfect Romney can seem.

 Voters would look at Romney’s rhetoric, his record, his resume and his family and see so much success, prosperity and optimism..they would find it difficult to relate and become suspicious.

Romney’s was one of the most professional campaigns I have ever covered.  His staff was excellent and will be in high demand for the general.  The governor and his family are all terrific.  The Romney’s are a wonderful bunch.  I will miss chasing them around ….

Thanks Governor, see you at the Convention and in Iowa and New Hampshire in  4 years……;)

Yes!! of of course he is thinking about it..it is not appropriate for him to discuss publicly but, he is a do-er and any smart bet is on him doing it again.

The second try seems to be working pretty well for McCain afterall….

When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.

Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;

1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire

2) Giuliani was leading the national polls

3) Fred Thompson held early promise.

Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.

McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.

Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.

McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.

“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.

“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain

Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.

It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.

SHOW ME STATE IS A 3 MAN SHOWDOWN, TENNESSEE IS A TOSSUP TOO, MCCAIN LOOKS FOR ALABAMA GETAWAY.

• Missouri: McCain 32% Huckabee 29% Romney 28%
• Tennessee: McCain 32% Romney 29% Huckabee 23%
• Alabama: McCain 38% Huckabee 30%

Missouri is winner take all with 58 delegates. The latest ARG polls out today shows Huckabee leading 31-29 over McCain with Romney at 27.

McCain appears to have a hammer lock on NY, NJ, Ct, DE, and Az,,,for a total of 251 delegates to start. He leads in Delaware 41-35 over Romney in the latest ARG poll.

Romney has Utah in hand where there is a large Mormon population and 36 winner take all delegates. Massachusetts has 43 delegates and Romney has a big lead but it is not winner take all and McCain is playing to win there. Romney is also making a move on West Virginia’s 18 winner take all delegates, and competing in Co., Mn., Mt., and N.D.
Mike Huckabee leads the RCP average of polls in Georgia based on a big bump in a recent Insider Advantage survey. Huck trailed in two earlier polls, Georgia has 72 non-winner take all delegates. Arkansas should be a gimmee for Huck with its 34 proportionately awarded delegates.

There is also a poll from WSMV-TV that shows Huckabee leading in Tennessee 24-23 over McCain.

McCAIN PLAYS TO DEFEAT MITT ONCE AND FOR ALL IN MASSACHUSETTS

With a commanding lead in most super Tuesday states GOP front-runner John MCCain is looking for a put away punch in Mitt Romney’s home state of Massachusetts.

McCain hopes to win a big majority of the 1,023 nomination delegates that are up for grabs in the 21 states that have contests 2/5 (there are 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 state convention,
Ten of the races are winner take all) But Romney has signaled that may not push him out of the race.

The McCain campaign believes beating Romney “in the state where people know him best” would be a decisive blow that would force Romney to reconsider and ultimately withdraw.  However all the latest polls show Romney with a decisive lead in the bay state.

As FOX was first to report Wednesday, McCain plans to watch the Super Bowl and campaign in Boston!! Sunday night and Monday morning.

McCain has TV ads on the air in Massachusetts via a current national cable buy. Aides say they are going up with local radio spots tonight. In addition Former Massachusetts Governor(s) Jane Swift and Paul Cellucci both have full schedules of surrogate campaign events on behalf of McCain – they are not saying nice things about Mitt.

Finally the campaign has launched an aggressive robo telephone call blitz and expects helpful editorials from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald newspapers which have both endorsed McCain.

Romney has said repeatedly to FOX NEWS and others in recent days that he plans to continue after Super Tuesday and will assess his best path forward after the results are tabulated.

Burbank, Ca:

McCain and Rudy’s planes arrived at the same airport at the same time but they did not meet at the airport. Both left separately to head to the Ronald Reagan Library for the final debate before the super Tuesday 22-state vote. Shortly before the debate, Rudy endorsed McCain.

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted – so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

Mitt could be having a moment. In the first polls after South Carolina Romney was ahead. McCain got the Palmetto state bounce and inched ahead. Rudy tanked. Fred bailed -which helped Huckabee, who according to Mason Dixon could beat Rudy for third.

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

Rudy is in trouble. At every event some supporter will tell me about being worried that he’s fading. Seniors, vets, and transplants, in South Florida like McCain and Romney too. Crowd members repeatedly note Rudy’s absence from the news for the last month and lament that he did not compete with others elsewhere.

All politics is local but not always a winner. Hizzoner’s support for a National Catastrophic Insurance fund is very popular but Floridians aren’t rubes. The land of recount injunctions and Supreme court appeals is not likely to miss so blatant a pander.

In short:
Governor Charlie Crist pushed a measure through the legislature aimed at lowering skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane plagued Florida. Premiums may have stabilized but state taxpayers are now on the hook if the insurance companies can’t handle a future disaster. Crist now wants Washington to establish a $250 billion National Catastrophic Insurance fund that would ostensibly put taxpayers in all 50 states on the hook for Florida (and other states) should bailing out the insurance companies require catastrophic state tax hikes.

Rudy has signed on to it. Critics in Florida and elsewhere think its doomed as a big government risk guarantee for disaster insurance, funded by taxpayers in 50 states.

Giuliani has spent a lot of time around the I-4 corridor and his aides are talking up big crowds. That’s ironic since in big states like Florida crowd size is not really that relevant. Rally enthusiasm and attendance is a good yardstick in early retail states. Rudy did a bit of it in NH, but nothing compared to Mitt and McCain. The most stunning thing about Rudy’s support is that in Southern Florida (from Boca Raton to Miami Beach..affectionately known as the 6th buro of NY for all the Big Apple snowbirds and transplants) McCain leads by 10% in the Miami herald Poll.

Still Rudy is a respected and much loved hero. His staff is working triple time and they are crackerjack pro’s. Ever optimistic, doggedly loyal, disciplined message managers, they all hate to lose and are not familiar with it.

DO NOT BE shocked by a final Rudy surge before Tuesday.

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans? Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Anything can happen. The polls could be wrong. Romney could win Florida and tank February 5th. McCain could EASILY win Florida. Rudy could re-surge.

But if Romney pulls out a victory in Florida he will have arrived. His talking point will no longer be that he won Michigan and leads in delegates, it will be that for the first time there is a clear front-runner heading into February 5th, and he’s it.

Back in March of 07 at the CPAC convention in DC several former Fred Thompson Congressional staffers told me Fred Thompson was thinking about a run. Some of his Tennessee cronies had been talking him up too.

I reported first that he was eyeing a White House bid. At the time several insiders told me OFF THE RECORD that it was largely a trial ballon to guage his popularity and float his name as a possible vice presidential nominee. I was sworn to silence.

Those insiders have now lifted the conditions on our conversations. From March to August of 07 through postponed announcement days, staff changes, firings, resignations and general disarray the Thompson camp was stunned by the incredibly positive response and didn’t really know how to manage it. The trial balloon soared mighty high and he found himself being dragged into a race that he was not even sure how to run.

He took third in Iowa and Third in South Carolina, after which his aides openly suggested the #2 slot on the ticket. The circle has been closed, and Fred Dalton Thompson is waiting to see if he gets the call from the eventual nominee.

He has not said who he will endorse. He is friends with John McCain. But if he doesn’t throw his support behind anyone …it makes it easier to be picked by everyone.

In the old days there were three tickets out of Iowa, then NH cut the field to a pair and South Carolina came in to set final the trajectory.  Wait a minute. That is exactly what happened! Several lower tier candidates did drop out after Iowa and NH.  And  after coming in third in South Carolina Fred Thompson is now out and Huckabee is struggling to find states where he can afford to run with a reasonable chance of winning.

It’s funny how every 4 yrs some presidential candidates try to reinvent the wheel saying “this year is different than 4 or 8 yrs ago” try to skip the early states and then get run over by their new wheel.

Say what you will about the nations nominating process, but  it is unforgiving of candidates who think they don’t need to talk to voters early and often.

GOP campaign shakeups:

Fred Thompson sources say the actor and former Tenn senator may withdraw from the race. There are no plans to attend Thursday’s Florida debate.
Staffers have been on partial pay since the NH primary. The Senators plans are very fluid. As of 8:45 this evening, there are no plans for any announcement about whether he will stay in the race or not. The team is wrestling with very few options. The Senator is in Nashville visiting his mother (in her 90’s) who has been ill.
From THE FIRST DAY Fox News broke the story last March of his candidacy, Thompson has always had a vice presidential bid in mind. Today a top aide even mentioned the idea on Brian and the Judge on Fox News Radio.

Mike Huckabee, has also kept vice presidential options open by NOT strongly criticizing Giuliani or McCain. Huckabee is retooling his campaign to cherrypick some Super Tuesday states on Feb 5th (notably Ga and Alabama).
Huck bet the ranch on SC and coming in second did little for his weak Fla organization and almost NO organization anywhere else. Fla and Feb 5th are dauntingly expensive. Sources say Huck has money, but nowhere near what he’d like for the BIG states ahead.

Rudy Guiliani says he will continue to discuss issue differences with his rivals but will not go negative. Hizzoner’s team went into Fla a month ago prepared to spend more than $8 million dollars to win. Rudy does not have a lot of money left and he’s cratering in the polls. He may need to rethink playing nice.
A Fla defeat could effectively send Rudy from the big leagues to the Veepstakes as well.

John McCain is tapped out to. His early wins have not exactly created a firehose of cash. But what he lacks in web donations he will will try to make up for with a big fundraiser this week in NYC…right in Rudy’s backyard…where McCain now leads the polls. None of McCain’s rivals want to take the first punch (lest they suffer a backlash and lose ground too) in a multi candidate field. If he emerges the unscathed frontrunner from Thursdays
Fla debate, he will be HARD to beat.

Mitt Romney leads the estimated delegate count after 6 contests with three wins, two seconds, and a fourth. He has spent considerable time and money in Fla and is competitive (in the top 3) in every poll (even leading some.). Romney has no plans for attack ads, at this point.
Florida could be tough for Mitt, he has support but it is not firmly committed. Importantly, in this race there are no delegates for “silver or bronze”…the sunshine state is winner take all.