Barack Obama has raised 95 million dollars in the last 2 mos…McCain’s response? Get ready to accept public financing for the general and blast any democrat that doesn’t do the same as a hypocrit. Remember: Obama and McCain had the political equivalent of a handshake deal last year on this.

The MAC Camp has sent letters to thousands of donors and intends to RETURN about 3 million dollars in contributions made for the general election. The campaign is asking donors to SEND THE BUCKS BACK to McCain’s GLAC fund …a cool insider acronym for the legal and accounting expenses coffer which is actually tallied separately by the FEC.

The problem of course is that the general election matching fund, which is awarded to each candidate after their convention, is likely to be about 75-85 million dollars. The Dems convene in Denver 8/25-8/28. The GOP gather in St. Paul on 9/1. 85 million for each candidate to campaign the remaining two months to election day would seem plenty…but if you could bank twice that in advance would you disarm voluntarily?

Obama has a choice. McCain is preparing as though he does not.

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He will make his departure from the race official tonight.

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Mitt Romney is bouyant tonite as the last Michigan polls prepare to close at 9pm eastern time. He is even going back on the air in SC -briefly- with an ad. But Romney is really eyeing Nevada for his next win and will
spend at least Thursday and some of Friday there before the caucuses Saturday.

Check out Shushannah Walshe’s update.

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3 to 6 inches of snow fell around Detroit overnight.
GOP officials say light turnout so far is in keeping with forecasts of about a million votes cast today in the republican primary.
In 2000 when John McCain won, 1.3 million votes were cast- 17 percent of McCain’s votes were from indies and dems.
Light turnout and weather this time could mean fewer non-GOP votes. That could be good news for Romney.
If polls are to be believed ALL the trend lines are in Romney’s direction…albeit within the margin of error.
Romney went optimistic about Michigan manufacturing job losses saying he’ll lead the recovery. Initially McCain said those jobs are not coming back, he cast Romney as pandering. It wasn’t until a couple days ago that McCain too started cheering the recovery. If Romney wins, jobs and optimism V Realism V pessimism may be seen as the defining issues.

If Romney wins, the race in many ways, will be back to the beginning.

Thinkabout it; a Romney win evens the playing field. Huck, Mac and Mitt each have a “W” going forward.

If McCain wins we’ll have an indisputable frontrunner.
AGAIN…Mitt needs Michigan…McCain needs SC.
Tactically the best way to campaign in SC is to win MI.</

A McCain win slingshots him into SC where he has basically everything on the line.
As the most experienced ’security candidate” if McCain can’t win in SC where the military population is the nations highest per capita,,where (besides NH and AZ) might he win?
Conversely if Mitt can’t win in his home state, well, uh, what then?

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Rudy gets a Newt shout out on the Today Show. Not an endorsement but praise for cleaning up the big apple.

Rudy needs all the good press and punditry he can get. Not competing is hurting him in the polls.

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Mitt Romney scored spectacular numbers in Frank Luntz’s focus groups. (See previous post, The Forum is Over, Who Won?) He withstood withering condescension from his rivals, tough questions from Chris Wallace, all after a full campaign day. Romney has campaigned harder and for longer than all of them. Romney was seated in the middle, and he was in the middle of every exchange.

He stuck to his guns and fired several good shots of his own. He let almost no charge go un-rebutted and pivoted to offense effectively on many. As far as debating tactics, poise and execution are concerned he won.

That said, he has a heckuva job ahead. The Union leader has been pounding Romney. Huckabee’s win and attacks on Romney in Iowa left alot of bruises. Romney’s strategy always included wins in Iowa and or New Hampshire – and now he’s running 2nd to the McComeback Kid, MAC IS BACK! John McCain

Could tonight turn the corner?

McCain didn’t seem to do himself any harm. Still, it’s the second night in a row that the cutaway camera caught him looking delighted, no to say smug, during the onslaughts that befell Romney, almost too happy.

Giuliai and Thompson were non factors, which seems in sync with their chances here. None of them like Romney. In various ways they have all derided Mitt as the multi millionaire son of George Romney who flipped and flopped his way through various elections before running for Governor, then did some more flipping, before running for President.

Tonight for the most part Romney explained things rationally.

Huckabee had little to say and frankly not much to gain had he gone for it. He appears headed for third, ahead of Ron Paul and Rudy. (There are lots of 9-11 truthfolks here with Ron Paul signs)

Huckabee did fine – but the cultural and social values disconnect may be too much in NH. His crowds are big, but not breathtaking. The fact that he has curbed the Christian rhetoric is smart in NH.

This is the Live Free or Die state. There are lots of devout people from many faiths here. But this is NEW ENGLAND! One keeps it to ones’ self. These are among the smartest voters in the country. They know what Huck said in Iowa. They know he’s an ordained Southern Baptist minister He has preached here.

But evangelical baptists here are far more socially liberal than in the South. A recent Pew Research poll suggested they make up 18% of the NH GOP. Compare that to 38% in Iowa and 53% in SC!!

Romney has one more day. Polling is irrelevant. Time for lots of events and big get out the vote efforts. If the polls are right and the anecdotal tealeaves we all study are right…he may be winning more delegates and another silver medal.

My ole Pal Tom Rath (one of the most respected analyst/strategist/advisers in NH for decades) had a great line today: with delegates in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, and soon Michigan, by the time they get to SC Mitt will still have the best “body of work.”

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HuckaBOOM!
Comes the Revolution?
Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters.
That populism will now be expanded to emphasize fair trade, a tough but compassionate approach to illegal immigration reform, and the “fair tax” (replace income taxes with a 23% sales tax)
These will be among the things Huckabee will use to cast himself as the outsider against John McCain (ironic since McCain is often criticized as a maverick, but he was the chairman of the senate commerce cmte) and Mitt Romney who he has already cast as too rich to be able to connect with average folks.
McCain had an edge in NH against Romney, in a three way race including Huckabee, McCain may be even more strenghtened now.
Obama’s big win will inspire independents in NH…bad news for Rudy Giuliani who was counting on Indies for a respectable first primary showing.
Money matters.
Romney looks even worse having outspent Huckabee 10-1 in Iowa. Huckabee will enjoy a fundraising windfall now and the press will be huge, But Romney is a mult millionaire and willing to keep spending “for the long haul.”
Giuliani, McCain, Thompson all have cash problems. Not so Mitt.
Romney and Huckabee aides agree tonite was an anti washington message, and they note Obama’s change message is part of that.
Huckabee knows NH is far more secular than Iowa or South Carolina. Earlier this wk, Huckabee aides routinely said if they won they would next emphasize SC. That will shift now as they embrace the magnitude of tonites win and make a renewed effort in NH…
As one aide put it “this is a big wave, we can surf anywhere now.” That may be overconfident but with two debates this weekend and a record of strong debate performances, Huckabee knows a moment is at hand.

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Paraleipsis…..look it up:)

FOX News was the first to obtain a copy of the whole ad:

Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be talking about this story right up until they vote. They are sophisticated and saturated by election news and devour this type of oddity like a prime rib at Des Moines’ Iowa Beef Steakhouse. Say what you will, but know this strange move WILL get attention.

The back story:

On Saturday afternoon Huckabee cleared most of his Sunday schedule and aides refused to explain. It was a mysterious, suspicious move but aides refused to confirm it was to cut new ads. Early Sunday morning after one live shot pointing out that taking the last Sunday off before caucus without explanation would irk Iowa caucus goers, Huckabee aides immediately copped to a day in the studio for new ads.

They were to be tough “rebuttal ads.” The final DVD’s were printed for shipment to Iowa TV stations at 1:00am Monday morning. There was dissent in Huckworld. Some wanted to attack. Others didn’t.

What many Hucksters envisioned was an ad denouncing Romney’s attacks but rather than returning in kind, pledging more positivity. What came out was a straight up hit on Romney, and many instantly thought it was too much, mean. Like Romney.

To be fair some of Huckabee’s attacks have been far more personal than Mitts of late. Huck admits he was in to negativity himself on the stump recently.

Family members reminded Huck he had never run an ad like that in Arkansas. Iowa aides warned it would turn people off. Huck made the call. BUT a deal was struck with those favoring the attack: run it in the news conference – proving it’s existence, and delivering the message.

Monday morning I was triple tipped. First: it was back off the negative counter attack reporting, its not happening. Then I was re-tipped: Romney’s gonna be stunned, its tough. Then re-re-tipped: some people think its a bad idea.

An hour later the governor told a packed news conference he was halting the ad, but would play it for us. Reporters burst into unapologetic guffaws of laughter – skepticism code: day-glow red blinking neon! The idea that at this late date, having called Romney dishonest, disingenuous, ruthless, and various other goodies, he would suddenly swear off negative campaigning was too much for most.

Then the debut of the ad went haywire. They hit play, video rolled with no sound – it was recording in the cameras but there was silence in the room for reporters, abort.

Restart: audio in the room but not to the cameras, rewind. The third do over had no audio to the room or the cameras…The tiny speakers on the laptop played for those of us within a few feet. NOBODY RECORDED A USEABLE VERSION OF THE AD AT THE NEWS CONFERENCE.

Huck said they were not distributing it but told reporters repeatedly it had been sent to TV stations around Iowa to run at noon.

So now Huck is embarrassed (IS HE?) that the ad he never wanted you to see (and said would only be shown in that news conference room) is all over the place. (see the front page of Foxnews.com.)

Some will say they planned it this way: to look like he’s taking the high road by pulling the spot, while getting more news coverage for the attack message than he could ever afford to buy.
But they also knew it would look bad to reverse course…indecisive-disarray? Unpredictable under pressure?

If he loses this will be one of many causes. If he wins this will be a defining moment written about for years. With the exception of the revered Des Moines Register poll Huck was trending down and Mitt trending up for several days.

The campaign knew they had to do something dramatic to stop the slide and change the dynamics. They knew it had to be good to break through on New Years eve. Winning campaigns always take risks and always need luck. They rolled the dice.

This was certainly different and if Huckabee pulls out the caucus win, his aides all say this will be a big part of the reason why. Huckaboom? Huckabust? Less than a hundred hours to find out.

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It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

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