IF THE REPUBLICANS COULDN’T DISCUSS ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND IRAQ…WILL THE DEMS BE DENIED THE CHANCE TO TALK ABOUT JUDGMENT, EXPERIENCE AND CREDIBILITY???

For the first time in the 2008 presidential primary, yesterday, GOP presidential contender, Alan Keyes was on the stage with all the other GOP candidates. But today, at the democratic debate, there will be two fewer at the podiums. Mike Gravel and Dennis Kuchinich are not allowed to participate! What gives?

1. Candidates must have filed an FEC Form F-2 Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, and

2. Candidates must have publicly announced an intention to run for the nomination of the Republican or the Democratic Party for President of the United States, and

3. Candidates must have had a campaign office inside the State of Iowa as of October 1, 2007, and

4. Candidates must have employed at least one paid campaign staff representative to perform full-time campaign duties in the State of Iowa on behalf of the candidate since at least October 1, 2007, and

5. Candidates must have had at least a 1% support showing in the Des Moines Register October, 2007 Iowa Poll.

A Des Moines Register insider says Alan Keyes told them before the Oct 1st qualification deadline he had a staffer and office.

The Iowa republican party which tracks candidate organization meticulously says it has no record of Keyes having had any campaign headquarters or staff at all this year.

The Keye’s web page says his campaign headquarters is in Utah. There is no contact info for anyone in any other state.

The phone number goes to an answering machine and provides no other information

As for choice of moderator Register officials say it is a long tradition that the papers’ managing editor do the job.

He’s railing against “elites”… accusing the moderator of a conspiracy to keep him silent… and pitching his website from the podium

As Campaign Carl predicted, Alan Keyes was in fine form at this afternoon’s debate. The energy! The eloquence! The anti-establishment rants!

You don’t always know what he’s talking about, but he says it with such vigor and absolute conviction that he at least gets credit for keeping the discussion lively, and the other candidates on their toes.

Alan Keyes has spent most of the debate insulting his Republican rivals lumping them all together. He went after them again during a question about global warming. Thompson interrupted saying answer the question about global warming. Keyes says we need to get rid of the hot air in Washington! More laughter from the press room!

Alan Keyes, who scored 3rd in the 2000 Iowa caucuses and famously crowd surfed a rally mosh pit in a knee length leather coat back then, appears in the Des Moines Register debate.
He filed his candidacy with the FEC in early September and appeared at the Tavis Smiley debate in Baltimore.
Keyes has otherwise been a non factor/entity in the race.
But this is a big spotlight today and anyone who has ever heard him speak knows he can dominate a stage. Keyes is today’s wildcard..watch outfor surprises.

Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29