It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29

A new Iowa survey from Strategic Vision, a Republican polling outfit, seems to confirm the recent pro-Obama trend in the state. The Illinois Senator leads the Democratic pack with 32%, followed by chief rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards at 25%. But as with all recent polls here, the numbers are within the margin of error.

Should Hillary be worried? The campaign can’t be happy with the trend lines in the horse race — especially since momentum always plays such a key role in Iowa. They also can’t be happy with the fact that she’s dropping among women, and that voters seem to care less about experience than change. But staffers constantly point out that polls don’t matter here. While that’s partially spin, since aides won’t hesitate to point out a poll that looks good for their candidate, there’s a lot of truth to the assertion.

I asked Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman, who runs the Fox News / Opinion Dynamics polls, why it’s so difficult to get a read on the Hawkeye state. “Polling in Iowa is very difficult and of very uncertain quality,” he wrote back. “This results from the following factors:

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Des Moines-

Moderator Michelle Norris asked John Edwards that as a father of 2 small children if he would
be buying toys made in China over Christmas.

“No ma’mm”,Edwards responded. Norris said it must be hard with over 70 percent of toys being made in China.

Chris Dodd, also a father, piped in during the exchange, ” I’m only buying toys made in Iowa.”

Senator Clinton devoted much of a speech here in Ankeny, IA, to blasting her chief rival Barack Obama for failing to cover every American under his health care plan. In her harshest criticism yet, Clinton said Obama was betraying Democratic principles by leaving 15 million uncovered, adding “just because it’s controversial or ambitious, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. The time is now.”

“If we don’t move toward universal health care coverage now, if we don’t have an election about it where I stand against whoever the Republicans nominate and let them answer the questions about why they won’t take care of covering every single American, why they want to still be in bed with the health insurance companies, that is an election we will win,” she said. “

But we’ve got to put up a candidate that’s willing to stand for it and fight for it

.”

Responding to Hillary’s attacks, Obama spokesman Bill Burton released a statement saying, “Another day, another desperate attack.”

“Demonizing anyone who doesn’t share her exact plans on health care is exactly why Hillary Clinton flunked the opportunity she had to pass universal health care in 1993. The truth is, Barack Obama’s universal health care plan makes coverage affordable for every single American, he just doesn’t agree with Hillary’s plan to start by forcing everyone to buy insurance they can’t afford,” he said.

What follows is a “greatest hits” compilation from the event, including her comparison of the fight for universal health care to FDR and LBJ’s battles for Social Security and Medicare — in which she plays the role of the strong, principled president, and Obama is (by implication) not up to the same level. The entire Obama-related portion of her speech is after the jump.

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…Giuliani, as we noted, was kind of soft on Romney on his crime record…but his campaign is not in their latest email….

the email:

MITT ROMNEY IS SOFT ON CRIME

VIOLENT CRIMES LIKE MURDER AND ROBBERY WENT UP UNDER ROMNEY

Crime Increased During Romney’s Tenure In Office. “New FBI statistics show that murders and other violent crimes rose in Massachusetts under former Gov. Mitt Romney, while plummeting in many parts of the country, a fact that could haunt the ex-governor on the presidential trail.” (Dave Wedge, “Crime Up During Romney Tenure,” Boston Herald, 9/26/07)

* “The Numbers Paint A Murky Picture Of Romney’s Record On Crime, Which May Explain Why He Rarely Broaches The Subject On The Stump, More Often Opting To Speak About Terrorism, Immigration, Health Care, Taxes, Gay Marriage, Gun Ownership And Abortion.” (Dave Wedge, “Crime Up During Romney Tenure,” Boston Herald, 9/26/07)

“The Newly Released Figures Show That Murders Were Up 7.5 Percent In The Bay State And 25 Percent In Boston From 2002 To 2006 While Romney Was Governor.” (Dave Wedge, “Crime Up During Romney Tenure,” Boston Herald, 9/26/07)
“From 2005 To 2006 – Most Of Which Romney Spent Out-Of-State Campaigning – Murders Were Up 4.5 Percent In Massachusetts, Outpacing The National Increase Of 1.8 Percent.” (Dave Wedge, “Crime Up During Romney Tenure,” Boston Herald, 9/26/07)

Robberies Went Up Over 12% During Romney’s Term. (FBI Uniform Crime Report, www.fbi.gov, Accessed 11/14/07)

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