It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

IF THE REPUBLICANS COULDN’T DISCUSS ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND IRAQ…WILL THE DEMS BE DENIED THE CHANCE TO TALK ABOUT JUDGMENT, EXPERIENCE AND CREDIBILITY???

For the first time in the 2008 presidential primary, yesterday, GOP presidential contender, Alan Keyes was on the stage with all the other GOP candidates. But today, at the democratic debate, there will be two fewer at the podiums. Mike Gravel and Dennis Kuchinich are not allowed to participate! What gives?

1. Candidates must have filed an FEC Form F-2 Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, and

2. Candidates must have publicly announced an intention to run for the nomination of the Republican or the Democratic Party for President of the United States, and

3. Candidates must have had a campaign office inside the State of Iowa as of October 1, 2007, and

4. Candidates must have employed at least one paid campaign staff representative to perform full-time campaign duties in the State of Iowa on behalf of the candidate since at least October 1, 2007, and

5. Candidates must have had at least a 1% support showing in the Des Moines Register October, 2007 Iowa Poll.

A Des Moines Register insider says Alan Keyes told them before the Oct 1st qualification deadline he had a staffer and office.

The Iowa republican party which tracks candidate organization meticulously says it has no record of Keyes having had any campaign headquarters or staff at all this year.

The Keye’s web page says his campaign headquarters is in Utah. There is no contact info for anyone in any other state.

The phone number goes to an answering machine and provides no other information

As for choice of moderator Register officials say it is a long tradition that the papers’ managing editor do the job.

Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29

Des Moines-

Many of the presidential aspirants during tonight’s Brown and Black Forum, had unique and at times colorful questions when their turn came up, as part of tonight’s rules, to ask a question to one or all Democrats on the stage.  At times they were quite humorous, like Dennis Kucinich asking himself a question. However, one of the best moments for any of the 3 chief Democratic contenders tonight was when John Edwards, complimented Senator Obama on his campaign, then cemented a promise from him to push for a minimum wage of at least 9 dollars, if he becomes president. Obama has repeatedly said that he would get minimum wage to increase incrementally per each year, during an Obama administration, but has not ever given a cemented number like he did tonight. ” The answer is yes,” Obama replied to Edwards question.

Tonight’s Brown and Black Presidential Forum is being broadcast in high definition by the relatively young HDNet… and it looks like they’re still working out the kinks. First, voices from the control room came over the loudspeaker when Barack Obama was talking — and were finally cut off only after one of those disembodied voices said “oh, no.”

Someone brought Obama a handheld microphone to give his answer.  But just after that techno-fiasco, the audio for moderator Michelle Norris cut out in the hall. She had to repeat a question.

But the highlight, or lowlight, was when moderator Ray Suarez asked Governor Bill Richardson a question, and his microphone went out as well. Skipping ahead, Suarez went straight to Dennis Kucinich — whose microphone ALSO didn’t work.

Finally, Barack Obama stood up and handed his stick mic to Kucinich, to much applause. Kucinich responded, “Barack I want to thank you for passing the baton in this race.”

So far, there have been more audio drop-outs than there have been answers.

Senator Clinton devoted much of a speech here in Ankeny, IA, to blasting her chief rival Barack Obama for failing to cover every American under his health care plan. In her harshest criticism yet, Clinton said Obama was betraying Democratic principles by leaving 15 million uncovered, adding “just because it’s controversial or ambitious, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. The time is now.”

“If we don’t move toward universal health care coverage now, if we don’t have an election about it where I stand against whoever the Republicans nominate and let them answer the questions about why they won’t take care of covering every single American, why they want to still be in bed with the health insurance companies, that is an election we will win,” she said. “

But we’ve got to put up a candidate that’s willing to stand for it and fight for it

.”

Responding to Hillary’s attacks, Obama spokesman Bill Burton released a statement saying, “Another day, another desperate attack.”

“Demonizing anyone who doesn’t share her exact plans on health care is exactly why Hillary Clinton flunked the opportunity she had to pass universal health care in 1993. The truth is, Barack Obama’s universal health care plan makes coverage affordable for every single American, he just doesn’t agree with Hillary’s plan to start by forcing everyone to buy insurance they can’t afford,” he said.

What follows is a “greatest hits” compilation from the event, including her comparison of the fight for universal health care to FDR and LBJ’s battles for Social Security and Medicare — in which she plays the role of the strong, principled president, and Obama is (by implication) not up to the same level. The entire Obama-related portion of her speech is after the jump.

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