It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

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IF THE REPUBLICANS COULDN’T DISCUSS ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND IRAQ…WILL THE DEMS BE DENIED THE CHANCE TO TALK ABOUT JUDGMENT, EXPERIENCE AND CREDIBILITY???

For the first time in the 2008 presidential primary, yesterday, GOP presidential contender, Alan Keyes was on the stage with all the other GOP candidates. But today, at the democratic debate, there will be two fewer at the podiums. Mike Gravel and Dennis Kuchinich are not allowed to participate! What gives?

1. Candidates must have filed an FEC Form F-2 Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, and

2. Candidates must have publicly announced an intention to run for the nomination of the Republican or the Democratic Party for President of the United States, and

3. Candidates must have had a campaign office inside the State of Iowa as of October 1, 2007, and

4. Candidates must have employed at least one paid campaign staff representative to perform full-time campaign duties in the State of Iowa on behalf of the candidate since at least October 1, 2007, and

5. Candidates must have had at least a 1% support showing in the Des Moines Register October, 2007 Iowa Poll.

A Des Moines Register insider says Alan Keyes told them before the Oct 1st qualification deadline he had a staffer and office.

The Iowa republican party which tracks candidate organization meticulously says it has no record of Keyes having had any campaign headquarters or staff at all this year.

The Keye’s web page says his campaign headquarters is in Utah. There is no contact info for anyone in any other state.

The phone number goes to an answering machine and provides no other information

As for choice of moderator Register officials say it is a long tradition that the papers’ managing editor do the job.

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Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29

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Des Moines-

Many of the presidential aspirants during tonight’s Brown and Black Forum, had unique and at times colorful questions when their turn came up, as part of tonight’s rules, to ask a question to one or all Democrats on the stage.  At times they were quite humorous, like Dennis Kucinich asking himself a question. However, one of the best moments for any of the 3 chief Democratic contenders tonight was when John Edwards, complimented Senator Obama on his campaign, then cemented a promise from him to push for a minimum wage of at least 9 dollars, if he becomes president. Obama has repeatedly said that he would get minimum wage to increase incrementally per each year, during an Obama administration, but has not ever given a cemented number like he did tonight. ” The answer is yes,” Obama replied to Edwards question.

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Tonight’s Brown and Black Presidential Forum is being broadcast in high definition by the relatively young HDNet… and it looks like they’re still working out the kinks. First, voices from the control room came over the loudspeaker when Barack Obama was talking — and were finally cut off only after one of those disembodied voices said “oh, no.”

Someone brought Obama a handheld microphone to give his answer.  But just after that techno-fiasco, the audio for moderator Michelle Norris cut out in the hall. She had to repeat a question.

But the highlight, or lowlight, was when moderator Ray Suarez asked Governor Bill Richardson a question, and his microphone went out as well. Skipping ahead, Suarez went straight to Dennis Kucinich — whose microphone ALSO didn’t work.

Finally, Barack Obama stood up and handed his stick mic to Kucinich, to much applause. Kucinich responded, “Barack I want to thank you for passing the baton in this race.”

So far, there have been more audio drop-outs than there have been answers.

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Senator Clinton devoted much of a speech here in Ankeny, IA, to blasting her chief rival Barack Obama for failing to cover every American under his health care plan. In her harshest criticism yet, Clinton said Obama was betraying Democratic principles by leaving 15 million uncovered, adding “just because it’s controversial or ambitious, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. The time is now.”

“If we don’t move toward universal health care coverage now, if we don’t have an election about it where I stand against whoever the Republicans nominate and let them answer the questions about why they won’t take care of covering every single American, why they want to still be in bed with the health insurance companies, that is an election we will win,” she said. “

But we’ve got to put up a candidate that’s willing to stand for it and fight for it

.”

Responding to Hillary’s attacks, Obama spokesman Bill Burton released a statement saying, “Another day, another desperate attack.”

“Demonizing anyone who doesn’t share her exact plans on health care is exactly why Hillary Clinton flunked the opportunity she had to pass universal health care in 1993. The truth is, Barack Obama’s universal health care plan makes coverage affordable for every single American, he just doesn’t agree with Hillary’s plan to start by forcing everyone to buy insurance they can’t afford,” he said.

What follows is a “greatest hits” compilation from the event, including her comparison of the fight for universal health care to FDR and LBJ’s battles for Social Security and Medicare — in which she plays the role of the strong, principled president, and Obama is (by implication) not up to the same level. The entire Obama-related portion of her speech is after the jump.

“More than anybody else in this race, I have a plan to reduce the cost of health care by $120 billion a year. And I think its important that we understand the differences among us who have plans.

You know, among the Democrats, all of us except Senator Obama have universal health care, they have put forth a plan. Senator (sic) Richardson, Senator Edwards, Senator Dodd. We’ve put forth universal health care plans, because we know if we don’t cover everybody, we’re going to leave millions and millions of people out. Its a substantive and important difference. Because if you don’t start with the goal of covering every American, you will never get there.

Here’s how my plan works: if you already have private insurance and you’re happy with it, nothing changes. You keep that insurance. But if you don’t have health insurance or you don’t like he insurance you have, you can choose from a wide variety of options that are available to members of congress.

All Americans will have a responsibility to get and keep health insurance. I believe if we make this the law of the land, Americans will follow it and will purchase health insurance far more than if we don’t have that requirement.

We’ll provide tax credits to ensure that people can afford it, and we’ll give tax credits to small businesses so that they can cover more of their employees. If you want to cover everybody you have to make health care a shared responsibility.

I know you need to have the willingness to stand up to the insurance companies and the drug companies and demand universal coverage.

And that’s why I don’t understand why we have this difference on the Democratic side, because if anything, democrats should stand for universal health care. That distinguishes us from the Republicans. The Republicans don’t believe in it. Democrats do. And we’ll fight for it.

It will be a president with the experience and strength to make that happen, otherwise we’ll be right back here in another ten or twelve or fourteen years, and we’ll still have tens of millions of people uninsured and in fact our problems will be even worse and we will have lost more jobs because employers won’t be willing to provide insurance. They’ll move jobs off shore because they don’t want to have those benefits. And we will not be either competitive or living up to our ideals.

It is impossible to get to universal health care if you don’t have a mandate. That is a key difference between my plan and Senator Obama’s plan.

Now when Senator Obama was a state senator in Illinois, he helped to create a health care task force that looked into how best to cover everybody in Illinois with health insurance.

 They released their report earlier this year – and they made it very clear, if you want to cover everyone you need to require people to get health insurance. Otherwise you will fail to cover 60-90% of the uninsured.

Now, there are a number of ways of doing this. one sensible step would be to use what’s called default enrollment. If you don’t make a choice, well we set up a system where people are automatically enrolled when they come into contact with the health care system or with schools or colleges. We could also work with employers so they automatically enroll people. The Congress has ideas about this, it will work to make sure that these mandates are enforceable.

But what’s strange is that Senator Obama’s plan actually does have a mandate, but only for children. No requirement for adults. Now I’ve worked on this issue a very long time.

 And if you believe you can enforce a mandate on children, that means you enforce the mandate on the parents of the children to enroll the children?

Why would you leave out the parents of the children? 

Because what happens when you leave out the parents is that they’re less likely to get health care for their own children. See, this is all connected.

And I’m proud that Senator Edwards agrees with me, Senator Dodd agrees with me, Governor Richardson agrees with me. Congressman Kucinich has a different approach, but he gets everyone covered to have universal health care.

If we don’t have universal health care, then we will be betraying the Democratic party’s principles. And it’s important that those who will caucus on January 3rd understand this difference. Senator Obama’s plan does not and cannot cover all Americans.

He’s called his plan universal, then he called it virtually universal, but it is not either. When it comes to truth in labeling, it simply flunks the test.

He’s been saying there’s no difference between our plans, but his plan would Leave at least 15 million Americans uninsured, including more than 100,000 people right here in Iowa.

So why don’t we just say everybody against the wall, you don’t get insurance. We’re very sorry, but we’re just not going to have a plan that covers you. Who’s going to choose who doesn’t get covered? Who’s going to leave out 15 million people, or 100,000 people in Iowa? That’s more than half the population of Des Moines. That’s a huge difference for those who get left out, like the daughter of the woman I met from Greenville.

And its a huge difference to me, to leave 15 million people virtually invisible, because that is what we would do.

 Well when I’m president, there will be no invisible Americans, and there will be no Americans without health care. That is one of my highest priorities.

And I know its going to be a tough fight. But I have been fighting the republicans and the special interests for 15 years.

I have to admit I get amused when any of my opponents try to claim they’ve fought more fights than I’ve fought. Well I don’t remember them being with me in 1993 and 1994, to tell you the truth.

So I don’t mind standing up and fighting. That’s what I want to do for all of you.

And I know that you are not going to get the health insurance companies to say, oh ok, we’re going to cover everybody, and therefore its going to be hard for us to make money because we’ll to have to do it the old fashioned way.

 Instead of eliminating people from coverage and refusing to pay doctors bills and hospital bills, we’re just going to eliminate you in the first instance, or deny coverage for you and refuse to pay your bills. I know they’re not going to like my plan. That’s not the point.

Just because it’s controversial or ambitious, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. The time is now. If we don’t move toward universal health care coverage now, if we don’t have an election about it where I stand against whoever the Republicans nominate and let them answer the questions about why they won’t take care of covering every single American, why they want to still be in bed with the health insurance companies, that is an election we will win. 

But we’ve got to put up a candidate that’s willing to stand for it and fight for it

.

Imagine if President Roosevelt had said, ‘well, lets have Social Security, but lets start by leaving out millions of our seniors.’ Or suppose President Johnson, fighting the fights over Medicare

, said, ‘you know, lets just cover some of our seniors with Medicare. Eventually the others will catch up.’ That is not the way it works.

They knew what it took to make big, important changes in our country. They also knew that if you aim too low, if you give up before the fight has started, then you have no chance of making it to the finish line. And I intend to not only make it to the finish line, but to be there with all of you. Because we’re going to do this together.

Those that don’t have insurance, they don’t just struggle with costs themselves, they impose costs on everyone else. When you leave 15 million Americans uninsured, the result is a hidden tax on every other American. What do I mean by that? Well when someone is finally forced to go to the emergency room because they can’t afford a doctor’s appointment, we all pay the bill. When they can’t pay their medical bills, insurance companies just raise the rates on everybody else.

And when you leave 15 million uninsured, insurance companies will just continue to cherry pick the healthiest people and discriminate against the sickest. Those that need the coverage the most.

We’re going to eliminate health care discrimination. Were going to require insurance companies to insure everyone, including preexisting conditions. You will not any longer be denied insurance, you will be entitled to insurance. And as long as you pay your share of the costs, no one can take it away from you

And that will also be a cardinal principle when it comes to how we’re going to make it absolutely clear to people that having insurance is a shared responsibility. Everybody’s got to pitch in. No more hidden taxes. No more insurance company cherry picking.

I know we can do this, and even the Republicans, at least some of them, do. That’s why Governor Schwarzenegger has a mandate

 in his proposal. No one who looks seriously about how we get to universal health care can come to any other conclusion

.

So this is a fight worth taking on. I’ve never shied away from tough challenges., and neither has America. You know, we’re the nation that split the atom, that sent a man to the moon, that mapped the human genome. We’ve got the best doctors and nurses and health care professionals in the world. We’ve got the most exciting research, the most promising treatment and cures. And it’s long past time

 that all of our people benefited from that.”

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