TEN DAYS IS A LONG TIME.

In fact there have not been ten uninterrupted campaign days in this entire campaign. The ten days before Iowa included Christmas and New Years.

Since August John McCain has been the come-from-behind-underdog. For the first time in the race he is going to get the full front-runner treatment: intense scrutiny and relentless criticism from his rivals.

Huckabee’s gracious praise for McCain in tonight’s concession speech smacked of a short list audition. He promised to remain in the nominating “process” for a long time, and said he still believes it will end “in the White House.” But there were moments when he spoke about his campaign in the past tense, and he didn’t say in what capacity he believed he would end up in Casa Blanca.

Will Rudy Giuliani call it a two man race with himself and McCain? Will voters buy it? Rudy seldom deigned to discuss his rival’s positions on issues over the last year, but is already tweaking McCain for opposing the Bush tax cuts. If Hizzoner wants to be President, he has to beat McCain now. Both make security central to their candidacies. Each has detractors in the party and exploitable liabilities. It could get ugly. If his rivals pull their punches, it’s fair to wonder if they are shooting for short list, or have decided “it’s McCain’s turn.”

Rough night for Fred Thompson. In recent days he gave some raucous speeches. One has to wonder if he had started in July last year whether he might have been giving those speeches in August and won the Ames Straw-poll, then who knows what might have been. The possibility of a Vice Presidential bid was always part of his calculus last year. That’s a whole other story, and the option may not still be intact. Fred has signaled that he’s not really sure what he will do. He could try to cherry pick a few 2/5 super Tuesday states – aides can rattle em off. But those same aides would not be shocked if Fred pulled the plug at anytime, then at some helpful point down the road, would endorse McCain.

Mitt Romney remains very much in it. He leads in delegates and if the race becomes a protracted battle has money others don’t.

McCain focused much of his South Carolina campaign on character and values and integrity. It not only helped him with evangelical voters against Huckabee in South Carolina it revealed a new message for Florida against Rudy.

Get ready to hear alot about the I-4 corridor and the pan handle. The Versailles Restaurant in Little Havana is gonna be on TV alot in the next ten days. Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola, here they come!

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He will make his departure from the race official tonight.

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Mitt Romney is bouyant tonite as the last Michigan polls prepare to close at 9pm eastern time. He is even going back on the air in SC -briefly- with an ad. But Romney is really eyeing Nevada for his next win and will
spend at least Thursday and some of Friday there before the caucuses Saturday.

Check out Shushannah Walshe’s update.

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3 to 6 inches of snow fell around Detroit overnight.
GOP officials say light turnout so far is in keeping with forecasts of about a million votes cast today in the republican primary.
In 2000 when John McCain won, 1.3 million votes were cast- 17 percent of McCain’s votes were from indies and dems.
Light turnout and weather this time could mean fewer non-GOP votes. That could be good news for Romney.
If polls are to be believed ALL the trend lines are in Romney’s direction…albeit within the margin of error.
Romney went optimistic about Michigan manufacturing job losses saying he’ll lead the recovery. Initially McCain said those jobs are not coming back, he cast Romney as pandering. It wasn’t until a couple days ago that McCain too started cheering the recovery. If Romney wins, jobs and optimism V Realism V pessimism may be seen as the defining issues.

If Romney wins, the race in many ways, will be back to the beginning.

Thinkabout it; a Romney win evens the playing field. Huck, Mac and Mitt each have a “W” going forward.

If McCain wins we’ll have an indisputable frontrunner.
AGAIN…Mitt needs Michigan…McCain needs SC.
Tactically the best way to campaign in SC is to win MI.</

A McCain win slingshots him into SC where he has basically everything on the line.
As the most experienced ’security candidate” if McCain can’t win in SC where the military population is the nations highest per capita,,where (besides NH and AZ) might he win?
Conversely if Mitt can’t win in his home state, well, uh, what then?

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Rudy gets a Newt shout out on the Today Show. Not an endorsement but praise for cleaning up the big apple.

Rudy needs all the good press and punditry he can get. Not competing is hurting him in the polls.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Since 2000 some in NH have continued to call John McCain “President of New Hampshire.”

As FNC Chief White House correspondent in the Spring of 2006 I saw Senior McCainiacs visit the White House more than once – and they didn’t like me knowing they were there. Before I gave up the WH gig to return to the trail for this very race, Senior White House officials often uttered the words:

“It’s McCain’s turn.”

Of course he hired several top Bushies, rehired his 2000 team, added a few new folks and ran up huge bills. His organization was so sprawling it collapsed under its own weight – then imploded. He was written off. Wholesale firings and resignations before August were designed to get him back on track after Labor Day. The Petraeus report came out. So did Fred Thompson, occasionally. Huckabee went largely unnoticed in NH. So, when Thompson fizzled everywhere but South Carolina, NH became a 2 man race: Mitt v McCain.

Thompson’s absence in Iowa, and becuz McCain basically skipped it, turned Iowa into a Mitt v Huckabee battle. It is a cardinal rule in first-in-the-nation politics, NEVER be in first place in the final two months, attacks in the last month can ruin you. Mitt was further hampered by the need to battle on two fronts. McCain got a pass in Iowa’s expectations game. Huck gets a pass in NH. Mitt went to war in both places at once.

With most establishment republicans skeptical of Huckabee’s chances beyond South Carolina, many are now wrestling with the possibility that perhaps it is “McCain’s Turn.”

It is no secret that McCain has enemies. Decades of breaking with his party on a myriad of issues has costs. In 2000 his senate colleagues conducted a whisper campaign that described him as an unstable vindictive, egomaniac. And yet after losing, he backed President Bush on the war, and for re-election, and in 2006, and found compromises; notably The Gang of 14 deal that got the Presidents Supreme court justices approved.

McCain can go on and compete in Michigan -a state he carried in 2000. Then he can head to South Carolina where active and retired military are the highest per capita nationwide. We’ve been to countless VFW events and halls with McCain in SC.

Huck will be very tough in South Carolina, and Thompson is betting it all there. Southern Baptists make up 53% of the GOP according to Pew research…McCain’s got a confederate flag problem in the Palmetto state too, it could be tough.

But there will be more debates, more attack ads, new tests of their Presidential timber:

And the idea that the MAC IS BACK has alot of republicans and conservatives wondering if they are going to have to come to grips with it, all over again.

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HuckaBOOM!
Comes the Revolution?
Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters.
That populism will now be expanded to emphasize fair trade, a tough but compassionate approach to illegal immigration reform, and the “fair tax” (replace income taxes with a 23% sales tax)
These will be among the things Huckabee will use to cast himself as the outsider against John McCain (ironic since McCain is often criticized as a maverick, but he was the chairman of the senate commerce cmte) and Mitt Romney who he has already cast as too rich to be able to connect with average folks.
McCain had an edge in NH against Romney, in a three way race including Huckabee, McCain may be even more strenghtened now.
Obama’s big win will inspire independents in NH…bad news for Rudy Giuliani who was counting on Indies for a respectable first primary showing.
Money matters.
Romney looks even worse having outspent Huckabee 10-1 in Iowa. Huckabee will enjoy a fundraising windfall now and the press will be huge, But Romney is a mult millionaire and willing to keep spending “for the long haul.”
Giuliani, McCain, Thompson all have cash problems. Not so Mitt.
Romney and Huckabee aides agree tonite was an anti washington message, and they note Obama’s change message is part of that.
Huckabee knows NH is far more secular than Iowa or South Carolina. Earlier this wk, Huckabee aides routinely said if they won they would next emphasize SC. That will shift now as they embrace the magnitude of tonites win and make a renewed effort in NH…
As one aide put it “this is a big wave, we can surf anywhere now.” That may be overconfident but with two debates this weekend and a record of strong debate performances, Huckabee knows a moment is at hand.

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It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

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Duncan Hunter was so intently listening to Romney’s answer on conservatism that he forgot the question being asked. The question was what is more important right now being a social conservative or being a fiscal conservative. Romney evaded the question and said it was just important to be a conservative. Hunter forgot the question, but added that he thought Romney’s response was a good answer!

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