Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29

After criticism that videos of talking snowman dumbed down the first YOUTUBE debate for democrats, republicans now get their turn. Wednesday’s GOP youtube debate in Fla is likly to focus on MIKE HUCKABEE. The frmr Ark Gov is NOW 2ND IN THE SUNSHINE STATE!

In recent weeks the darkhorse Huckabee has also surged into a first place tie with Mitt Romney in the lead off caucus state of Ia. IN FLORIDA Huckabee is also gaining steam according to Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research poll taken 11/25&26 among 675 likely voters w/ MOE +/- 3.5%

Rudy Giuliani (26%)
Mike Huckabee (17%)
John McCain (13%)
Mitt Romney (12%)
Fred Thompson (9%)

The GOP nomination is up for grabs, no question.

Giuliani’s national frontrunner status is at risk if he loses too many early states.  His campaign considers Fla a must win. When it comes to being the conservative “anti-rudy” his rivals can each say they have a shot at winning one of the lead off early races.

-Huck is moving in Ia & Fl.
-Mitt still leads in Ia&NH & has $!

-Fred’s up in SC-1st test in south
-McCain’s strong in NH

All that makes Fla MORE important to Rudy. He is counting on the states diversity and large number of NY transplants to make the sunshine state his firewall. Florida votes January 29th. After Ia, NH, SC, NV and MI, but before the huge Feb 5th Super Tuesday primaries.

With 37 days to the first votes the GOP backbiting now resembles 3 dimensional chess, with 5 players… And it HAS turned personal. The candidates use immigration, crime, taxes and spending, and social issues to attack one anothers’ honesty, judgement, experience, truthfulness, principle and trustworthiness.

Each candidate is simultaneously involved in skirmishes with 3 or 4 rivals at a time. While Huckabee’s likely to take heat from several rivals Wednesday, Rudy remains a target as the national frontrunner and Romney is in everyone’s sites as the leader in Ia and NH.

David Borman says CNN received 5,000 You Tube entries. They are culling it to 70 or so you tube questions. All of the candidates supplied their own 30 sec video, each of which will be played during the debate as pacers. Asked if there will be questions from hotdog or a lego person a smiling Borman hedged: “We’re not ruling out questions that are from non-humans.”

He went on to say there will be a few “good songs”, some good production, and then strongly emphasized there are “some VERY HARD questions” on issues of importance to the GOP nomination. Another well placed CNN insider says Anderson Cooper wants to see lots of videos and does not plan to pretend he is an expert. They hope to “carve an editorial path thru the questions” without using a timer or warning lights. Anderson Cooper will handle it and the candidates will be on an “honor system.”

One other Florida point: It is IMPORTANT too that Florida is the only major winner-take-all state before Super Tuesday 2/5. Fla has 113 GOP nomination delegates…the first really big delegate prize toward the nomination. But only half of Fla’s delegates are currently expected to be awarded at the RNC convention. The national GOP plans to dock several states half their delegates for jumping ahead on the calendar. Other states currently at risk of being docked 50% of their delegates: Ia 40, NH 24, SC 46, NV 32, Mi 61. But all of those early states’ delegates are also awarded proportionately. Fla is the first winner-take-all state, so it holds more delegates for its’ winner than IA, NH and SC combined (after thier delegates are apportioned.)

In the end all the early states are expected to have all of their delegates seated. Technically the rules say they are out of compliance and should be penalized, but generally such spats are resolved before the roll call. Democrats are in a similar situation but (unlike republicans who refuse to let their party prevent them from talking to voters) several democratic candidates have signed pledges to NOT campaign in states that are frontloading in violation of DNC rules.

Florida (home of the 2000 recount in which democrats chanted “count every vote”) is essentially being boycotted by democratic candidates because the national party wants to be able to dictate to the state when it may hold its’ primary.