It’s primary night in Kentucky and Oregon, Major reports on the expected outcome.  Carl is in Florida where McCain continued to charge the Democratic frontrunner is weak on foreign policy.

from www.hulu.com posted with vodpod

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Major Garrett reports on the Democratic race on the day of the W.Va primary, Carl is in North Bend, Wa and follows McCain’s second day of the  “global climate change” tour.

from www.hulu.com posted with vodpod

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Very quietly and very delicately the Obama and Clinton campaigns have begun back channel communications to find a common ground that can break the stalemate over Florida and Michigan.

Discussions are in very early stages with more expected over the weekend. The players at the national and state parties (as well as in the state governments) understand that any fix will have to be acceptable to both candidates.

The governors, lawmakers and political community in both states (and nationally) are working on various possible fixes, but this is an attempt BY THE CAMPAIGNS to stakeout what both would find acceptable, in order to give the states a target to work toward.

According to insiders the basic requirements of both campaigns could be met with “firehouse primaries in both states, with mail-in ballots for those who can’t make it.”

A “firehouse primary” involves fewer voting places at regional locations. Such an scenario would dramatically reduce costs.
A “Do-Over” of Florida’s primary would cost 20 million dollars, that is considered prohibitive.

Though Michigan’s nominating contests are called caucuses, as a matter of practice it is a ballot like a primary not a caucus like the meetings that take place in Iowa or Texas.

Insiders estimate that “fire house primaries in both states, with mail-in ballots for those who can’t make it” would cost about $10 million dollars for both states. Both campaigns could easily raise the money and keep it separate from regular campaign coffers.

The state political parties may also raise the money for party building. The national parties could also kick in money for party building as well. This would mean that the new votes would be paid for by the parties and the campaigns, not taxpayers.

Both campaigns agree it is unacceptable to NOT seat the Fla and Michigan delegates, recognizing that they are too influential in the general election and can’t be disenfranchised.

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The latest polls tell it all. McCain wants, and for now NEEDS his opponent to be Hillary. The latest Zogby poll shows McCain handily beating Hillary outside the margin of error, while if he goes up against Obama, McCain LOSES.
McCain has begun trying to define both dems – with particular emphasis last night on Obama. There is more time for the general election race than EVER before, so no campaign is in any hurry to start the serious attacking too soon.
The truth is some in the McCain camp are particularly comfortable with Obama riding higher and higher – the McCainiac argument is that the bigger Obama gets, the bigger the target and the harder the fall, in the fall.

Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

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After the sweep by Obama and McCain in the Potomac Primaries the latest delegate count by Real Clear Politics shows McCain has about 3/4 of the needed delegates and Huckabee has less than one quarter.

The actual delegate count is completely vague. Each campaign on both sides counts delegates differently. The AP and various networks have differing numbers too. On the democratic side, it is clear that Obama has the lead but by how much is the subject of debate and super delegates which are available only for the democratic contest are another story entirely.

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The latest RCP polls show Obama gaining ground on McCain in a head to head match-up with McCain. His lead is still within the margin of error in most polls and much can change in the next 9 months but McCain acknowledged Obama’s front-runner status in his victory speech in VA when he made reference to hope, “Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing…” and continued by saying “to encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope, it is a platitude.”

He finished his speech with Obama’s signature line, “Fired up and ready to go.”

National Head-to-Head Polls

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Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

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Rudy gets a Newt shout out on the Today Show. Not an endorsement but praise for cleaning up the big apple.

Rudy needs all the good press and punditry he can get. Not competing is hurting him in the polls.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Since 2000 some in NH have continued to call John McCain “President of New Hampshire.”

As FNC Chief White House correspondent in the Spring of 2006 I saw Senior McCainiacs visit the White House more than once – and they didn’t like me knowing they were there. Before I gave up the WH gig to return to the trail for this very race, Senior White House officials often uttered the words:

“It’s McCain’s turn.”

Of course he hired several top Bushies, rehired his 2000 team, added a few new folks and ran up huge bills. His organization was so sprawling it collapsed under its own weight – then imploded. He was written off. Wholesale firings and resignations before August were designed to get him back on track after Labor Day. The Petraeus report came out. So did Fred Thompson, occasionally. Huckabee went largely unnoticed in NH. So, when Thompson fizzled everywhere but South Carolina, NH became a 2 man race: Mitt v McCain.

Thompson’s absence in Iowa, and becuz McCain basically skipped it, turned Iowa into a Mitt v Huckabee battle. It is a cardinal rule in first-in-the-nation politics, NEVER be in first place in the final two months, attacks in the last month can ruin you. Mitt was further hampered by the need to battle on two fronts. McCain got a pass in Iowa’s expectations game. Huck gets a pass in NH. Mitt went to war in both places at once.

With most establishment republicans skeptical of Huckabee’s chances beyond South Carolina, many are now wrestling with the possibility that perhaps it is “McCain’s Turn.”

It is no secret that McCain has enemies. Decades of breaking with his party on a myriad of issues has costs. In 2000 his senate colleagues conducted a whisper campaign that described him as an unstable vindictive, egomaniac. And yet after losing, he backed President Bush on the war, and for re-election, and in 2006, and found compromises; notably The Gang of 14 deal that got the Presidents Supreme court justices approved.

McCain can go on and compete in Michigan -a state he carried in 2000. Then he can head to South Carolina where active and retired military are the highest per capita nationwide. We’ve been to countless VFW events and halls with McCain in SC.

Huck will be very tough in South Carolina, and Thompson is betting it all there. Southern Baptists make up 53% of the GOP according to Pew research…McCain’s got a confederate flag problem in the Palmetto state too, it could be tough.

But there will be more debates, more attack ads, new tests of their Presidential timber:

And the idea that the MAC IS BACK has alot of republicans and conservatives wondering if they are going to have to come to grips with it, all over again.

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Gloves off doesn’t cover it. More like knives out and sharpened for the stretch run.

Mitt unleashes another attack ad on Huckabee citing Condi’s “ludicrous” line (though not perhaps as she meant it). One of Huckabee’s new ads calls his “opponents” (wonder who) “desperate and dishonest” but he wants a real debate, you know, for the kids.

http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=728418

Romney had a gift under the tree (a grenade?) for McCain in the form of a NH ad on taxes and immigration. But did he bring a knife to a gunfight? McCain ad responds with a blistering recitation of editorial opinions on Mitt (phony? ouch) that the governor thinks is (at least) a step over the line.

http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=728416

Huckabee puts Pakistan and illegal immigration together and comes up with a stew that may have a little too much salt. He also defended McCain’s honor in light of Mitt attack ad. Enemy of my enemy?

And Rudy wants to be part of the conversation (didn’t anyone notice the 9/11 ad?) but since he is not a player in the early states he is having a hard time.

Dems still debating Pakistan. Did Axelrod cross the line? Obama says it is HRC’s campaign’s fault. Does HRC know anything more about foreign policy that what she learnt at tea time?

Check out the blow by blows at:

Embed’s Blog

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