It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

When John Edwards àrrived for the debate he dove right into the demonstrators, supporters and campaign rowdies. A classic retail move. Edwards has serious caucus skills.
Hillary Clinton was heralded by camo wearing law enforcement that appeared seconds before her staff and security laden motorcade pulled in.
Chelsea! was in a car ahead of the NY Senator and former first Lady. Mrs Clinton’s car whipped past the crowd as she stared straight forward, cell phone a fixed to her ear.

Sen Clinton has personally apologized to Sen Obama for remarks by her New Hampshire campaign chairman Billy Shaheen, the husband of Gov Jeanne Shaheen, who said yesterday that Obama’s past drug use could be used against him by Republicans in a general election. Shaheen  apologized for bringing up the drug issue, and the campaign immediately disavowed his comments.

Now, New Hampshire spokeswoman Kathleen Strand says “Sen. Clinton personally apologized to Sen. Obama this morning, and reiterated that this was not anything that came from the campaign or that we condone.” She confirmed that the apology took place at Washington’s Reagan National Airport as the two left the nation’s capital for a Des Moines, IA presidential debate.

After campaigning with her mother for two days in Iowa last week, Hillary Clinton is giving the Hawkeye State even more time with her mom — airing a TV ad featuring Dorothy Rodham addressing why her daughter should be the next president.

Speaking directly into the camera, Mrs. Rodham says she’d like people to know “what a good person” Hillary is, and how much she’s done to help women. She talks about her daughter’s childhood and her empathy for others over childhood photos and video of the Clinton women in the kitchen, with the caption “Hillary’s mom lives with her.”

The ad ends with Mrs. Rodham saying, “I think she ought to be elected, even if she weren’t my daughter.” done

After the AP reported that the Clinton campaign was preparing for a possible loss in Iowa by building a firewall in New Hampshire, two new polls show Obama pulling into a dead heat. A new WMUR poll has Hillary leading Barack Obama by a single point, 31-30. She once led the same poll by 20 points. And Rasmussen Reports actually has Obama ahead in the Granite State, 31-28.

Meanwhile, a new survey from Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision shows Obama ahead by 8 in Iowa, 33-25.  But a Rasmussen poll shows Hillary leading 29-26, confirming what everyone already knows about Iowa — it’s just too close to call.

To add insult to injury, the NY Daily News reports that Bill Clinton is so worried about the campaign’s recent performance that he’s taking a much more active role, and there are rumors of an impending staff shake-up — rumblings that were denied by Sen Clinton herself yesterday.

Our own Major Garrett reports that the Clinton campaign “exhibits increasing annoyance at what it regards as a ‘free ride’ for Obama from the political press corps and feels beseiged as it has to bat away incessant questions about declining poll numbers in early battleground states and accounts of deepening turmoil at the highest levels of the Clinton campaign.”

The Clinton folks are trying to end that free ride, pushing newly-surfaced voter questionnaires filled out by Obama that they believe underscore their contention that Obama is either too liberal, too inconsistent, or too unelectable — or all three.

Barack Obama’s campaign had a big New Hampshire endorsement to announce today; they won the support of Carol Shea-Porter, a freshman congresswoman, and the second  of two from the Granite State to back Obama. To roll out the endorsement, the campaign announced a 2pm conference call with the congresswoman — giving reporters about an hour’s notice.

Just about a half hour later, Hillary’s campaign announced their own 2pm conference call on electability — giving us less than 2o minutes warning.  On that call, Rep Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) took a shot at Obama for changing some of his  liberal positions laid out in a 1996 questionnaire obtained by the Politico, just because he’s running for national office. “I don’t frankly understand a candidate that seems to think he can offer one position in the early stages of his career, and then as he reaches the level of a national election, he can change from one position to the next,” she said.

But other than that direct response to the Politico piece, participants didn’t have much news to offer — leading reporters like yours truly to wonder why they held the hastily assembled call in the first place. Sen Evan Bayh (D-IN) talked about Hillary’s electability among moderate Republicans and Independents in the heartland, while Rep Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) stressed her appeal to women all over the country, who she said would come out in force in a general election.

Asked whether a new poll showing John Edwards performing best against Republican candidates meant he, not Hillary, was most electable, spokesman Phil Singer pointed to another poll in which most respondents called Hillary the most electable Democrat. But Edwards’ camp shot back with a memo with Democrats (mostly Edwards supporters) from red states cringing at a possible Clinton nomination’s effect on their reelection efforts, and praising Edwards as someone who could help down ticket Dems across the country.

After spending about a week on the campaign trail attacking Barack Obama over Health Care, Social Security, and his commitment to women’s rights, Hillary Clinton has gone back to emphasizing what she would do as president.

Gone are the frequent mentions of Obama by name, or even the veiled slaps at “some of my opponents” who have health care plans that won’t cover everyone. She’s even gone back to a line her husband used when he campaigned for her in July, saying it’s great to be a Democrat because there are so many fantastic candidates that “you don’t have to be against anyone.”

It could be because she’s been more focused on organizing Iowans to get to the caucuses — campaigning with her mother and daughter last week to ask experienced supporters to “buddy up” with first time caucus goers and make sure they get to their precincts on January 3rd. Or it could be because the attacks earned her a lot of negative press and some negative feeling among Iowans — and didn’t reverse a general downward trend in the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally.

Asked whether she’d given up the attacks because of sinking poll numbers, Sen Clinton told reporters that she would continue to draw distinctions with her opponents throughout the rest of the primary season. Watch what she had to say.done

As ABC’s Jake Tapper reports, even if those “contrasts” have stopped coming from Hillary’s mouth, they’re still flying through the mail.

To break up this uninterrupted string of GOP debate updates, here’s the latest ad from Hillary Clinton — a :60 second spot hitting the air in Iowa and New Hampshire. Called “New Beginning” (read: she can bring change), the ad lays out her big big policy goals over some stirring music and images. As Carl says, this is her closing argument of the primary campaign; it uses video from the campaign trail and hits all the highlights from her speeches — from her call for universal health care to ending the war in Iraq.

There are no “contrasts” (read: attacks on rivals) being drawn here, and you’re not likely to see any from any of the Democratic candidate. They’re all a bit gun shy after the two frontrunners in Iowa, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, engaged in a negative ad war last cycle and built up so much ill will among caucus goers that they both dropped out of the lead, ceding the state to John Kerry and John Edwards.

Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29