It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

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Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29

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A new Iowa survey from Strategic Vision, a Republican polling outfit, seems to confirm the recent pro-Obama trend in the state. The Illinois Senator leads the Democratic pack with 32%, followed by chief rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards at 25%. But as with all recent polls here, the numbers are within the margin of error.

Should Hillary be worried? The campaign can’t be happy with the trend lines in the horse race — especially since momentum always plays such a key role in Iowa. They also can’t be happy with the fact that she’s dropping among women, and that voters seem to care less about experience than change. But staffers constantly point out that polls don’t matter here. While that’s partially spin, since aides won’t hesitate to point out a poll that looks good for their candidate, there’s a lot of truth to the assertion.

I asked Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman, who runs the Fox News / Opinion Dynamics polls, why it’s so difficult to get a read on the Hawkeye state. “Polling in Iowa is very difficult and of very uncertain quality,” he wrote back. “This results from the following factors:

“1) Turnout is generally pretty low; thus extraneous factors can screw things. This is one of those few places where the ’snow on one town, no snow on another’ can actually matter.” (my note: in 2000, the last caucus that was contested in both parties, just 145,000 out of a voting-eligible population of 2.1 million showed up to caucus. That’s 6.6%. By comparison, 44.4% of eligible New Hampshire residents voted in the primary that year).

“2) Low turnout also means organization can matter a lot; in a normal election 5% is really “a lot”; in Iowa 20% is possible.” (my note: it also means the right kind of voter can matter a lot; previous caucus goers are much more likely to actually show up than first timers. This helps John Edwards, who has more of the established, older support in the state, while it’s challenged Obama and Clinton to figure out how to get younger Iowans to the caucuses)

“3) Iowans have come to believe in their own superior wisdom and influence on events; a chance to help a worthy 2nd tier candidate and keep them in the race can produce shifts.

“4) The public nature of the voting discourages oddball voting. People are less likely to vote for a Kucinich in front of their friends and neighbors (employers, customers).

“5) The [15%] threshold on the Dem side means that in the course of just the hour of voting the stronger candidates go up and the weaker ones go down. This means a pre-election poll is actually going to overestimate the bottom tier candidates.” (my note: And since candidates who don’t have the support of 15% of the voters at a caucus site are out of the running there, the second choice of all those Dodd, Biden, Kucinich and Richardson voters really does matter).

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Des Moines, Iowa-

NPR Moderator, Michelle Norris, discusses US and China policy and, if we’re losing our leverage over the Chinese.

Sampling of Answers.

Edwards: “America must engage the Chinese” on product Safety. ” Big corporations are driving American foreign policy with respect to China.”

Obama:” We’re losing our leverage …presence of China is only exceeded by the absence of the United States. We have to be tough negotiators with China…We have not been the best negotiatiors.”

Clinton: ” We have handicapped ourselves because of the irresponsible fiscal policies by the Bush administration..(but) we
need to have a strategic relationship with China.”

Biden:” We’re making them 10 feet tall.. a country with 800 million in poverty does not have greater leeverage over us ..Preposterous.” Biden said.
” What we’ve done is yield leverage (to big corporations)….As president, Bang, no importing of those (Chinese)toys.”

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The National Intelligence Estimate revealing that Iran dismantled its nuclear weapons program in 2003 has been the subject of the first 15 minutes of the NPR debate — with Hillary Clinton’s opponents using the new revelation to attack her vote for the Kyl-Lieberman resolution calling on President Bush to designate the Iranian National Guard a terrorist organization.

Senators Biden and Dodd voted against the resolution, while Obama, though he missed the vote, has criticized Hillary for supporting the resolution. And John Edwards has called it part of the rush for war, saying today that “among the Democratic candidates there’s only one who voted for this resolution, and it’s exactly what Bush and Cheney wanted.”

Responding to Edwards’ charges, Clinton said “I understand politics and making outlandish political charges, but this goes too far.”

She points out that many opponents of the Iraq war (including Obama supporter Dick Durbin) voted for the resolution, calling it a vote for aggressive diplomacy.   She also argued that since the vote commanders on the ground have said they’ve seen Iran draw back from its involvement in Iraq — a point that Joe Biden then disputed.

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Des Moines, Iowa

About 20 minutes into the Brown and Black Forum, Senator Joe Biden finally arrives. Hispanic moderator Ray Suarez welcomes him in. Biden walking on stage towards the one empty seat among the Democratic candidates, blames it on a seven hour drive from Chicago due to the ice storm hitting the Midwest. Biden laughingly blames it on not having a plane.

“Thank your for letting me be here” Biden crosses himself.

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