When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.

Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;

1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire

2) Giuliani was leading the national polls

3) Fred Thompson held early promise.

Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.

McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.

Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.

McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.

“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.

“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain

Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.

It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.

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It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

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When John Edwards àrrived for the debate he dove right into the demonstrators, supporters and campaign rowdies. A classic retail move. Edwards has serious caucus skills.
Hillary Clinton was heralded by camo wearing law enforcement that appeared seconds before her staff and security laden motorcade pulled in.
Chelsea! was in a car ahead of the NY Senator and former first Lady. Mrs Clinton’s car whipped past the crowd as she stared straight forward, cell phone a fixed to her ear.

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Barack Obama’s campaign had a big New Hampshire endorsement to announce today; they won the support of Carol Shea-Porter, a freshman congresswoman, and the second  of two from the Granite State to back Obama. To roll out the endorsement, the campaign announced a 2pm conference call with the congresswoman — giving reporters about an hour’s notice.

Just about a half hour later, Hillary’s campaign announced their own 2pm conference call on electability — giving us less than 2o minutes warning.  On that call, Rep Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) took a shot at Obama for changing some of his  liberal positions laid out in a 1996 questionnaire obtained by the Politico, just because he’s running for national office. “I don’t frankly understand a candidate that seems to think he can offer one position in the early stages of his career, and then as he reaches the level of a national election, he can change from one position to the next,” she said.

But other than that direct response to the Politico piece, participants didn’t have much news to offer — leading reporters like yours truly to wonder why they held the hastily assembled call in the first place. Sen Evan Bayh (D-IN) talked about Hillary’s electability among moderate Republicans and Independents in the heartland, while Rep Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) stressed her appeal to women all over the country, who she said would come out in force in a general election.

Asked whether a new poll showing John Edwards performing best against Republican candidates meant he, not Hillary, was most electable, spokesman Phil Singer pointed to another poll in which most respondents called Hillary the most electable Democrat. But Edwards’ camp shot back with a memo with Democrats (mostly Edwards supporters) from red states cringing at a possible Clinton nomination’s effect on their reelection efforts, and praising Edwards as someone who could help down ticket Dems across the country.

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Chicago, IL-

How long does it take to get from the Univision debate in Miami to the Iowa Public Television/Des Moines Register debate in Iowa? Well, I have been trying to get there for 20 hours and I’ve only made it to Chicago. Such is the life of an embed, but what a tale it is. Freezing rain here caused the initial 2-hour delay in Miami. Then after landing in Chicago I was ecstatic that the Des Moines flight had been delayed because it meant that I could still get to Iowa. At that point, I could still see the positive side of delays. . .how naïve!

We are delayed another hour and a half and then we board. I actually won the delayed flight lottery! I sit down and wait to pull out of the gate. Of course that never happens and instead the pilot comes on to announce that the flight has been cancelled. The tired, unhappy passengers, including myself, shuffle off. I am re-booked on the 6:25AM this morning and I am not allowed up pick up my bags because they are “locked up” so they can be re-loaded in the morning.

I wake up this morning at 4:15AM and the American Airlines website and automated phone line both say my flight is on time. As I get on the airport bus I have hope and I try to stay positive. That hope is quickly dashed as I see all the morning flights have been cancelled. American Airlines calls to inform me of the cancellation at 6AM, 30 minutes after my flight was supposed to take off. When did airline service get so bad?

I am now re-booked on a flight tomorrow morning. The weather is so severe in Iowa that Mike Huckabee and John Edwards have cancelled campaign events. Spouses are also being affected with both Ann Romney and President Clinton having to scrap their events as well. Governor Romney was able to meet with voters at the sky mall in downtown Des Moines today. But, evaded all questions regarding his new ad pointing out the differences between himself and Governor Huckabee on immigration.

Romney staffers are also affected by the severe weather with many also trying to get to Des Moines for tomorrow’s debate. Staffers are stranded here in Chicago, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Dallas, all trying to get to Iowa.  I’m stuck in Chicago with campaign photographer Abby Brack. Press Secretary Eric Fehrnstrom is stuck in Dallas, but hopeful he will make it to Iowa tonight.

Bad weather is something that plagues the first in the nation caucus almost every four years. It affects the voters getting out, the candidates campaigning, and of course the press trying to cover both. The caucus could depend on which group of supporters are hardy enough to handle the extreme weather.  Will I get to the debate? Keep checking back for updates!

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Organization is the name of the game in the early states, particularly Iowa’s caucuses.

Because the caucuses come right after Christmas and New Years candidates have begun their final grassroots organizational push early. Obama’s been doing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) rallies for a month! Traditionally such rallies don’t start until the final week. This time that final week is chock full of holidays so the candidates are frontloading their grassroots organizing.

For its’ January 3rd first in the nation caucus the Hawkeye state expects 125 thousand democrats and 60-80 thousand republicans to turnout.

That means that a democrat polling at 25% should have about 41 thousand committed supporters.

A republican could have between 15-20 thousand committed caucus supporters at 25% in the polls.

That is a pittance in terms of actual voters, less than a race for councilman or alderman in most large American Cities. The caucus is designed to be hard. It keeps outsiders away and guarantees that the electorate is highly motivated. They have to stand up in front of neighbors and disclose their political beliefs and it takes several hours on a cold winter weeknight!

Caucus voters need intense care and feeding. Campaigns rate supporters on a scale of 1-5 to gauge how best to work em. And they often get calls and visits and emails a dozen times per campaign.

Here is a look at past turnout and candidate percentages.

2004:
IOWA CAUCUS

DEMS 123,000 caucus voters
Kerry 38 Edwards 32% Dean 18%
GOP N/A
Bush Unopposed

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 219,787
Kerry 38 dean 26 Clark 12
GOP N/A 69,414.
Bush unopposed

SC PRIMARY

DEMS 293,843
Edwards45 Kerry30 Sharpton1O
GOP N/A Bush unopposed

2000:
Ia CAUCUS

Dems 75,000 caucus voters
Gore 63%; Bradley 35%
GOP shy of 90,000 caucus voters
Bush 41%,Forbes 30%

NH PRIMARY

GOP 238,206 (includes indies)
McCain. 49 Bush 30
Dems 154,000 (includes indies)
Gore 50 Bradley 46

SC PRIMARY

GOP 573,101
Bush 53 McCain 41
Dems primary too late to matter

1996:
IA CAUCUS

DEMS 75K
Clinton uncontested
GOP fewer than 100,000
Dole 26%, Buchanan 23%

NH PRIMARY

DEMS 91,027
Clinton uncontested
GOP 208,740
Buchanan 27 Dole 26 Lamar 22

SC PRIMARY

DEMS HELD CAUCUS
Clinton uncontested N/A
GOP 276,000
Dole 45 Buchanan 29

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A new Iowa survey from Strategic Vision, a Republican polling outfit, seems to confirm the recent pro-Obama trend in the state. The Illinois Senator leads the Democratic pack with 32%, followed by chief rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards at 25%. But as with all recent polls here, the numbers are within the margin of error.

Should Hillary be worried? The campaign can’t be happy with the trend lines in the horse race — especially since momentum always plays such a key role in Iowa. They also can’t be happy with the fact that she’s dropping among women, and that voters seem to care less about experience than change. But staffers constantly point out that polls don’t matter here. While that’s partially spin, since aides won’t hesitate to point out a poll that looks good for their candidate, there’s a lot of truth to the assertion.

I asked Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman, who runs the Fox News / Opinion Dynamics polls, why it’s so difficult to get a read on the Hawkeye state. “Polling in Iowa is very difficult and of very uncertain quality,” he wrote back. “This results from the following factors:

“1) Turnout is generally pretty low; thus extraneous factors can screw things. This is one of those few places where the ’snow on one town, no snow on another’ can actually matter.” (my note: in 2000, the last caucus that was contested in both parties, just 145,000 out of a voting-eligible population of 2.1 million showed up to caucus. That’s 6.6%. By comparison, 44.4% of eligible New Hampshire residents voted in the primary that year).

“2) Low turnout also means organization can matter a lot; in a normal election 5% is really “a lot”; in Iowa 20% is possible.” (my note: it also means the right kind of voter can matter a lot; previous caucus goers are much more likely to actually show up than first timers. This helps John Edwards, who has more of the established, older support in the state, while it’s challenged Obama and Clinton to figure out how to get younger Iowans to the caucuses)

“3) Iowans have come to believe in their own superior wisdom and influence on events; a chance to help a worthy 2nd tier candidate and keep them in the race can produce shifts.

“4) The public nature of the voting discourages oddball voting. People are less likely to vote for a Kucinich in front of their friends and neighbors (employers, customers).

“5) The [15%] threshold on the Dem side means that in the course of just the hour of voting the stronger candidates go up and the weaker ones go down. This means a pre-election poll is actually going to overestimate the bottom tier candidates.” (my note: And since candidates who don’t have the support of 15% of the voters at a caucus site are out of the running there, the second choice of all those Dodd, Biden, Kucinich and Richardson voters really does matter).

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Ames, Ia-

Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards was asked by a supporter late Tuesday about how he would respond to possible personal attacks on his background , especially if he won the Democratic nomination, that could frame him as” an ambulance-chasing” lawyer. However, the supporter, presented one
mandate from Edwards for his response: He must tell his favorite lawyer joke.

Edwards, laughed, pondered a minute, and then prefaced his joke by saying that he “swore of lawyer jokes”, then dove right in.

Edwards also said that his experiences taking on big corporations as lawyer would help him take on special interests in Washington as president.

However, no laughing matter for Edwards was the pledge he gave earlier in the day during the debate over China-Made Toys. Edwards,a father of two young children, pledged that no toys made in China would be purchased in the Edwards household over the Christmas season. I asked him about this during the avail; if he thought his Democratic rivals should also take similar pledges, and if Americans, as a whole, should avoid buying
China-made toys over Christmas.

After getting strong reviews from his NPR debate performance in Des Moines, Edwards takes a day off to spend time with family in North Carolina, then will be campaigning in South Carolina, before heading to New Hampshire.

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Des Moines-

Moderator Michelle Norris asked John Edwards that as a father of 2 small children if he would
be buying toys made in China over Christmas.

“No ma’mm”,Edwards responded. Norris said it must be hard with over 70 percent of toys being made in China.

Chris Dodd, also a father, piped in during the exchange, ” I’m only buying toys made in Iowa.”

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