Marina Del Ray, CA:

Marina Del Ray, CA

Two things matter; whether the 22 states voting tomorrow are “winner take all” AND whether their primary is open or closed.

Ten of the delegate-rich states including New York are “winner take all.” California and New York are two states that hold closed primaries. No independents, only registered Republicans in those closed primaries will be putting their ballots in the box for McCain, Romney or Huckabee. This should benefit Mitt since conservative Republicans view McCain with suspicion.

California with 173 delegates is a proportional state with a closed primary. McCain was leading but Mitt has closed the gap so he added a quick last minute campaign stop there. Even coming in second, he could gain a sizable number of delegates.

New York with it’s 101 delegates is a winner take all and closed primary and McCain is the clear favorite there.

The Bay state with 43 is heavily favored for Mitt even though McCain staked a claim there while watching the Giants best the Patriots last night.

In many southern states Huckabee is competing within the margin of error, including Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama. His staying in the race peels votes from Romney and has led to a sharp back and forth between the two with Mitt calling it “vote stealing” and Huckabee accusing Mitt of trying to suppress the vote. Romney seems to be gaining momentum in some of those southern states.

McCain is at a clear advantage in delegate count but Romney numbers have tightened in some of the latest polls following attacks by Romney accusing McCain of not being sufficiently conservative enough.

36 hours until polls close and even then it may be hours later before the final delegate totals are in.

In all the latest National polls according to Real Clear Politics, McCain holds a sizable lead of 18 points or more over Romney. The only exception is the latest Rasmussen polls conducted between Jan 29 and Feb 1. Scott Rasmussen has just began his daily national track and his poll shows Romney leading with a double digit lead among Republican conservatives, which pulls him even with McCain who beats Mitt two to one among others Republicans.

In the dialect of polling science, this may be an “outlier” meaning this could be accurate but it’s so inconsistent with any of the other polls that unless other polls match it within the next few days it may be written off as a statistical aberration.

Polling Data

The truth is he may be able to come in second in several southern and conservative states including Ga., Al., Mo., Ok, and his home state of Arkansas. He could even squeak out wins if things go right. Every vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, or at least that is what Mitt Romney himself has said.

Do not forget!! Out of the 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 GOP convention that takes place 2/5 –10 are winner take all but in 11 contests delegates are awarded proportionately to the top three. Mitt and Huck will have some delegates even if they win no states.

Romney surrogates have been blasting Huckabee in many of those states and others. Publicly Romney is focused on McCain but in several conservative states where Huckabee is popular the Romney camp is attacking Huckabee too.

Huckabee was asked if a poor Super Tuesday showing might end his candidacy today and said not only does he not want to quit he can’t! His explanation is that

“it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog”

and he’s got plenty left. Furthermore Huckaboomers want him to stay in and Huck himself believes that if republicans don’t pick him they should pick McCain and not Romney

Huckabee’s attacks on Romney have many speculating that the former Ark Gov is auditioning for the McCain veep spot.

Presidential candidates have spent $107 million on television advertising so far this season, according to the Wisconsin Project which has always done tremendous data crunching of national presidential campaigns.  Nearly all of the money was spent in the weeks and months leading up to the earliest primaries and caucuses and almost none of it on Super Tuesday states.

Although Mitt Romney announced yesterday plans to go up on the air, no Republican candidate had advertised by last Sunday in Super Tuesday states.

 Democrats and Republicans aired roughly 150,000 ads total during this time, spending approximately the same amount on an air campaign that was mostly positive but lopsided within the GOP. Republican Mitt Romney spent as much as all of his opponents combined – and almost four times as much as John McCain in Florida. Yet McCain bested Romney in Florida, as he did in New Hampshire and South Carolina, despite spending less than a quarter on ads. 

Republican ads featured the issues of taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration

90% of nearly all candidates’ ads were judged “positive,” with only 10% determined to be “contrast” in nature and none “negative,” save for eleven ads aired by Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Romney were the candidate of “change,” repeating that mantra in one-third of his ads,

These are among the findings of a new report from the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that analyzed data obtained from the TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group (TNSMI/CMAG). The report analyses political television advertising in 90% of TV households across the country and include all data through Sunday, January 27.

Not surprisingly, Iowa and New Hampshire led all other states in markets – including adjacent markets like Boston or Omaha – targeted for presidential campaign ads. They were followed by South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Michigan far behind. Voters in and around Des Moines saw almost 22,000 ads this campaign, worth more than $15 million, while their New Hampshire counterparts – those watching Manchester and Boston TV anyway, saw about exactly the same. 

In fact, the lone TV station in Manchester, New Hampshire, WMUR-TV, saw 14,000 ads alone with more money spent there than in all Super Tuesday states combined.

 Through Sunday, only $8 million had been spent in Super Tuesday states on TV – $3 million in California alone – yet nine days out from the New Hampshire primary, $26 million had been spent there, and at the same point before the Iowa caucuses, $36 million had been spent there.

 Furthermore, as of last Sunday, none of the Republicans had purchased any of $8 million in Super Tuesday states. “Talk about a compressed Super Tuesday campaign,” Goldstein says. “Until this week, no Republican was on TV in these key states at all.”

Republican candidates led the majority of their TV commercials with a variety of traditional conservative issues – taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration, all three leading Democrats led with the same. Meanwhile, more than 29% of Romney’s ads also used the word change.

 But if “change” has been a big word in presidential campaign ads so far the year, the American flag has been the most popular image. McCain wrapped himself in the flag more than any other leading candidate, with 77% of his TV ads displaying the patriotic image. Close behind was Giuliani, with 65% of his spots doing the same, and Romney with 44% of his.

The only pure negative ad aired by a candidate to date was aired by Mike Huckabee. The ad, criticizing Mitt Romney, was pulled, but not before it aired 11 times in Iowa markets

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

While campaigning in Birmingham, Alabama, Huckabee came to McCain’s defense. Romney called McCain dishonest yesterday and Huckabee was quick to defend McCain. Is he trying to secure the Veep position in a McCain Administration?

See his remarks here.

Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted – so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

Mitt could be having a moment. In the first polls after South Carolina Romney was ahead. McCain got the Palmetto state bounce and inched ahead. Rudy tanked. Fred bailed -which helped Huckabee, who according to Mason Dixon could beat Rudy for third.

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

Rudy is in trouble. At every event some supporter will tell me about being worried that he’s fading. Seniors, vets, and transplants, in South Florida like McCain and Romney too. Crowd members repeatedly note Rudy’s absence from the news for the last month and lament that he did not compete with others elsewhere.

All politics is local but not always a winner. Hizzoner’s support for a National Catastrophic Insurance fund is very popular but Floridians aren’t rubes. The land of recount injunctions and Supreme court appeals is not likely to miss so blatant a pander.

In short:
Governor Charlie Crist pushed a measure through the legislature aimed at lowering skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane plagued Florida. Premiums may have stabilized but state taxpayers are now on the hook if the insurance companies can’t handle a future disaster. Crist now wants Washington to establish a $250 billion National Catastrophic Insurance fund that would ostensibly put taxpayers in all 50 states on the hook for Florida (and other states) should bailing out the insurance companies require catastrophic state tax hikes.

Rudy has signed on to it. Critics in Florida and elsewhere think its doomed as a big government risk guarantee for disaster insurance, funded by taxpayers in 50 states.

Giuliani has spent a lot of time around the I-4 corridor and his aides are talking up big crowds. That’s ironic since in big states like Florida crowd size is not really that relevant. Rally enthusiasm and attendance is a good yardstick in early retail states. Rudy did a bit of it in NH, but nothing compared to Mitt and McCain. The most stunning thing about Rudy’s support is that in Southern Florida (from Boca Raton to Miami Beach..affectionately known as the 6th buro of NY for all the Big Apple snowbirds and transplants) McCain leads by 10% in the Miami herald Poll.

Still Rudy is a respected and much loved hero. His staff is working triple time and they are crackerjack pro’s. Ever optimistic, doggedly loyal, disciplined message managers, they all hate to lose and are not familiar with it.

DO NOT BE shocked by a final Rudy surge before Tuesday.

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans? Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Anything can happen. The polls could be wrong. Romney could win Florida and tank February 5th. McCain could EASILY win Florida. Rudy could re-surge.

But if Romney pulls out a victory in Florida he will have arrived. His talking point will no longer be that he won Michigan and leads in delegates, it will be that for the first time there is a clear front-runner heading into February 5th, and he’s it.

Florida now looks like a TWO man race: The latest Poll taken on 1/22 and 1/23 shows Rudy decline:

Romney 30

McCain 26

Giuliani 18

Huckabee 15

400 likely GOP voters, surveyed 1/22-23, Margin of error +/- 5%

Polling Data

Arkansans Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee grew up in the same town and enjoy unique communication skills. The image of them in the same pew on Martin Luther King day is laden with messages. More in a moment.

video

Huckabee is shopping for February 5th states and Georgia is high on his list. A visit to the Ebeneezer Baptist Church where Martin Luther King ministered fits neatly into Huckabee’s desired profile of a conservative Republican with cross-over appeal among Democrats and Independents.

GOP campaign shakeups:

Fred Thompson sources say the actor and former Tenn senator may withdraw from the race. There are no plans to attend Thursday’s Florida debate.
Staffers have been on partial pay since the NH primary. The Senators plans are very fluid. As of 8:45 this evening, there are no plans for any announcement about whether he will stay in the race or not. The team is wrestling with very few options. The Senator is in Nashville visiting his mother (in her 90’s) who has been ill.
From THE FIRST DAY Fox News broke the story last March of his candidacy, Thompson has always had a vice presidential bid in mind. Today a top aide even mentioned the idea on Brian and the Judge on Fox News Radio.

Mike Huckabee, has also kept vice presidential options open by NOT strongly criticizing Giuliani or McCain. Huckabee is retooling his campaign to cherrypick some Super Tuesday states on Feb 5th (notably Ga and Alabama).
Huck bet the ranch on SC and coming in second did little for his weak Fla organization and almost NO organization anywhere else. Fla and Feb 5th are dauntingly expensive. Sources say Huck has money, but nowhere near what he’d like for the BIG states ahead.

Rudy Guiliani says he will continue to discuss issue differences with his rivals but will not go negative. Hizzoner’s team went into Fla a month ago prepared to spend more than $8 million dollars to win. Rudy does not have a lot of money left and he’s cratering in the polls. He may need to rethink playing nice.
A Fla defeat could effectively send Rudy from the big leagues to the Veepstakes as well.

John McCain is tapped out to. His early wins have not exactly created a firehose of cash. But what he lacks in web donations he will will try to make up for with a big fundraiser this week in NYC…right in Rudy’s backyard…where McCain now leads the polls. None of McCain’s rivals want to take the first punch (lest they suffer a backlash and lose ground too) in a multi candidate field. If he emerges the unscathed frontrunner from Thursdays
Fla debate, he will be HARD to beat.

Mitt Romney leads the estimated delegate count after 6 contests with three wins, two seconds, and a fourth. He has spent considerable time and money in Fla and is competitive (in the top 3) in every poll (even leading some.). Romney has no plans for attack ads, at this point.
Florida could be tough for Mitt, he has support but it is not firmly committed. Importantly, in this race there are no delegates for “silver or bronze”…the sunshine state is winner take all.