CPAC showdown?
Huckabee and Romney supporters hope to turn the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC this week into an anti-McCain fest.
Mitt, Huck and McCain are all slated to speak and if McCain does not all but lock it up Super Tuesday, CPAC provides his rivals with a great chance to again argue that McCain is not reliably or sufficiently conservative enough to lead the GOP.
Also: watch for the anti-McCain whisper campaign about ethics.
The Az Sen and former Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee faces no allegations, investigations or charges, but recently acknowledged hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid reports in the NYT’s of ethics concerns swirling around McCain.

Marina Del Ray, CA:

Marina Del Ray, CA

Two things matter; whether the 22 states voting tomorrow are “winner take all” AND whether their primary is open or closed.

Ten of the delegate-rich states including New York are “winner take all.” California and New York are two states that hold closed primaries. No independents, only registered Republicans in those closed primaries will be putting their ballots in the box for McCain, Romney or Huckabee. This should benefit Mitt since conservative Republicans view McCain with suspicion.

California with 173 delegates is a proportional state with a closed primary. McCain was leading but Mitt has closed the gap so he added a quick last minute campaign stop there. Even coming in second, he could gain a sizable number of delegates.

New York with it’s 101 delegates is a winner take all and closed primary and McCain is the clear favorite there.

The Bay state with 43 is heavily favored for Mitt even though McCain staked a claim there while watching the Giants best the Patriots last night.

In many southern states Huckabee is competing within the margin of error, including Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama. His staying in the race peels votes from Romney and has led to a sharp back and forth between the two with Mitt calling it “vote stealing” and Huckabee accusing Mitt of trying to suppress the vote. Romney seems to be gaining momentum in some of those southern states.

McCain is at a clear advantage in delegate count but Romney numbers have tightened in some of the latest polls following attacks by Romney accusing McCain of not being sufficiently conservative enough.

36 hours until polls close and even then it may be hours later before the final delegate totals are in.

In all the latest National polls according to Real Clear Politics, McCain holds a sizable lead of 18 points or more over Romney. The only exception is the latest Rasmussen polls conducted between Jan 29 and Feb 1. Scott Rasmussen has just began his daily national track and his poll shows Romney leading with a double digit lead among Republican conservatives, which pulls him even with McCain who beats Mitt two to one among others Republicans.

In the dialect of polling science, this may be an “outlier” meaning this could be accurate but it’s so inconsistent with any of the other polls that unless other polls match it within the next few days it may be written off as a statistical aberration.

Polling Data

 On Saturday, February 3, Maine caucused….Mitt won for an additional 18 delegate votes. Maine is in his own Bay State backyard so there was little doubt of Mitt’s advantage in a caucus in which organization counts.

Shushannah Walshe, our embed producer has more on Romney’s 4th gold!

SHOW ME STATE IS A 3 MAN SHOWDOWN, TENNESSEE IS A TOSSUP TOO, MCCAIN LOOKS FOR ALABAMA GETAWAY.

• Missouri: McCain 32% Huckabee 29% Romney 28%
• Tennessee: McCain 32% Romney 29% Huckabee 23%
• Alabama: McCain 38% Huckabee 30%

Missouri is winner take all with 58 delegates. The latest ARG polls out today shows Huckabee leading 31-29 over McCain with Romney at 27.

McCain appears to have a hammer lock on NY, NJ, Ct, DE, and Az,,,for a total of 251 delegates to start. He leads in Delaware 41-35 over Romney in the latest ARG poll.

Romney has Utah in hand where there is a large Mormon population and 36 winner take all delegates. Massachusetts has 43 delegates and Romney has a big lead but it is not winner take all and McCain is playing to win there. Romney is also making a move on West Virginia’s 18 winner take all delegates, and competing in Co., Mn., Mt., and N.D.
Mike Huckabee leads the RCP average of polls in Georgia based on a big bump in a recent Insider Advantage survey. Huck trailed in two earlier polls, Georgia has 72 non-winner take all delegates. Arkansas should be a gimmee for Huck with its 34 proportionately awarded delegates.

There is also a poll from WSMV-TV that shows Huckabee leading in Tennessee 24-23 over McCain.

The truth is he may be able to come in second in several southern and conservative states including Ga., Al., Mo., Ok, and his home state of Arkansas. He could even squeak out wins if things go right. Every vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, or at least that is what Mitt Romney himself has said.

Do not forget!! Out of the 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 GOP convention that takes place 2/5 –10 are winner take all but in 11 contests delegates are awarded proportionately to the top three. Mitt and Huck will have some delegates even if they win no states.

Romney surrogates have been blasting Huckabee in many of those states and others. Publicly Romney is focused on McCain but in several conservative states where Huckabee is popular the Romney camp is attacking Huckabee too.

Huckabee was asked if a poor Super Tuesday showing might end his candidacy today and said not only does he not want to quit he can’t! His explanation is that

“it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog”

and he’s got plenty left. Furthermore Huckaboomers want him to stay in and Huck himself believes that if republicans don’t pick him they should pick McCain and not Romney

Huckabee’s attacks on Romney have many speculating that the former Ark Gov is auditioning for the McCain veep spot.

McCAIN PLAYS TO DEFEAT MITT ONCE AND FOR ALL IN MASSACHUSETTS

With a commanding lead in most super Tuesday states GOP front-runner John MCCain is looking for a put away punch in Mitt Romney’s home state of Massachusetts.

McCain hopes to win a big majority of the 1,023 nomination delegates that are up for grabs in the 21 states that have contests 2/5 (there are 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 state convention,
Ten of the races are winner take all) But Romney has signaled that may not push him out of the race.

The McCain campaign believes beating Romney “in the state where people know him best” would be a decisive blow that would force Romney to reconsider and ultimately withdraw.  However all the latest polls show Romney with a decisive lead in the bay state.

As FOX was first to report Wednesday, McCain plans to watch the Super Bowl and campaign in Boston!! Sunday night and Monday morning.

McCain has TV ads on the air in Massachusetts via a current national cable buy. Aides say they are going up with local radio spots tonight. In addition Former Massachusetts Governor(s) Jane Swift and Paul Cellucci both have full schedules of surrogate campaign events on behalf of McCain – they are not saying nice things about Mitt.

Finally the campaign has launched an aggressive robo telephone call blitz and expects helpful editorials from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald newspapers which have both endorsed McCain.

Romney has said repeatedly to FOX NEWS and others in recent days that he plans to continue after Super Tuesday and will assess his best path forward after the results are tabulated.

Presidential candidates have spent $107 million on television advertising so far this season, according to the Wisconsin Project which has always done tremendous data crunching of national presidential campaigns.  Nearly all of the money was spent in the weeks and months leading up to the earliest primaries and caucuses and almost none of it on Super Tuesday states.

Although Mitt Romney announced yesterday plans to go up on the air, no Republican candidate had advertised by last Sunday in Super Tuesday states.

 Democrats and Republicans aired roughly 150,000 ads total during this time, spending approximately the same amount on an air campaign that was mostly positive but lopsided within the GOP. Republican Mitt Romney spent as much as all of his opponents combined – and almost four times as much as John McCain in Florida. Yet McCain bested Romney in Florida, as he did in New Hampshire and South Carolina, despite spending less than a quarter on ads. 

Republican ads featured the issues of taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration

90% of nearly all candidates’ ads were judged “positive,” with only 10% determined to be “contrast” in nature and none “negative,” save for eleven ads aired by Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Romney were the candidate of “change,” repeating that mantra in one-third of his ads,

These are among the findings of a new report from the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that analyzed data obtained from the TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group (TNSMI/CMAG). The report analyses political television advertising in 90% of TV households across the country and include all data through Sunday, January 27.

Not surprisingly, Iowa and New Hampshire led all other states in markets – including adjacent markets like Boston or Omaha – targeted for presidential campaign ads. They were followed by South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Michigan far behind. Voters in and around Des Moines saw almost 22,000 ads this campaign, worth more than $15 million, while their New Hampshire counterparts – those watching Manchester and Boston TV anyway, saw about exactly the same. 

In fact, the lone TV station in Manchester, New Hampshire, WMUR-TV, saw 14,000 ads alone with more money spent there than in all Super Tuesday states combined.

 Through Sunday, only $8 million had been spent in Super Tuesday states on TV – $3 million in California alone – yet nine days out from the New Hampshire primary, $26 million had been spent there, and at the same point before the Iowa caucuses, $36 million had been spent there.

 Furthermore, as of last Sunday, none of the Republicans had purchased any of $8 million in Super Tuesday states. “Talk about a compressed Super Tuesday campaign,” Goldstein says. “Until this week, no Republican was on TV in these key states at all.”

Republican candidates led the majority of their TV commercials with a variety of traditional conservative issues – taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration, all three leading Democrats led with the same. Meanwhile, more than 29% of Romney’s ads also used the word change.

 But if “change” has been a big word in presidential campaign ads so far the year, the American flag has been the most popular image. McCain wrapped himself in the flag more than any other leading candidate, with 77% of his TV ads displaying the patriotic image. Close behind was Giuliani, with 65% of his spots doing the same, and Romney with 44% of his.

The only pure negative ad aired by a candidate to date was aired by Mike Huckabee. The ad, criticizing Mitt Romney, was pulled, but not before it aired 11 times in Iowa markets

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

Prepare for a late night in Florida. Romney and McCain are splitting within the margin of error. In the final hours of campaigning, often at polling stations, McCain took one final swipe at Romney, blaming him for the negative campaigning.

Hear what he says as reported by Shus Walshe, our intrepid Romney embed producer

Romney got in a gentle jab, “One of the candidates running out there said the economy is not his strong suit. Well, it’s my strong suit!” He also reminded supporters at his only event of the day, almost as an afterthought, to get out there and vote.

According to the Florida Republican Party 1.5 million republicans could turn out to vote NOT including absentee and early voters. It could take upward of half a million votes to cinch those crucial 57 electoral votes for one of the contestants.

It’s winner take all, 57 delegates! Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are battling for third.