In all the latest National polls according to Real Clear Politics, McCain holds a sizable lead of 18 points or more over Romney. The only exception is the latest Rasmussen polls conducted between Jan 29 and Feb 1. Scott Rasmussen has just began his daily national track and his poll shows Romney leading with a double digit lead among Republican conservatives, which pulls him even with McCain who beats Mitt two to one among others Republicans.

In the dialect of polling science, this may be an “outlier” meaning this could be accurate but it’s so inconsistent with any of the other polls that unless other polls match it within the next few days it may be written off as a statistical aberration.

Polling Data

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Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted – so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

Mitt could be having a moment. In the first polls after South Carolina Romney was ahead. McCain got the Palmetto state bounce and inched ahead. Rudy tanked. Fred bailed -which helped Huckabee, who according to Mason Dixon could beat Rudy for third.

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

Rudy is in trouble. At every event some supporter will tell me about being worried that he’s fading. Seniors, vets, and transplants, in South Florida like McCain and Romney too. Crowd members repeatedly note Rudy’s absence from the news for the last month and lament that he did not compete with others elsewhere.

All politics is local but not always a winner. Hizzoner’s support for a National Catastrophic Insurance fund is very popular but Floridians aren’t rubes. The land of recount injunctions and Supreme court appeals is not likely to miss so blatant a pander.

In short:
Governor Charlie Crist pushed a measure through the legislature aimed at lowering skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane plagued Florida. Premiums may have stabilized but state taxpayers are now on the hook if the insurance companies can’t handle a future disaster. Crist now wants Washington to establish a $250 billion National Catastrophic Insurance fund that would ostensibly put taxpayers in all 50 states on the hook for Florida (and other states) should bailing out the insurance companies require catastrophic state tax hikes.

Rudy has signed on to it. Critics in Florida and elsewhere think its doomed as a big government risk guarantee for disaster insurance, funded by taxpayers in 50 states.

Giuliani has spent a lot of time around the I-4 corridor and his aides are talking up big crowds. That’s ironic since in big states like Florida crowd size is not really that relevant. Rally enthusiasm and attendance is a good yardstick in early retail states. Rudy did a bit of it in NH, but nothing compared to Mitt and McCain. The most stunning thing about Rudy’s support is that in Southern Florida (from Boca Raton to Miami Beach..affectionately known as the 6th buro of NY for all the Big Apple snowbirds and transplants) McCain leads by 10% in the Miami herald Poll.

Still Rudy is a respected and much loved hero. His staff is working triple time and they are crackerjack pro’s. Ever optimistic, doggedly loyal, disciplined message managers, they all hate to lose and are not familiar with it.

DO NOT BE shocked by a final Rudy surge before Tuesday.

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans? Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Anything can happen. The polls could be wrong. Romney could win Florida and tank February 5th. McCain could EASILY win Florida. Rudy could re-surge.

But if Romney pulls out a victory in Florida he will have arrived. His talking point will no longer be that he won Michigan and leads in delegates, it will be that for the first time there is a clear front-runner heading into February 5th, and he’s it.

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Mitt Romney is bouyant tonite as the last Michigan polls prepare to close at 9pm eastern time. He is even going back on the air in SC -briefly- with an ad. But Romney is really eyeing Nevada for his next win and will
spend at least Thursday and some of Friday there before the caucuses Saturday.

Check out Shushannah Walshe’s update.

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The first in the south republican debate just ended. Who won? …

John McCain talks with Sean Hannity post debate.

Fred Thompson chats with Alan Colmes.

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Real Clear Politics breaks down the delegate count and shows the Republican race is still fluid. To see more go to Real Clear Politics.

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HuckaBOOM!
Comes the Revolution?
Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters.
That populism will now be expanded to emphasize fair trade, a tough but compassionate approach to illegal immigration reform, and the “fair tax” (replace income taxes with a 23% sales tax)
These will be among the things Huckabee will use to cast himself as the outsider against John McCain (ironic since McCain is often criticized as a maverick, but he was the chairman of the senate commerce cmte) and Mitt Romney who he has already cast as too rich to be able to connect with average folks.
McCain had an edge in NH against Romney, in a three way race including Huckabee, McCain may be even more strenghtened now.
Obama’s big win will inspire independents in NH…bad news for Rudy Giuliani who was counting on Indies for a respectable first primary showing.
Money matters.
Romney looks even worse having outspent Huckabee 10-1 in Iowa. Huckabee will enjoy a fundraising windfall now and the press will be huge, But Romney is a mult millionaire and willing to keep spending “for the long haul.”
Giuliani, McCain, Thompson all have cash problems. Not so Mitt.
Romney and Huckabee aides agree tonite was an anti washington message, and they note Obama’s change message is part of that.
Huckabee knows NH is far more secular than Iowa or South Carolina. Earlier this wk, Huckabee aides routinely said if they won they would next emphasize SC. That will shift now as they embrace the magnitude of tonites win and make a renewed effort in NH…
As one aide put it “this is a big wave, we can surf anywhere now.” That may be overconfident but with two debates this weekend and a record of strong debate performances, Huckabee knows a moment is at hand.

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It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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9 days and the countdown to Iowa’s first in the nation caucuses is on.
Shifts in momentum and polls will be fast and furious.
The early states are all about expectations.
Huckabee faces high expectations, he’s under fire as long on style but short on substance and fiscal and national security conservatism. He has precious little going organizationally in subsequent states.
Romney’s year long lead in leadoff Iowa and NH is gone. He’s underfire as a wellfunded phoney and panderer who flipflopped right on social issues to run for president, and inflates his resume and experiences.
He’s attacking Huck (who’s under fire from a chorus of establishment GOPers) as weak on crime and illegal immigration in Iowa. Mitt’s slamming McCain in NH for opposing the Bush tax cuts.
McCain has surged into a first place tie with Romney in anti tax NH. But, like Huckabee, McCain has cash and organizational problems outside of NH.
Rudy Giuliani welcomed the holiday interruption of what was a VERY rough patch. He has been slipping in the polls, absent from headlines and openly admitting he will lose states and his strategy has people worried.
It is hard to explain Fred Thompson. He has a shot at third in Iowa. That could give him some steam in S.C. but his fate may hinge more on others flaming out rather than him going out and winning it.

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Houston, TX-

Blowing up in the blogosphere today were allegations of a subliminal image, a cross, in the background of Mike Huckabee’s new “What Really Matters ” ad. Some bloggers, and political observers, see the image in the ad as an appeal, or clandestine wink, to Evangelicals, a prominent GOP base that Huckabee has been successfully courting in his surging campaign. One of his opponents, Ron Paul, said the purported image goes too far.

“It reminds me of what Sinclair Lewis once said. He says, ‘when fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in the flag, carrying a cross,’ ” Paul told Fox News. “Now I don’t know whether that’s a fair assessment or not, but you wonder about using a cross, like he is the only Christian.”

Huckabee’s New Ad

Fox News caught up with Governor Huckabee while he took a fundraising tour through Texas today, and asked him about his new ad.

“It’s a bookshelf.It’s nothing more than a book shelf,” Huckabee responded, chuckling in disbelief.” All the people that are reading something into it, have made us all laugh out loud…insane.

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Per Jake Gibson: Des Moines, Iowa

Sunday supporters of Ron Paul organized a fundraiser on the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. They raised an astonishing 6 million dollars! Even Dr. Paul seemed stunned.

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