When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.

Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;

1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire

2) Giuliani was leading the national polls

3) Fred Thompson held early promise.

Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.

McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.

Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.

McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.

“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.

“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain

Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.

It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.

McCAIN PLAYS TO DEFEAT MITT ONCE AND FOR ALL IN MASSACHUSETTS

With a commanding lead in most super Tuesday states GOP front-runner John MCCain is looking for a put away punch in Mitt Romney’s home state of Massachusetts.

McCain hopes to win a big majority of the 1,023 nomination delegates that are up for grabs in the 21 states that have contests 2/5 (there are 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 state convention,
Ten of the races are winner take all) But Romney has signaled that may not push him out of the race.

The McCain campaign believes beating Romney “in the state where people know him best” would be a decisive blow that would force Romney to reconsider and ultimately withdraw.  However all the latest polls show Romney with a decisive lead in the bay state.

As FOX was first to report Wednesday, McCain plans to watch the Super Bowl and campaign in Boston!! Sunday night and Monday morning.

McCain has TV ads on the air in Massachusetts via a current national cable buy. Aides say they are going up with local radio spots tonight. In addition Former Massachusetts Governor(s) Jane Swift and Paul Cellucci both have full schedules of surrogate campaign events on behalf of McCain – they are not saying nice things about Mitt.

Finally the campaign has launched an aggressive robo telephone call blitz and expects helpful editorials from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald newspapers which have both endorsed McCain.

Romney has said repeatedly to FOX NEWS and others in recent days that he plans to continue after Super Tuesday and will assess his best path forward after the results are tabulated.

Presidential candidates have spent $107 million on television advertising so far this season, according to the Wisconsin Project which has always done tremendous data crunching of national presidential campaigns.  Nearly all of the money was spent in the weeks and months leading up to the earliest primaries and caucuses and almost none of it on Super Tuesday states.

Although Mitt Romney announced yesterday plans to go up on the air, no Republican candidate had advertised by last Sunday in Super Tuesday states.

 Democrats and Republicans aired roughly 150,000 ads total during this time, spending approximately the same amount on an air campaign that was mostly positive but lopsided within the GOP. Republican Mitt Romney spent as much as all of his opponents combined – and almost four times as much as John McCain in Florida. Yet McCain bested Romney in Florida, as he did in New Hampshire and South Carolina, despite spending less than a quarter on ads. 

Republican ads featured the issues of taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration

90% of nearly all candidates’ ads were judged “positive,” with only 10% determined to be “contrast” in nature and none “negative,” save for eleven ads aired by Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Romney were the candidate of “change,” repeating that mantra in one-third of his ads,

These are among the findings of a new report from the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that analyzed data obtained from the TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group (TNSMI/CMAG). The report analyses political television advertising in 90% of TV households across the country and include all data through Sunday, January 27.

Not surprisingly, Iowa and New Hampshire led all other states in markets – including adjacent markets like Boston or Omaha – targeted for presidential campaign ads. They were followed by South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Michigan far behind. Voters in and around Des Moines saw almost 22,000 ads this campaign, worth more than $15 million, while their New Hampshire counterparts – those watching Manchester and Boston TV anyway, saw about exactly the same. 

In fact, the lone TV station in Manchester, New Hampshire, WMUR-TV, saw 14,000 ads alone with more money spent there than in all Super Tuesday states combined.

 Through Sunday, only $8 million had been spent in Super Tuesday states on TV – $3 million in California alone – yet nine days out from the New Hampshire primary, $26 million had been spent there, and at the same point before the Iowa caucuses, $36 million had been spent there.

 Furthermore, as of last Sunday, none of the Republicans had purchased any of $8 million in Super Tuesday states. “Talk about a compressed Super Tuesday campaign,” Goldstein says. “Until this week, no Republican was on TV in these key states at all.”

Republican candidates led the majority of their TV commercials with a variety of traditional conservative issues – taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration, all three leading Democrats led with the same. Meanwhile, more than 29% of Romney’s ads also used the word change.

 But if “change” has been a big word in presidential campaign ads so far the year, the American flag has been the most popular image. McCain wrapped himself in the flag more than any other leading candidate, with 77% of his TV ads displaying the patriotic image. Close behind was Giuliani, with 65% of his spots doing the same, and Romney with 44% of his.

The only pure negative ad aired by a candidate to date was aired by Mike Huckabee. The ad, criticizing Mitt Romney, was pulled, but not before it aired 11 times in Iowa markets

Los Angeles, California:

At a solar technologies factory in Los Angeles, Arnold Schwarzenegger gave McCain his nod of approval. He gave his endorsement after a tour of the green technology plant.   Two days after Rudy’s poor showing in the Florida primary and his endorsing of McCain, he joined them on the tour and also spoke a few words of support for McCain.

The tour highlighted McCain’s emphasis on combating climate change while growing the economy. McCain said the GOP must win independents and moderates in order to keep the White House.

McCain also announced that he would be receiving another major endorsement; that of Rick Perry, the governor of Texas and that would be followed by a flood of endorsements from across the country by both liberals and conservatives.

Burbank, Ca:

McCain and Rudy’s planes arrived at the same airport at the same time but they did not meet at the airport. Both left separately to head to the Ronald Reagan Library for the final debate before the super Tuesday 22-state vote. Shortly before the debate, Rudy endorsed McCain.

Miami, Fl: McCain Victory Party……

It’s off to California for the debate in the Reagan Library….
Giuliani will arrive non stop in California 2 or 3 hours ahead of McCain tomorrow who will stop to refuel in Tx.
Giuliani has publicly said he is going to California, but conspicuously refused to answer questions about participating in tomorrow night’s debate at the Reagan Library.
McCain had planned a news conference upon arrival in California tomorrow.
That is now being re-looked at in order to coordinate a joint appearance.
Neither campaign will confirm or deny plans for an endorsement tomorrow.
But OTHER GOP sources say it is being arranged for tomor

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

Coconut Grove, Fl:

Things just keep getting worse for Giuliani. While the Real Clear Politics poll averages for Florida show Rudy’s precipitous slide in the polls, he suffers a humiliating backhand from the Governor of Florida. Despite Rudy’s incessant courtship of Charlie Crist, and Guiliani’s embrace of Crist’s National Catastrophic Disaster Insurance Fund, Crist decided to endorse McCain. Add the nod from US senator Mel Martinez (former RNC chairman) and McCain has won more establishment support in Florida in the last 3 days than Rudy has in a month.

Read the details on Fox News Embed blog…..

Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted – so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

Mitt could be having a moment. In the first polls after South Carolina Romney was ahead. McCain got the Palmetto state bounce and inched ahead. Rudy tanked. Fred bailed -which helped Huckabee, who according to Mason Dixon could beat Rudy for third.

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

Rudy is in trouble. At every event some supporter will tell me about being worried that he’s fading. Seniors, vets, and transplants, in South Florida like McCain and Romney too. Crowd members repeatedly note Rudy’s absence from the news for the last month and lament that he did not compete with others elsewhere.

All politics is local but not always a winner. Hizzoner’s support for a National Catastrophic Insurance fund is very popular but Floridians aren’t rubes. The land of recount injunctions and Supreme court appeals is not likely to miss so blatant a pander.

In short:
Governor Charlie Crist pushed a measure through the legislature aimed at lowering skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane plagued Florida. Premiums may have stabilized but state taxpayers are now on the hook if the insurance companies can’t handle a future disaster. Crist now wants Washington to establish a $250 billion National Catastrophic Insurance fund that would ostensibly put taxpayers in all 50 states on the hook for Florida (and other states) should bailing out the insurance companies require catastrophic state tax hikes.

Rudy has signed on to it. Critics in Florida and elsewhere think its doomed as a big government risk guarantee for disaster insurance, funded by taxpayers in 50 states.

Giuliani has spent a lot of time around the I-4 corridor and his aides are talking up big crowds. That’s ironic since in big states like Florida crowd size is not really that relevant. Rally enthusiasm and attendance is a good yardstick in early retail states. Rudy did a bit of it in NH, but nothing compared to Mitt and McCain. The most stunning thing about Rudy’s support is that in Southern Florida (from Boca Raton to Miami Beach..affectionately known as the 6th buro of NY for all the Big Apple snowbirds and transplants) McCain leads by 10% in the Miami herald Poll.

Still Rudy is a respected and much loved hero. His staff is working triple time and they are crackerjack pro’s. Ever optimistic, doggedly loyal, disciplined message managers, they all hate to lose and are not familiar with it.

DO NOT BE shocked by a final Rudy surge before Tuesday.

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans? Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Anything can happen. The polls could be wrong. Romney could win Florida and tank February 5th. McCain could EASILY win Florida. Rudy could re-surge.

But if Romney pulls out a victory in Florida he will have arrived. His talking point will no longer be that he won Michigan and leads in delegates, it will be that for the first time there is a clear front-runner heading into February 5th, and he’s it.

Mitt Romney’s latest TV ad jabs at Rudy’s liberal social views and McCain’s original opposition to the Bush tax. Without naming them, Romney casts himself as most sound on Reagan coalition social and economic conservatism.

(Also see McCain’s latest ad in the post below)