When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.

Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;

1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire

2) Giuliani was leading the national polls

3) Fred Thompson held early promise.

Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.

McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.

Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.

McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.

“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.

“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain

Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.

It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.

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Mitt Romney is bouyant tonite as the last Michigan polls prepare to close at 9pm eastern time. He is even going back on the air in SC -briefly- with an ad. But Romney is really eyeing Nevada for his next win and will
spend at least Thursday and some of Friday there before the caucuses Saturday.

Check out Shushannah Walshe’s update.

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HuckaBOOM!
Comes the Revolution?
Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters.
That populism will now be expanded to emphasize fair trade, a tough but compassionate approach to illegal immigration reform, and the “fair tax” (replace income taxes with a 23% sales tax)
These will be among the things Huckabee will use to cast himself as the outsider against John McCain (ironic since McCain is often criticized as a maverick, but he was the chairman of the senate commerce cmte) and Mitt Romney who he has already cast as too rich to be able to connect with average folks.
McCain had an edge in NH against Romney, in a three way race including Huckabee, McCain may be even more strenghtened now.
Obama’s big win will inspire independents in NH…bad news for Rudy Giuliani who was counting on Indies for a respectable first primary showing.
Money matters.
Romney looks even worse having outspent Huckabee 10-1 in Iowa. Huckabee will enjoy a fundraising windfall now and the press will be huge, But Romney is a mult millionaire and willing to keep spending “for the long haul.”
Giuliani, McCain, Thompson all have cash problems. Not so Mitt.
Romney and Huckabee aides agree tonite was an anti washington message, and they note Obama’s change message is part of that.
Huckabee knows NH is far more secular than Iowa or South Carolina. Earlier this wk, Huckabee aides routinely said if they won they would next emphasize SC. That will shift now as they embrace the magnitude of tonites win and make a renewed effort in NH…
As one aide put it “this is a big wave, we can surf anywhere now.” That may be overconfident but with two debates this weekend and a record of strong debate performances, Huckabee knows a moment is at hand.

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It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

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9 days and the countdown to Iowa’s first in the nation caucuses is on.
Shifts in momentum and polls will be fast and furious.
The early states are all about expectations.
Huckabee faces high expectations, he’s under fire as long on style but short on substance and fiscal and national security conservatism. He has precious little going organizationally in subsequent states.
Romney’s year long lead in leadoff Iowa and NH is gone. He’s underfire as a wellfunded phoney and panderer who flipflopped right on social issues to run for president, and inflates his resume and experiences.
He’s attacking Huck (who’s under fire from a chorus of establishment GOPers) as weak on crime and illegal immigration in Iowa. Mitt’s slamming McCain in NH for opposing the Bush tax cuts.
McCain has surged into a first place tie with Romney in anti tax NH. But, like Huckabee, McCain has cash and organizational problems outside of NH.
Rudy Giuliani welcomed the holiday interruption of what was a VERY rough patch. He has been slipping in the polls, absent from headlines and openly admitting he will lose states and his strategy has people worried.
It is hard to explain Fred Thompson. He has a shot at third in Iowa. That could give him some steam in S.C. but his fate may hinge more on others flaming out rather than him going out and winning it.

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Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) is continuing his ruthless ad campaign against “gutless politicians,” with a new, incendiary anti-illegal immigration television spot.

Displaying graphic images of victims of gang violence, the narrator states, “Mothers killed. Children executed. The tactics of vicious Central American gangs, now on U.S. soil. Pushing drugs. Raping kids. Destroying lives. Thanks to gutless politicians who refuse to defend our borders.” The ad began running in Iowa Monday, and it may also air in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Following up on his first ad portraying a terrorist illegally entering the U.S. before detonating a bomb, Tancredo says this spot also intends to focus on the “tragic consequences of open borders and massive uncontrolled immigration.” Tancredo has made ending illegal immigration the primary issue of his run for the White House.

Despite the fact that all of the Republican front-runners have all been running to the right in vowing to end illegal immigration–an important issue for GOP primary voters–Tancredo remains in single digits in the polls and has had trouble resonating with voters. These two ads are trying to ratchet up the message: Scare ‘em into voting for you.

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