After the sweep by Obama and McCain in the Potomac Primaries the latest delegate count by Real Clear Politics shows McCain has about 3/4 of the needed delegates and Huckabee has less than one quarter.

The actual delegate count is completely vague. Each campaign on both sides counts delegates differently. The AP and various networks have differing numbers too. On the democratic side, it is clear that Obama has the lead but by how much is the subject of debate and super delegates which are available only for the democratic contest are another story entirely.

At the conclusion of his victory remarks in Alexandria, Va tonight John McCain used Barack Obama’s famous line “fired up and ready to go!” This after McCain on the Senate floor today made a show of crossing the aisle into democratic territory to shake hands, back-slap, and trade campaign trail stories with Obama!

The two mention one another almost daily now. Obama, in his victory remarks from Madison Wisconsin tonight, praised McCain’s military service even as he bashed McCain’s policies as out of date and out of touch. McCain writes off Obama and Clinton, et al, as defeatocrats.

There were a few nervous moments for McCainiacs as the Virginia returns were tabulated but otherwise it was a big night. He erases embarrassing setbacks in La. and Ks. over the weekend. He has over 800 delegates by all counts now. He is probably only 250 delegates away from clinching the nomination.

Is he impatient for Mike Huckabee to bow out? YOU BET! Huckabee’s continued presence in the race keeps alive the discussion of McCain’s weak support among strong conservatives. When Huckabee is finally gone conservative carping will further diminish for lack of a McCain alternative and the unification process will progressively accelerate. Will some conservatives NEVER back McCain? Probably. But don’t underestimate the potential for that to change. When those same conservatives are confronted with an imminent election of Obama or Clinton, they may see things differently.
Huckabee will focus on Texas and Ohio for the next few weeks. That’s going to force McCain to continue to campaign as opposed to taking a victory lap and starting the general election organizational push we described in earlier posts.

With all due respect to the spectacular campaign that McCain so understandably praises at every opportunity…McCain is the presumptive nominee now and barring a catastrophic change Huckabee is not going to win.

McCain has much work to do and for now is not yet free of the HUCK! Once again proving that the grassroots are never to be underestimated.

 McCain has to raise a ton of money, he needs a bigger team, he needs to fold the RNC into his message machine, he needs a back channel to coordiate with the White House.  He needs to get the GOP’s House and Senate campaign committees in sync.  He must wrangle the GOP special interests into some sort of a cohesive machine.  He needs an electoral college strategy, a popular vote strategy, and a long term general election plan.  He needs to start defining the opposition and chart out his positive and negative messaging  evolution through November.  He’ll need to run new ads.  He’ll need to identify his battlegrounds for the fall.  He’ll need to carefully review the calendar to see what events to use and avoid.

Some things are easily anticipated: Memorial Day, the 4th of July, Labor day, conventions, debates.

But there are other things; sheduled reports to congress from the DOD and the CIA on Iraq and the world,  economic reports from the Fed Chairman and the admin on the economy.  The budget battle will be another major issue that comes in the fall.

In the meantime McCain will continue to visit and campaign in the remaining primary states but his message will shift to general election positioning.

Mike Huckabee is likely to beat him in several more states.  But even during intermittent defeats McCain will find will opportunity to shore up his conservative credentials and start trying to define the fall race.

While Obama and Clinton battle, McCain would like to concentrate on framing democrats.  But he’ll have a second concurrent task with rallying his own party.

He will have to unite senators who have resented his maverick streak. He will have to unite house members who always resent senators.  He will not have to overcome the fact that no senator has won the WH since JFK, because his democratic rival is gonna be a Senator too.

But make no mistake, while there may not be as much intensity in plain view, behind the scenes the scramble is on.   McCain knows against democrats he now has a head start in planning for the fall…he also knows he needs every break he can get to prepare….the McCain Machine is in production

When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.

Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;

1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire

2) Giuliani was leading the national polls

3) Fred Thompson held early promise.

Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.

McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.

Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.

McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.

“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.

“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain

Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.

It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.

” I want to congratulate Governor Huckabee and his supporters on their success today. Not for the first time, he has surprised the rest of us….I salute you…And I want to congratulate Governor Romney as well on his wins today. He and I have been going at it pretty hard over the last few weeks, and he is a tough competitor….This election, like any election, is a rough and tumble business…But I have respect for people who are willing to accept the extraordinary demands, all the ups and downs, of such a tough and long contest. And Governor Romney has mine”

So said John McCain as he spoke to his supporters in Phoenix, Arizona. He arrived there earlier in the day .

He won New York, Arizona, Oklahoma, Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, California and Missouri AND won delegates in numerous other states won by Romney and Huckabee.

Huckabee swept the southern states with little organization or money. He won his home state as well as Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama, with the help of evangelical voters, after gaining a victory in the West Virginia state convention early in the day.

He made it clear he was forging ahead:

“A lot of people have been trying to say that this is a two-man race,” Huckabee said in Little Rock Tuesday night. “Well, you know what — it is, and we’re in it.”

Romney’s wins included Massachusetts, along with North Dakota and Utah, where he got strong support from his fellow Mormons. He also won the Montana caucuses, Colorado and Minnesota. He too said the race was still on.

“We’re going to go all the way to the convention. We’re going to win this thing.”

The precise delegate count won’t be completed for a few days.

The tit for tat continues:

McCain called out Romney demanding an apology to Dole. Romney’s campaign said they tried to call Bob Dole unsuccessfully.

While this dust-up continues McCain finds himself in a tighter than expected battle for some of the Super Tuesday states while taking hits for not being conservative enough….Romney could get upset by Huckabee in some southern and midwest states. Huck is doing better than expected and it could be that the Peach state ends up in the win column for him. He also won 18 delegates in West Virginia. (see earlier post)……
This Super Tuesday delegate race could go late into night. Mccain’s hoped- for blow-out may be evaporating. In California and Missouri, Romney appears to have made up some ground.
McCain looks like a smaller winner than expected and Huckabee may be splitting a big part of self described conservatives with Romney.

In West Va, a state that Romney was confident he had locked up, Huckabee bested Romney with a little help from his friend, McCain and his delegates…..The Romney campaign was quick to react issuing the following statement;

Romney has had organization, paid staff and volunteers in West Va for months……neither McCain nor Huckabee organized this 18 delegate state convention state..
Romney was confident of a win there and looked forward to announcing another gold early afternoon during the peak of voting on Super Tuesday.
In the first round of votes, Mitt led, followed by Huck and third, McCain. Because of the state convention rules of W.VA a second round of votes quickly followed and McCain’s delegates threw their support to Huck and he instantly won this “winner take all” state.
WV McCain delegate John Vuolo says that former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer approached him and other McCain supporters in person at the WV convention and told them he (Roemer) had spoken to McCain and the best thing to do at this point was to support Huckabee in the hope that Huck could beat Romney there.

UPDATE:

The McCain campaign put out a response to Romney’s comments saying:

“Gov Romney’s attack on Bob Dole is disgraceful, and Governor Romney should apologize. Bob Dole is a war hero who has spent his life in service to this nation and nobody has worked harder to build the Republican Party. Bob Dole deserves the respect of every American and certainly every Republican.”

McCain was in the clear lead already in New York, but it never hurts to get one more endorsement and he got it this morning from the Former governor of New York, George Pataki.

McCain 55.2%, Romney 23.8%, Huckabee 7.6% Paul 4.%

Click here to see what the Governor had to say:

But as McCain was receiving the Gov’s endorsement, Mitt was on Fox and Friends comparing McCain’s bid for the White House to Bob Dole’s unsuccessful candidacy against Bill Clinton in 1996. The former Senator Dole yesterday sent a letter to Rush Limbaugh telling him to quit his attacks on McCain. He wrote:

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination will need your enthusiastic support. Two terms for the Clintons are enough.”

Mitt seized the opportunity to respond to the letter. He said this morning on “Fox & Friends” that there were similarities between Dole, the oldest candidate to run prior to John McCain.

“Well, it’s probably the last person I would have wanted write a letter for me,” Romney said. “I think there are a lot of folks who tend to think that maybe John McCain’s race is a bit like Bob Dole’s race. That it’s the guy who’s next in line, the inevitable choice.”

Click here to watch the full interview:

CPAC showdown?
Huckabee and Romney supporters hope to turn the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC this week into an anti-McCain fest.
Mitt, Huck and McCain are all slated to speak and if McCain does not all but lock it up Super Tuesday, CPAC provides his rivals with a great chance to again argue that McCain is not reliably or sufficiently conservative enough to lead the GOP.
Also: watch for the anti-McCain whisper campaign about ethics.
The Az Sen and former Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee faces no allegations, investigations or charges, but recently acknowledged hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid reports in the NYT’s of ethics concerns swirling around McCain.

Marina Del Ray, CA:

Marina Del Ray, CA

Two things matter; whether the 22 states voting tomorrow are “winner take all” AND whether their primary is open or closed.

Ten of the delegate-rich states including New York are “winner take all.” California and New York are two states that hold closed primaries. No independents, only registered Republicans in those closed primaries will be putting their ballots in the box for McCain, Romney or Huckabee. This should benefit Mitt since conservative Republicans view McCain with suspicion.

California with 173 delegates is a proportional state with a closed primary. McCain was leading but Mitt has closed the gap so he added a quick last minute campaign stop there. Even coming in second, he could gain a sizable number of delegates.

New York with it’s 101 delegates is a winner take all and closed primary and McCain is the clear favorite there.

The Bay state with 43 is heavily favored for Mitt even though McCain staked a claim there while watching the Giants best the Patriots last night.

In many southern states Huckabee is competing within the margin of error, including Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama. His staying in the race peels votes from Romney and has led to a sharp back and forth between the two with Mitt calling it “vote stealing” and Huckabee accusing Mitt of trying to suppress the vote. Romney seems to be gaining momentum in some of those southern states.

McCain is at a clear advantage in delegate count but Romney numbers have tightened in some of the latest polls following attacks by Romney accusing McCain of not being sufficiently conservative enough.

36 hours until polls close and even then it may be hours later before the final delegate totals are in.