Sen. John McCain raised more than $15 million in March for his presidential campaign, more than any month since he started running. It’s way short of his democratic rivals.

He is returning $3 million in donations given for the General election but contributors are being asked to resend the money to his legal fund (see “McCain and the Money” April 4th post). A source says the money was raised primarily from large donors but he did receive $3.2 million from internet and small donations.

Obama raised $40 million for his primary race in March, the majority of which came from small donors. Clinton raised $20 million.

Taken together various steps and utterances from McCain insiders over the last few weeks make it clear he intends to accept taxpayer funded matching funds for the general election.

The FEC check will be about 85 million dollars.

Barack Obama has raised 95 million dollars in the last 2 mos…McCain’s response? Get ready to accept public financing for the general and blast any democrat that doesn’t do the same as a hypocrit. Remember: Obama and McCain had the political equivalent of a handshake deal last year on this.

The MAC Camp has sent letters to thousands of donors and intends to RETURN about 3 million dollars in contributions made for the general election. The campaign is asking donors to SEND THE BUCKS BACK to McCain’s GLAC fund …a cool insider acronym for the legal and accounting expenses coffer which is actually tallied separately by the FEC.

The problem of course is that the general election matching fund, which is awarded to each candidate after their convention, is likely to be about 75-85 million dollars. The Dems convene in Denver 8/25-8/28. The GOP gather in St. Paul on 9/1. 85 million for each candidate to campaign the remaining two months to election day would seem plenty…but if you could bank twice that in advance would you disarm voluntarily?

Obama has a choice. McCain is preparing as though he does not.

Sorry for the brief  hiatus…Camerons Corner is back in full swing

Very quietly and very delicately the Obama and Clinton campaigns have begun back channel communications to find a common ground that can break the stalemate over Florida and Michigan.

Discussions are in very early stages with more expected over the weekend. The players at the national and state parties (as well as in the state governments) understand that any fix will have to be acceptable to both candidates.

The governors, lawmakers and political community in both states (and nationally) are working on various possible fixes, but this is an attempt BY THE CAMPAIGNS to stakeout what both would find acceptable, in order to give the states a target to work toward.

According to insiders the basic requirements of both campaigns could be met with “firehouse primaries in both states, with mail-in ballots for those who can’t make it.”

A “firehouse primary” involves fewer voting places at regional locations. Such an scenario would dramatically reduce costs.
A “Do-Over” of Florida’s primary would cost 20 million dollars, that is considered prohibitive.

Though Michigan’s nominating contests are called caucuses, as a matter of practice it is a ballot like a primary not a caucus like the meetings that take place in Iowa or Texas.

Insiders estimate that “fire house primaries in both states, with mail-in ballots for those who can’t make it” would cost about $10 million dollars for both states. Both campaigns could easily raise the money and keep it separate from regular campaign coffers.

The state political parties may also raise the money for party building. The national parties could also kick in money for party building as well. This would mean that the new votes would be paid for by the parties and the campaigns, not taxpayers.

Both campaigns agree it is unacceptable to NOT seat the Fla and Michigan delegates, recognizing that they are too influential in the general election and can’t be disenfranchised.

The March 4th primaries could put McCain over the top for the GOP nomination and Huckabee officially in second place for the 2008 GOP race.

These are HISTORIC achievements that to many seemed unimaginable last year. This VLOG and the FNC political unit however never once wrote off McCain last year when others did.

And while Huckabee went virtually unnoticed until last years Ames strawpoll, we identified him in January of 2007 as the darkhorse most likely to surprise.

Now McCain has 1014 delegates. He needs 177 to reach the needed 1191.

Huckabee has won 257 delegates. He needs 24 to best Mitt Romney who won 280.

McCain is expected to take VT and RI outright but neither Texas nor Ohio are winner take all - they are awarded proportionally by state senate and congressional district respectively. If Huckabee wins any combination of 8 Texas state senate or Ohio congressional districts he will win 24 delegates and thus go ahead of Romney. Undisputed 2nd place.

Huckabee will make no definitive statements Tuesday night about the future of his campaign. But look for news on Thursday when he returns to Little Rock. For weeks the Huckabee campaign has been doing an unofficial victory lap. The governor and his staff are delighted by his success and acknowledged status as a conservative leader who will now be well positioned to run again in the future.

Camp Huck is steering people away from veep speculation. The governor doesn’t expect an offer and insiders say if it came he should reject it. They think Huckabee’s future prospects are stronger making his own way rather than playing #2 to McCain.

McCain must first co-opt the RNC, and its a long complex process to take over the sprawling Bush admin national party apparatus. They are for now merely studying how past VP’s have been chosen and discussing how to come up with their own process.

Republicans all over the country are emailing and calling the campaign with their runningmate advice. While Huckabee would have us believe he is disinterested for now, that has never been the case for Mitt Romney.

Though Romney and McCain fought tooth and nail and grew legitimately angry with one another for exaggerated charges and counter charges throughout their year long battle, alot of republican grey beards think they make a good team on paper…..

SHOW ME STATE IS A 3 MAN SHOWDOWN, TENNESSEE IS A TOSSUP TOO, MCCAIN LOOKS FOR ALABAMA GETAWAY.

• Missouri: McCain 32% Huckabee 29% Romney 28%
• Tennessee: McCain 32% Romney 29% Huckabee 23%
• Alabama: McCain 38% Huckabee 30%

Missouri is winner take all with 58 delegates. The latest ARG polls out today shows Huckabee leading 31-29 over McCain with Romney at 27.

McCain appears to have a hammer lock on NY, NJ, Ct, DE, and Az,,,for a total of 251 delegates to start. He leads in Delaware 41-35 over Romney in the latest ARG poll.

Romney has Utah in hand where there is a large Mormon population and 36 winner take all delegates. Massachusetts has 43 delegates and Romney has a big lead but it is not winner take all and McCain is playing to win there. Romney is also making a move on West Virginia’s 18 winner take all delegates, and competing in Co., Mn., Mt., and N.D.
Mike Huckabee leads the RCP average of polls in Georgia based on a big bump in a recent Insider Advantage survey. Huck trailed in two earlier polls, Georgia has 72 non-winner take all delegates. Arkansas should be a gimmee for Huck with its 34 proportionately awarded delegates.

There is also a poll from WSMV-TV that shows Huckabee leading in Tennessee 24-23 over McCain.

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

3 to 6 inches of snow fell around Detroit overnight.
GOP officials say light turnout so far is in keeping with forecasts of about a million votes cast today in the republican primary.
In 2000 when John McCain won, 1.3 million votes were cast- 17 percent of McCain’s votes were from indies and dems.
Light turnout and weather this time could mean fewer non-GOP votes. That could be good news for Romney.
If polls are to be believed ALL the trend lines are in Romney’s direction…albeit within the margin of error.
Romney went optimistic about Michigan manufacturing job losses saying he’ll lead the recovery. Initially McCain said those jobs are not coming back, he cast Romney as pandering. It wasn’t until a couple days ago that McCain too started cheering the recovery. If Romney wins, jobs and optimism V Realism V pessimism may be seen as the defining issues.

If Romney wins, the race in many ways, will be back to the beginning.

Thinkabout it; a Romney win evens the playing field. Huck, Mac and Mitt each have a “W” going forward.

If McCain wins we’ll have an indisputable frontrunner.
AGAIN…Mitt needs Michigan…McCain needs SC.
Tactically the best way to campaign in SC is to win MI.</

A McCain win slingshots him into SC where he has basically everything on the line.
As the most experienced ’security candidate” if McCain can’t win in SC where the military population is the nations highest per capita,,where (besides NH and AZ) might he win?
Conversely if Mitt can’t win in his home state, well, uh, what then?

He wins and goes on. He loses…and goes on? Could be, but bet nothing. Will the former Massachusetts Governor find that the Wolverine state -where he was born- is his Bunker Hill?

VIDEO: Mitt tours Michigan Statehouse:
http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/112-post-tour.mov

Surprise!! the polls are all over the place and can’t be trusted. Check out the regional breakdown and composition of the samples in these polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Since 2000 some in NH have continued to call John McCain “President of New Hampshire.”

As FNC Chief White House correspondent in the Spring of 2006 I saw Senior McCainiacs visit the White House more than once - and they didn’t like me knowing they were there. Before I gave up the WH gig to return to the trail for this very race, Senior White House officials often uttered the words:

“It’s McCain’s turn.”

Of course he hired several top Bushies, rehired his 2000 team, added a few new folks and ran up huge bills. His organization was so sprawling it collapsed under its own weight - then imploded. He was written off. Wholesale firings and resignations before August were designed to get him back on track after Labor Day. The Petraeus report came out. So did Fred Thompson, occasionally. Huckabee went largely unnoticed in NH. So, when Thompson fizzled everywhere but South Carolina, NH became a 2 man race: Mitt v McCain.

Thompson’s absence in Iowa, and becuz McCain basically skipped it, turned Iowa into a Mitt v Huckabee battle. It is a cardinal rule in first-in-the-nation politics, NEVER be in first place in the final two months, attacks in the last month can ruin you. Mitt was further hampered by the need to battle on two fronts. McCain got a pass in Iowa’s expectations game. Huck gets a pass in NH. Mitt went to war in both places at once.

With most establishment republicans skeptical of Huckabee’s chances beyond South Carolina, many are now wrestling with the possibility that perhaps it is “McCain’s Turn.”

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