Mitt Romney scored spectacular numbers in Frank Luntz’s focus groups. (See previous post, The Forum is Over, Who Won?) He withstood withering condescension from his rivals, tough questions from Chris Wallace, all after a full campaign day. Romney has campaigned harder and for longer than all of them. Romney was seated in the middle, and he was in the middle of every exchange.

He stuck to his guns and fired several good shots of his own. He let almost no charge go un-rebutted and pivoted to offense effectively on many. As far as debating tactics, poise and execution are concerned he won.

That said, he has a heckuva job ahead. The Union leader has been pounding Romney. Huckabee’s win and attacks on Romney in Iowa left alot of bruises. Romney’s strategy always included wins in Iowa and or New Hampshire – and now he’s running 2nd to the McComeback Kid, MAC IS BACK! John McCain

Could tonight turn the corner?

(more…)

HuckaBOOM!
Comes the Revolution?
Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters.
That populism will now be expanded to emphasize fair trade, a tough but compassionate approach to illegal immigration reform, and the “fair tax” (replace income taxes with a 23% sales tax)
These will be among the things Huckabee will use to cast himself as the outsider against John McCain (ironic since McCain is often criticized as a maverick, but he was the chairman of the senate commerce cmte) and Mitt Romney who he has already cast as too rich to be able to connect with average folks.
McCain had an edge in NH against Romney, in a three way race including Huckabee, McCain may be even more strenghtened now.
Obama’s big win will inspire independents in NH…bad news for Rudy Giuliani who was counting on Indies for a respectable first primary showing.
Money matters.
Romney looks even worse having outspent Huckabee 10-1 in Iowa. Huckabee will enjoy a fundraising windfall now and the press will be huge, But Romney is a mult millionaire and willing to keep spending “for the long haul.”
Giuliani, McCain, Thompson all have cash problems. Not so Mitt.
Romney and Huckabee aides agree tonite was an anti washington message, and they note Obama’s change message is part of that.
Huckabee knows NH is far more secular than Iowa or South Carolina. Earlier this wk, Huckabee aides routinely said if they won they would next emphasize SC. That will shift now as they embrace the magnitude of tonites win and make a renewed effort in NH…
As one aide put it “this is a big wave, we can surf anywhere now.” That may be overconfident but with two debates this weekend and a record of strong debate performances, Huckabee knows a moment is at hand.

Paraleipsis…..look it up:)

FOX News was the first to obtain a copy of the whole ad:

Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be talking about this story right up until they vote. They are sophisticated and saturated by election news and devour this type of oddity like a prime rib at Des Moines’ Iowa Beef Steakhouse. Say what you will, but know this strange move WILL get attention.

The back story:

On Saturday afternoon Huckabee cleared most of his Sunday schedule and aides refused to explain. It was a mysterious, suspicious move but aides refused to confirm it was to cut new ads. Early Sunday morning after one live shot pointing out that taking the last Sunday off before caucus without explanation would irk Iowa caucus goers, Huckabee aides immediately copped to a day in the studio for new ads.

They were to be tough “rebuttal ads.” The final DVD’s were printed for shipment to Iowa TV stations at 1:00am Monday morning. There was dissent in Huckworld. Some wanted to attack. Others didn’t.

What many Hucksters envisioned was an ad denouncing Romney’s attacks but rather than returning in kind, pledging more positivity. What came out was a straight up hit on Romney, and many instantly thought it was too much, mean. Like Romney.

To be fair some of Huckabee’s attacks have been far more personal than Mitts of late. Huck admits he was in to negativity himself on the stump recently.

Family members reminded Huck he had never run an ad like that in Arkansas. Iowa aides warned it would turn people off. Huck made the call. BUT a deal was struck with those favoring the attack: run it in the news conference – proving it’s existence, and delivering the message.

Monday morning I was triple tipped. First: it was back off the negative counter attack reporting, its not happening. Then I was re-tipped: Romney’s gonna be stunned, its tough. Then re-re-tipped: some people think its a bad idea.

An hour later the governor told a packed news conference he was halting the ad, but would play it for us. Reporters burst into unapologetic guffaws of laughter – skepticism code: day-glow red blinking neon! The idea that at this late date, having called Romney dishonest, disingenuous, ruthless, and various other goodies, he would suddenly swear off negative campaigning was too much for most.

Then the debut of the ad went haywire. They hit play, video rolled with no sound – it was recording in the cameras but there was silence in the room for reporters, abort.

Restart: audio in the room but not to the cameras, rewind. The third do over had no audio to the room or the cameras…The tiny speakers on the laptop played for those of us within a few feet. NOBODY RECORDED A USEABLE VERSION OF THE AD AT THE NEWS CONFERENCE.

Huck said they were not distributing it but told reporters repeatedly it had been sent to TV stations around Iowa to run at noon.

So now Huck is embarrassed (IS HE?) that the ad he never wanted you to see (and said would only be shown in that news conference room) is all over the place. (see the front page of Foxnews.com.)

Some will say they planned it this way: to look like he’s taking the high road by pulling the spot, while getting more news coverage for the attack message than he could ever afford to buy.
But they also knew it would look bad to reverse course…indecisive-disarray? Unpredictable under pressure?

If he loses this will be one of many causes. If he wins this will be a defining moment written about for years. With the exception of the revered Des Moines Register poll Huck was trending down and Mitt trending up for several days.

The campaign knew they had to do something dramatic to stop the slide and change the dynamics. They knew it had to be good to break through on New Years eve. Winning campaigns always take risks and always need luck. They rolled the dice.

This was certainly different and if Huckabee pulls out the caucus win, his aides all say this will be a big part of the reason why. Huckaboom? Huckabust? Less than a hundred hours to find out.

THE NUMBERS!

Iowa has STUNNING influence BUT breathtakingly LOW TURNOUT!!

The first in the nation state has three mllion ppl and 2 million registered voters.

(D-619K, R-595K I- 766K)

How many are expected to take advantage of Iowa’s unique opportunity to set the presidential campaigns’ trajectory???
…a paltry 225 thousand.

THAT MAY PROVE GENEROUS!!

Optimistic Republican Party turnout models are for 85 to 95 thousand caucus goers.

That means when polls show Huckabee and Romney within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 4,750 votes plus AND/OR minus…in otherwords at most 9500 caucus goers. That’s a paper thin difference,

Democratic party officials are loathe to estimate but based on 2004 they don’t dispute a guess at 125 thousand.

That means when polls show Clinton and Obama are within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 6,250 votes plus
AND/OR minus….in other words at most 12,500 caucus goers.
That too is a paper thin difference.

To reiterate; out of 3 million ppl…approximately 220 thousand are expected to vote…that’s 7.3%
of the population or 1 out of 15 people.

Among registered voters it’s 11% or basically 1 in 10 registered voters.

In Iowa’s defense, the caucus is a burden to voters and that means those who turnout are deeply motivated and informed.
That is why the campaigns call it an organizational test. Getting out your vote is like finding needles in Iowa’s frozen haystacks.
Iowa is also an expectations game…in recent days the toss up nature of the race means expectations for many candidates are high..and the stakes even higher.

It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

From C Cameron
Republican Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani is feeling better, up and about, joking around and awaiting test results at the Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis tonight. Katie Levinson at the hospital tonight at 2:03 eastern time says they are just awaiting test results and may leave tonight.

He had a headache and felt poorly. On the plane out of Chesterfield earlier tonight he decided to turn around and get to a hospital. The plane was out of commission all day and rather than fly to events, Giuliani traveled across Missouri by motorcade to three fundraisers and two additional campaign events.

He has no history of such things. Levinson called Giuliani a vigorous, energetic campaigner who has been working hard and is known for working harder than the other candidates.

ST. LOUIS – Rudy Giuliani Communications Director Katie Levinson released the following statement this morning:
Earlier today, Mayor Giuliani experienced flu-like symptoms campaigning in Missouri. The symptoms worsened as the day wore on and shortly after taking off from Chesterfield, Missouri for New York the Mayor became uncomfortable enough that our plane returned to the airport in Chesterfield. To be on the safe side, the Mayor consulted with his personal physician in New York and made the decision to go to the Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis for routine tests.

“The Mayor will spend the night in St. Louis and we will provide another update in the morning.”

Mitt’s first attack ad against Huck was on illegal immigration. In this 2nd blast the former governor of Massachusetts blasts the former governor of Arkansas for being soft on meth ( a big deal in the mid west) and weak on crime in general

Mitt gets tough on Huckabee.

You can also find it on youtube!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQVOtTvkus

Watch establishment conservatives become more vocal in their criticism of Huckabee in coming days. Romney is leading the attack on Hucks record on crime, immigration, taxes, spending even national security. Furthermore Huckabee’s criticism of the Bush administration in Foreign Affairs Magazine for being “arrogant” and having a “bunker mentality” has NOT gone unnoticed at the White House.

GOP greybeards in Washington are becoming a increasingly worried that after getting drubbed in the 2006 mid terms (for what democrats dubbed “a republican culture of corruption”) the last thing the GOP needs is to nominate Huckabee who has a history of being fined and reprimaded for ethical lapses as Ark Governor.

In Florida on Sunday following the univision debate I interviewed the governor. Afterward he and his staffers heavily advertised a big news making endorsement Friday in NH.

It’s a national figure. They were very excited. They have been telling reporters ever since so its likely to leak…interesting way and time to raise expectations.

After Mitt’s immigration ad hitting Huck, the new Iowa frontrunners aides couldn’t wait to roll out the endorsement by the founder of the Minutemen. But the organization went out of it’s way to criticize Huckabee’s illegal immigration record and say the founder was not speaking for the group.

No question Chuck Norris and Rick Flair brought Huck’s name ID up…Oprah didn’t hurt Obama.

It’s rally and get out the vote time so anything that draws cameras is a boon. Todays Huck backer will be unveiled in Concord NH.

IF THE REPUBLICANS COULDN’T DISCUSS ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND IRAQ…WILL THE DEMS BE DENIED THE CHANCE TO TALK ABOUT JUDGMENT, EXPERIENCE AND CREDIBILITY???

For the first time in the 2008 presidential primary, yesterday, GOP presidential contender, Alan Keyes was on the stage with all the other GOP candidates. But today, at the democratic debate, there will be two fewer at the podiums. Mike Gravel and Dennis Kuchinich are not allowed to participate! What gives?

1. Candidates must have filed an FEC Form F-2 Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, and

2. Candidates must have publicly announced an intention to run for the nomination of the Republican or the Democratic Party for President of the United States, and

3. Candidates must have had a campaign office inside the State of Iowa as of October 1, 2007, and

4. Candidates must have employed at least one paid campaign staff representative to perform full-time campaign duties in the State of Iowa on behalf of the candidate since at least October 1, 2007, and

5. Candidates must have had at least a 1% support showing in the Des Moines Register October, 2007 Iowa Poll.

A Des Moines Register insider says Alan Keyes told them before the Oct 1st qualification deadline he had a staffer and office.

The Iowa republican party which tracks candidate organization meticulously says it has no record of Keyes having had any campaign headquarters or staff at all this year.

The Keye’s web page says his campaign headquarters is in Utah. There is no contact info for anyone in any other state.

The phone number goes to an answering machine and provides no other information

As for choice of moderator Register officials say it is a long tradition that the papers’ managing editor do the job.

We told you so. To be fair, so did a lot of political reporters. This was always gonna be a photo finish -on BOTH sides. Much will happen in the next 12 DAYS before Christmas. Much will happen in the 9 days after that- in the few days before Iowa’s caucuses (because of the holidays candidates have already begun their Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts and their closing arguments early.)

But COME ON! Junkies knew it was gonna be an unpredictable sprint and finish, so stop acting so shocked!done