With a win in Nevada under his belt Mitt Romney now hopes to eliminate Fred Thompson.
Thompson needs to make third and though purely anecdotal, my SC precinct sources are seeing more Mittites than Fredheads…4th could be devastating for Thompson.  Third would be a victory for Romney.

Turnout is steady in the low country and lighter in the upstate.

South Carolina Republican Party officials expect half a million votes will be cast provided the weather isn’t too lousy in the upstate.

Both Mike Huckabee and John McCain SHOULD win South Carolina. The latest American Research Group Poll taken 1/17-1/18 shows:

Huckabee 33% McCain 26% Thompson 21% Romney 9% undecided 4%

This is a huge jump for Huckabee who was in second place two days ago. AND MOST pollsters and state political pros will tell you that about 1 in 5 are undecided. I’ve found undecideds at both Huckabee and McCain events without really even trying. The McCain camp said it was looking at survey data suggesting they were breaking evenly with Huckabee among undecideds. But its tough for pollsters to catch which way undecideds break when it happens on the final day. Though I suspect the gap is not a big as what ARG has pickedup, I think my old pal pollster Dick Bennett may have found on the phone what is visible on the ground, Huckabee has buzz and his supporters have more intensity than McCain.

Huckabee and McCain teams both say it’s close. Huck’s camp is more confident- But McCainiacs say they believe McCain will withstand an acknowledged late Huck surge.

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3 to 6 inches of snow fell around Detroit overnight.
GOP officials say light turnout so far is in keeping with forecasts of about a million votes cast today in the republican primary.
In 2000 when John McCain won, 1.3 million votes were cast- 17 percent of McCain’s votes were from indies and dems.
Light turnout and weather this time could mean fewer non-GOP votes. That could be good news for Romney.
If polls are to be believed ALL the trend lines are in Romney’s direction…albeit within the margin of error.
Romney went optimistic about Michigan manufacturing job losses saying he’ll lead the recovery. Initially McCain said those jobs are not coming back, he cast Romney as pandering. It wasn’t until a couple days ago that McCain too started cheering the recovery. If Romney wins, jobs and optimism V Realism V pessimism may be seen as the defining issues.

If Romney wins, the race in many ways, will be back to the beginning.

Thinkabout it; a Romney win evens the playing field. Huck, Mac and Mitt each have a “W” going forward.

If McCain wins we’ll have an indisputable frontrunner.
AGAIN…Mitt needs Michigan…McCain needs SC.
Tactically the best way to campaign in SC is to win MI.</

A McCain win slingshots him into SC where he has basically everything on the line.
As the most experienced ’security candidate” if McCain can’t win in SC where the military population is the nations highest per capita,,where (besides NH and AZ) might he win?
Conversely if Mitt can’t win in his home state, well, uh, what then?

Mayoral Money woes. The polls show John McCain breathing down Rudy’s neck, even in Florida. We have reported here for weeks that Hizzzoner was having cash problems. He’s been canceling ad buys in early states and in December redoubled fund raising efforts. There’s a great old political axiom that goes: “if you are explaining you are losing…”

VIEW RUDY’S RESPONSE AT THE MEDIA AVAIL:

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Since 2000 some in NH have continued to call John McCain “President of New Hampshire.”

As FNC Chief White House correspondent in the Spring of 2006 I saw Senior McCainiacs visit the White House more than once - and they didn’t like me knowing they were there. Before I gave up the WH gig to return to the trail for this very race, Senior White House officials often uttered the words:

“It’s McCain’s turn.”

Of course he hired several top Bushies, rehired his 2000 team, added a few new folks and ran up huge bills. His organization was so sprawling it collapsed under its own weight - then imploded. He was written off. Wholesale firings and resignations before August were designed to get him back on track after Labor Day. The Petraeus report came out. So did Fred Thompson, occasionally. Huckabee went largely unnoticed in NH. So, when Thompson fizzled everywhere but South Carolina, NH became a 2 man race: Mitt v McCain.

Thompson’s absence in Iowa, and becuz McCain basically skipped it, turned Iowa into a Mitt v Huckabee battle. It is a cardinal rule in first-in-the-nation politics, NEVER be in first place in the final two months, attacks in the last month can ruin you. Mitt was further hampered by the need to battle on two fronts. McCain got a pass in Iowa’s expectations game. Huck gets a pass in NH. Mitt went to war in both places at once.

With most establishment republicans skeptical of Huckabee’s chances beyond South Carolina, many are now wrestling with the possibility that perhaps it is “McCain’s Turn.”

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Paraleipsis…..look it up:)

FOX News was the first to obtain a copy of the whole ad:

Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be talking about this story right up until they vote. They are sophisticated and saturated by election news and devour this type of oddity like a prime rib at Des Moines’ Iowa Beef Steakhouse. Say what you will, but know this strange move WILL get attention.

The back story:

On Saturday afternoon Huckabee cleared most of his Sunday schedule and aides refused to explain. It was a mysterious, suspicious move but aides refused to confirm it was to cut new ads. Early Sunday morning after one live shot pointing out that taking the last Sunday off before caucus without explanation would irk Iowa caucus goers, Huckabee aides immediately copped to a day in the studio for new ads.

They were to be tough “rebuttal ads.” The final DVD’s were printed for shipment to Iowa TV stations at 1:00am Monday morning. There was dissent in Huckworld. Some wanted to attack. Others didn’t.

What many Hucksters envisioned was an ad denouncing Romney’s attacks but rather than returning in kind, pledging more positivity. What came out was a straight up hit on Romney, and many instantly thought it was too much, mean. Like Romney.

To be fair some of Huckabee’s attacks have been far more personal than Mitts of late. Huck admits he was in to negativity himself on the stump recently.

Family members reminded Huck he had never run an ad like that in Arkansas. Iowa aides warned it would turn people off. Huck made the call. BUT a deal was struck with those favoring the attack: run it in the news conference - proving it’s existence, and delivering the message.

Monday morning I was triple tipped. First: it was back off the negative counter attack reporting, its not happening. Then I was re-tipped: Romney’s gonna be stunned, its tough. Then re-re-tipped: some people think its a bad idea.

An hour later the governor told a packed news conference he was halting the ad, but would play it for us. Reporters burst into unapologetic guffaws of laughter - skepticism code: day-glow red blinking neon! The idea that at this late date, having called Romney dishonest, disingenuous, ruthless, and various other goodies, he would suddenly swear off negative campaigning was too much for most.

Then the debut of the ad went haywire. They hit play, video rolled with no sound - it was recording in the cameras but there was silence in the room for reporters, abort.

Restart: audio in the room but not to the cameras, rewind. The third do over had no audio to the room or the cameras…The tiny speakers on the laptop played for those of us within a few feet. NOBODY RECORDED A USEABLE VERSION OF THE AD AT THE NEWS CONFERENCE.

Huck said they were not distributing it but told reporters repeatedly it had been sent to TV stations around Iowa to run at noon.

So now Huck is embarrassed (IS HE?) that the ad he never wanted you to see (and said would only be shown in that news conference room) is all over the place. (see the front page of Foxnews.com.)

Some will say they planned it this way: to look like he’s taking the high road by pulling the spot, while getting more news coverage for the attack message than he could ever afford to buy.
But they also knew it would look bad to reverse course…indecisive-disarray? Unpredictable under pressure?

If he loses this will be one of many causes. If he wins this will be a defining moment written about for years. With the exception of the revered Des Moines Register poll Huck was trending down and Mitt trending up for several days.

The campaign knew they had to do something dramatic to stop the slide and change the dynamics. They knew it had to be good to break through on New Years eve. Winning campaigns always take risks and always need luck. They rolled the dice.

This was certainly different and if Huckabee pulls out the caucus win, his aides all say this will be a big part of the reason why. Huckaboom? Huckabust? Less than a hundred hours to find out.

THE NUMBERS!

Iowa has STUNNING influence BUT breathtakingly LOW TURNOUT!!

The first in the nation state has three mllion ppl and 2 million registered voters.

(D-619K, R-595K I- 766K)

How many are expected to take advantage of Iowa’s unique opportunity to set the presidential campaigns’ trajectory???
…a paltry 225 thousand.

THAT MAY PROVE GENEROUS!!

Optimistic Republican Party turnout models are for 85 to 95 thousand caucus goers.

That means when polls show Huckabee and Romney within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 4,750 votes plus AND/OR minus…in otherwords at most 9500 caucus goers. That’s a paper thin difference,

Democratic party officials are loathe to estimate but based on 2004 they don’t dispute a guess at 125 thousand.

That means when polls show Clinton and Obama are within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 6,250 votes plus
AND/OR minus….in other words at most 12,500 caucus goers.
That too is a paper thin difference.

To reiterate; out of 3 million ppl…approximately 220 thousand are expected to vote…that’s 7.3%
of the population or 1 out of 15 people.

Among registered voters it’s 11% or basically 1 in 10 registered voters.

In Iowa’s defense, the caucus is a burden to voters and that means those who turnout are deeply motivated and informed.
That is why the campaigns call it an organizational test. Getting out your vote is like finding needles in Iowa’s frozen haystacks.
Iowa is also an expectations game…in recent days the toss up nature of the race means expectations for many candidates are high..and the stakes even higher.

It’s a whole new race.

It was not that long ago that republicans were arguing about pardons and democrats were debating statements made in kindergarten.  And yes polls still suggest that republicans are seen as more serious about security than republicans

Cynthia McKinney is running for President! The former 6 term Georgia democratic congresswoman is famous for hitting a capitol hill police officer and questioning whether President Bush knew about the 9-11 attacks in advance.

Now she lives in San Francisco and is a GREEN PARTY member.McKinney has been making speeches and mulling a bid for some time.

This week she posted a 5 minute web video on runcynthiarun.org in which she says “The Democrats are no different than their Republican counterparts, eat out of the hands of corrupt lobbyists and feed at the same corporate trough.  I am proud to say that the Green Party is my new political home,”

After 5 terms in office McKinney was ousted in 2002 following the firestorm over the the 9-11\Bush questions. Her father suggested she lost in 2002 because of “Jews.” She won her seat back in 2004, then slugged the capitol cop and lost it permanently in 2006.

McKinney joins at least six other Green Party candidates (including Ralph Nader) planning to run for president. McKinney’s web page solicits donations and discusses being on ballots in several February 5th primary states and collecting petitions for ballot access in several big states in next years general election. The Green Party holds its convention in Chicago next July

From C Cameron
Republican Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani is feeling better, up and about, joking around and awaiting test results at the Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis tonight. Katie Levinson at the hospital tonight at 2:03 eastern time says they are just awaiting test results and may leave tonight.

He had a headache and felt poorly. On the plane out of Chesterfield earlier tonight he decided to turn around and get to a hospital. The plane was out of commission all day and rather than fly to events, Giuliani traveled across Missouri by motorcade to three fundraisers and two additional campaign events.

He has no history of such things. Levinson called Giuliani a vigorous, energetic campaigner who has been working hard and is known for working harder than the other candidates.

ST. LOUIS - Rudy Giuliani Communications Director Katie Levinson released the following statement this morning:
Earlier today, Mayor Giuliani experienced flu-like symptoms campaigning in Missouri. The symptoms worsened as the day wore on and shortly after taking off from Chesterfield, Missouri for New York the Mayor became uncomfortable enough that our plane returned to the airport in Chesterfield. To be on the safe side, the Mayor consulted with his personal physician in New York and made the decision to go to the Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis for routine tests.

“The Mayor will spend the night in St. Louis and we will provide another update in the morning.”