It’s primary night in Kentucky and Oregon, Major reports on the expected outcome.  Carl is in Florida where McCain continued to charge the Democratic frontrunner is weak on foreign policy.

from www.hulu.com posted with vodpod

Big deal! Winner take all….57 delegate votes….93 delegates to Romney’s 59!

Delegate Count

Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

Prepare for a late night in Florida. Romney and McCain are splitting within the margin of error. In the final hours of campaigning, often at polling stations, McCain took one final swipe at Romney, blaming him for the negative campaigning.

Hear what he says as reported by Shus Walshe, our intrepid Romney embed producer

Romney got in a gentle jab, “One of the candidates running out there said the economy is not his strong suit. Well, it’s my strong suit!” He also reminded supporters at his only event of the day, almost as an afterthought, to get out there and vote.

According to the Florida Republican Party 1.5 million republicans could turn out to vote NOT including absentee and early voters. It could take upward of half a million votes to cinch those crucial 57 electoral votes for one of the contestants.

It’s winner take all, 57 delegates! Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are battling for third.

Back and forth, back and forth in the twenty four hours before the polls close in Florida. There is only one ticket out of Florida (winner take all) and McCain and Romney are fighting hard for it. The lead seems to change in the polls by the hour.

In the latest Rasmussen poll from Sunday they are in a virtual tie!

Survey of 578 Likely GOP Voters
January 27, 2008

Today, McCain called Romney a flip-flopper and released a tough new attack on Romney in a web video.

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Mitt bit back on McCain for sponsoring liberal legislation with democrats, the McCain Feingold campaign finance reform, McCain Kennedy immigration reform and McCain Lieberman; a cap and trade carbon offset program.

Mitt is determined to bring the debate back to the economy.

Coconut Grove, Fl:

Things just keep getting worse for Giuliani. While the Real Clear Politics poll averages for Florida show Rudy’s precipitous slide in the polls, he suffers a humiliating backhand from the Governor of Florida. Despite Rudy’s incessant courtship of Charlie Crist, and Guiliani’s embrace of Crist’s National Catastrophic Disaster Insurance Fund, Crist decided to endorse McCain. Add the nod from US senator Mel Martinez (former RNC chairman) and McCain has won more establishment support in Florida in the last 3 days than Rudy has in a month.

Read the details on Fox News Embed blog…..

Coconut Grove, Fl:

Politics ain’t bean bag but a little ball is always in order. Uber producer Jake Gibson and Carl Cameron double up on 6′5″ Damien, we were undaunted by his 28 inch vertical leap…much.

Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted – so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

Mitt could be having a moment. In the first polls after South Carolina Romney was ahead. McCain got the Palmetto state bounce and inched ahead. Rudy tanked. Fred bailed -which helped Huckabee, who according to Mason Dixon could beat Rudy for third.

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

Rudy is in trouble. At every event some supporter will tell me about being worried that he’s fading. Seniors, vets, and transplants, in South Florida like McCain and Romney too. Crowd members repeatedly note Rudy’s absence from the news for the last month and lament that he did not compete with others elsewhere.

All politics is local but not always a winner. Hizzoner’s support for a National Catastrophic Insurance fund is very popular but Floridians aren’t rubes. The land of recount injunctions and Supreme court appeals is not likely to miss so blatant a pander.

In short:
Governor Charlie Crist pushed a measure through the legislature aimed at lowering skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane plagued Florida. Premiums may have stabilized but state taxpayers are now on the hook if the insurance companies can’t handle a future disaster. Crist now wants Washington to establish a $250 billion National Catastrophic Insurance fund that would ostensibly put taxpayers in all 50 states on the hook for Florida (and other states) should bailing out the insurance companies require catastrophic state tax hikes.

Rudy has signed on to it. Critics in Florida and elsewhere think its doomed as a big government risk guarantee for disaster insurance, funded by taxpayers in 50 states.

Giuliani has spent a lot of time around the I-4 corridor and his aides are talking up big crowds. That’s ironic since in big states like Florida crowd size is not really that relevant. Rally enthusiasm and attendance is a good yardstick in early retail states. Rudy did a bit of it in NH, but nothing compared to Mitt and McCain. The most stunning thing about Rudy’s support is that in Southern Florida (from Boca Raton to Miami Beach..affectionately known as the 6th buro of NY for all the Big Apple snowbirds and transplants) McCain leads by 10% in the Miami herald Poll.

Still Rudy is a respected and much loved hero. His staff is working triple time and they are crackerjack pro’s. Ever optimistic, doggedly loyal, disciplined message managers, they all hate to lose and are not familiar with it.

DO NOT BE shocked by a final Rudy surge before Tuesday.

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans? Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Anything can happen. The polls could be wrong. Romney could win Florida and tank February 5th. McCain could EASILY win Florida. Rudy could re-surge.

But if Romney pulls out a victory in Florida he will have arrived. His talking point will no longer be that he won Michigan and leads in delegates, it will be that for the first time there is a clear front-runner heading into February 5th, and he’s it.

Mitt Romney’s latest TV ad jabs at Rudy’s liberal social views and McCain’s original opposition to the Bush tax. Without naming them, Romney casts himself as most sound on Reagan coalition social and economic conservatism.

(Also see McCain’s latest ad in the post below)

McCain’s so delighted by the attention he got from the democrats in the recent debate that he is now pushing an inevitability message.   The idea is to imprint the perception that he is already a foregone conclusion and hope republicans jump on the bandwagon.  Here’s the web ad.