TEN DAYS IS A LONG TIME.

In fact there have not been ten uninterrupted campaign days in this entire campaign. The ten days before Iowa included Christmas and New Years.

Since August John McCain has been the come-from-behind-underdog. For the first time in the race he is going to get the full front-runner treatment: intense scrutiny and relentless criticism from his rivals.

Huckabee’s gracious praise for McCain in tonight’s concession speech smacked of a short list audition. He promised to remain in the nominating “process” for a long time, and said he still believes it will end “in the White House.” But there were moments when he spoke about his campaign in the past tense, and he didn’t say in what capacity he believed he would end up in Casa Blanca.

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Mitt claims the pro-growth economic message with Michigan, NH solidified Mac’s strong security message and Huck in Iowa got the jump on social and religious conservatives…3 winners with distinct messages, and with strengths and weaknesses regionally and on core GOP issues…There is no front-runner.
SC was always THE state for southerner Fred Thompson to win…failing here could eliminate him.
But McCain has long viewed SC (with a high per capita population of retired and active military) as key to his long term viability.
And because as much as 60% of the South Carolina GOP vote is evangelical Huck needs to win here too!
A 3 way do or die???
ABSOLUTELY NOT!
Now the race is about delegate counting with all the candidates planning for a long war of attrition beyond February 5th. When you look at the count and the map there is little incentive for anyone to bail out regardless of the outcome of South Carolina .

States allocating pledged delegates to date:
Iowa, Wyoming (GOP), New Hampshire, Michigan

Source: Real Clear Politics

Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)

As for Giuliani, he put all his eggs in Florida’s winner-take-all basket. There are 57 delegates to be won there.

He is tied with McCain. If McCain wins South Carolina that could propel to a win of those 57 delegates.

Skepticism over Giuliani’s finances dogged him for another day in Florida. He has spent the last few trying to reassure voters that he is not tapped out, even while some aides voluntarily give up their paychecks.

Rudy’s latest attempt to allay doubts came as he spoke to Wendell Goler aboard his campaign bus.

Click below to see Rudy explain in his own words.

http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/rudygolerstrategy.mov

Can he convince reporters, bloggers and the public that his Florida must-win strategy is working despite most of the current polls showing him lagging behind McCain in Florida?

Real Clear Politics has the numbers.

Read Mosheh Oinounou, our embed producer’s full write up on this at embeds.blogs.foxnews.com

It’s like gravity in the national polls: Mayor Giuliani has not competed aggressively in IA, NH, MI, or SC. He is no longer the national front-runner and the Florida firewall may be starting to smolder. Money is an issue with the big Super Tuesday, February 5th states coming in little more than three weeks. Rudy aides say they are prepared to spend 8 million in Florida. That means every penny he has is spoken for and he’s asked staffers to work without pay. He says it’s not a problem.

Real Clear Politics breaks down the delegate count and shows the Republican race is still fluid. To see more go to Real Clear Politics.

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Trying to regain momentum in the GOP primary battle, Rudy Giuliani is set to deliver what the campaign is calling a “major” address in Tampa, FL Saturday morning.

Campaign Manager Mike DuHaime told Fox News today that the former NYC mayor intends to discuss his accomplishments and experience in NYC, but focus on emphasizing a “vision for the future.” The argument in sum: “(There is) one leader who is tested, been tested in times of crisis, who is ready to lead right now, looking forward to the challenges this country may face….there are two things you have to look at for any candidate. What is their vision for where they want to take America? And then, do they have a track record that proves that they can do what they are saying they are going to do? With the mayor you have someone with a great vision and also somebody with a track record who has done what many people thought was impossible.”

While the message (part national security and part fiscal conservative) does not deviate much from what we are hearing on the stump or in his TV ads, Giuliani has lost track of the news cycle as of late, and the campaign is billing this as a chance to begin making his closing argument to voters. Giuliani rarely gives formal speeches, usually opting for meet and greets at diners or short statements at the top of town hall meetings.

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Sarasota, FL — A quick roundup of Giuliani’s Florida trip Thursday. Topics: Florida Primary, the recent Iran National Intelligence Estimate and Mitt Romney’s speech.

Sarasota, FL — Calling the U.S. a country of “toleration,” Rudy Giuliani today praised his rival, Mitt Romney, for his speech on faith, saying that he agrees with everything he heard in Romney’s speech and believes the former Massachusetts governor put any questions about his faith “to rest.”

“I thought Governor Romney said everything I agree with. I guess it’d be better if he didn’t have to do that….he did what he thought he had to do….you would wish that everybody would move beyond that,” Giuliani said. “I believe his talk helped to put that issue to rest. There is no religious test for office. There shouldn’t be a religious test for office.”

Giuliani made the comments after receiving an endorsement from the 10-13 Association (an organization of retired NYPD officers) as part of a quick campaign swing through the Sunshine State.

“We are a country of toleration. We are a country that was built on religious freedom. And we are country..in which we respect each other’s right to have different views about religion, about God, about belief in God and how we all look at it,” he added. “I think the Governor made that point very clearly today. I can’t imagine anybody disagreeing with that.”

Romney gave his much-anticipated speech on his Mormon faith earlier today in Texas. (More here)

After criticism that videos of talking snowman dumbed down the first YOUTUBE debate for democrats, republicans now get their turn. Wednesday’s GOP youtube debate in Fla is likly to focus on MIKE HUCKABEE. The frmr Ark Gov is NOW 2ND IN THE SUNSHINE STATE!

In recent weeks the darkhorse Huckabee has also surged into a first place tie with Mitt Romney in the lead off caucus state of Ia. IN FLORIDA Huckabee is also gaining steam according to Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research poll taken 11/25&26 among 675 likely voters w/ MOE +/- 3.5%

Rudy Giuliani (26%)
Mike Huckabee (17%)
John McCain (13%)
Mitt Romney (12%)
Fred Thompson (9%)

The GOP nomination is up for grabs, no question.

Giuliani’s national frontrunner status is at risk if he loses too many early states.  His campaign considers Fla a must win. When it comes to being the conservative “anti-rudy” his rivals can each say they have a shot at winning one of the lead off early races.

-Huck is moving in Ia & Fl.
-Mitt still leads in Ia&NH & has $!

-Fred’s up in SC-1st test in south
-McCain’s strong in NH

All that makes Fla MORE important to Rudy. He is counting on the states diversity and large number of NY transplants to make the sunshine state his firewall. Florida votes January 29th. After Ia, NH, SC, NV and MI, but before the huge Feb 5th Super Tuesday primaries.

With 37 days to the first votes the GOP backbiting now resembles 3 dimensional chess, with 5 players… And it HAS turned personal. The candidates use immigration, crime, taxes and spending, and social issues to attack one anothers’ honesty, judgement, experience, truthfulness, principle and trustworthiness.

Each candidate is simultaneously involved in skirmishes with 3 or 4 rivals at a time. While Huckabee’s likely to take heat from several rivals Wednesday, Rudy remains a target as the national frontrunner and Romney is in everyone’s sites as the leader in Ia and NH.

David Borman says CNN received 5,000 You Tube entries. They are culling it to 70 or so you tube questions. All of the candidates supplied their own 30 sec video, each of which will be played during the debate as pacers. Asked if there will be questions from hotdog or a lego person a smiling Borman hedged: “We’re not ruling out questions that are from non-humans.”

He went on to say there will be a few “good songs”, some good production, and then strongly emphasized there are “some VERY HARD questions” on issues of importance to the GOP nomination. Another well placed CNN insider says Anderson Cooper wants to see lots of videos and does not plan to pretend he is an expert. They hope to “carve an editorial path thru the questions” without using a timer or warning lights. Anderson Cooper will handle it and the candidates will be on an “honor system.”

One other Florida point: It is IMPORTANT too that Florida is the only major winner-take-all state before Super Tuesday 2/5. Fla has 113 GOP nomination delegates…the first really big delegate prize toward the nomination. But only half of Fla’s delegates are currently expected to be awarded at the RNC convention. The national GOP plans to dock several states half their delegates for jumping ahead on the calendar. Other states currently at risk of being docked 50% of their delegates: Ia 40, NH 24, SC 46, NV 32, Mi 61. But all of those early states’ delegates are also awarded proportionately. Fla is the first winner-take-all state, so it holds more delegates for its’ winner than IA, NH and SC combined (after thier delegates are apportioned.)

In the end all the early states are expected to have all of their delegates seated. Technically the rules say they are out of compliance and should be penalized, but generally such spats are resolved before the roll call. Democrats are in a similar situation but (unlike republicans who refuse to let their party prevent them from talking to voters) several democratic candidates have signed pledges to NOT campaign in states that are frontloading in violation of DNC rules.

Florida (home of the 2000 recount in which democrats chanted “count every vote”) is essentially being boycotted by democratic candidates because the national party wants to be able to dictate to the state when it may hold its’ primary.

Homestead, FL — Florida Governor Charlie Crist praised Rudy Giuliani today but intimated that he may hold off entirely on endorsing a GOP candidate until after the scheduled January 29 state primary.

“I love the guy. I think he is wonderful,” Crist said during a quick interview in pit row during today’s Ford 400 NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship. “(But) I might wait and let the people of Florida make their decision first. I’m the people’s governor and I don’t want to usurp democracy from them.”

Carl Cameron reported last month that Crist is likely to endorse Giuliani but will likely wait for a strategic time in the run up to the primary. Florida is a must-win state for the former mayor and Crist’s organization and popularity would be a major asset.

For his part, Crist did little to knock down that thinking today, making sure his affection for the mayor was clear, adding an extra, “I sure think a lot of the mayor” for good measure.