Major reports on Obama’s aggressive linking of McCain to the Bush administration’s foreign policy. Carl is with Republican hopeful, John McCain as he addresses the NRA convention in Louisville, Ky.
New Orleans, LA:
Though Hillary Clinton’s big win over Barack Obama was THE story out of Pennsylvania, there were candidates on the GOP ballot too.
John McCain has long since clinched the Republican nomination so the Keystone primary results are basically irrelevant as evidenced by the 800 thousand votes that were cast in the Republican race, as compared to the more than 2.2 million Democratic ballots cast BUT….
McCain got 575,000K votes or 73 percent. Ron Paul, who did a little campaigning in Pennsylvania received 125,000 votes or 16 percent. And Mike Huckabee won 90,000 votes for 11 percent.
Huckabee endorsed McCain weeks ago and will campaign publicly for John McCain starting Friday in Little Rock.
Paul raised surprising amounts of money last year, and still has plenty to spend but has given no indication that he intends it.
McCain has used this uncontested time to work on GOP unity, self definition, and expanding his party with gutsy visits to Selma, Alabama to court black voters and Youngstown, Ohio to give unemployed blue-collar manufacturing workers some straight talk about the need to retrain for new jobs that will last and compete in the new economy.
The fact that McCain, without serious competition, only got 3/4ths of the GOP votes in a key general election bellweather swing state may cause some to speculate that he’s still having trouble unifying his party…but from the moment his major rivals dropped out major polls including Gallup have said more than of 80 percent of GOP voters are comfortable with McCain.
There is little doubt that Republicans will rally around McCain (and against Democrats) in the general election…if he is to win however it will require Independents and Reagan Democrats. It is his efforts to court THEM that may matter most…
The March 4th primaries could put McCain over the top for the GOP nomination and Huckabee officially in second place for the 2008 GOP race.
These are HISTORIC achievements that to many seemed unimaginable last year. This VLOG and the FNC political unit however never once wrote off McCain last year when others did.
And while Huckabee went virtually unnoticed until last years Ames strawpoll, we identified him in January of 2007 as the darkhorse most likely to surprise.
Now McCain has 1014 delegates. He needs 177 to reach the needed 1191.
Huckabee has won 257 delegates. He needs 24 to best Mitt Romney who won 280.
McCain is expected to take VT and RI outright but neither Texas nor Ohio are winner take all – they are awarded proportionally by state senate and congressional district respectively. If Huckabee wins any combination of 8 Texas state senate or Ohio congressional districts he will win 24 delegates and thus go ahead of Romney. Undisputed 2nd place.
Huckabee will make no definitive statements Tuesday night about the future of his campaign. But look for news on Thursday when he returns to Little Rock. For weeks the Huckabee campaign has been doing an unofficial victory lap. The governor and his staff are delighted by his success and acknowledged status as a conservative leader who will now be well positioned to run again in the future.
Camp Huck is steering people away from veep speculation. The governor doesn’t expect an offer and insiders say if it came he should reject it. They think Huckabee’s future prospects are stronger making his own way rather than playing #2 to McCain.
McCain must first co-opt the RNC, and its a long complex process to take over the sprawling Bush admin national party apparatus. They are for now merely studying how past VP’s have been chosen and discussing how to come up with their own process.
Republicans all over the country are emailing and calling the campaign with their runningmate advice. While Huckabee would have us believe he is disinterested for now, that has never been the case for Mitt Romney.
Though Romney and McCain fought tooth and nail and grew legitimately angry with one another for exaggerated charges and counter charges throughout their year long battle, alot of republican grey beards think they make a good team on paper…..
Columbus, Ohio:
At his victory rally after handily winning Wisconsin, there was no confetti and little raucous music but McCain flanked the stage with young people following post Potomac Primary criticism of the image of him surrounded by old members of the party establishment.
In his victory speech he attacked Obama HARD.
See our own Embed producer, Mosheh Oinounou’s write-up on the predicted win.
When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.
Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;
1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire
2) Giuliani was leading the national polls
3) Fred Thompson held early promise.
Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.
McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.
Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.
McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:
“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.
“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.
“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain
Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.
It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.
SHOW ME STATE IS A 3 MAN SHOWDOWN, TENNESSEE IS A TOSSUP TOO, MCCAIN LOOKS FOR ALABAMA GETAWAY.
Missouri is winner take all with 58 delegates. The latest ARG polls out today shows Huckabee leading 31-29 over McCain with Romney at 27.
McCain appears to have a hammer lock on NY, NJ, Ct, DE, and Az,,,for a total of 251 delegates to start. He leads in Delaware 41-35 over Romney in the latest ARG poll.
Romney has Utah in hand where there is a large Mormon population and 36 winner take all delegates. Massachusetts has 43 delegates and Romney has a big lead but it is not winner take all and McCain is playing to win there. Romney is also making a move on West Virginia’s 18 winner take all delegates, and competing in Co., Mn., Mt., and N.D.
Mike Huckabee leads the RCP average of polls in Georgia based on a big bump in a recent Insider Advantage survey. Huck trailed in two earlier polls, Georgia has 72 non-winner take all delegates. Arkansas should be a gimmee for Huck with its 34 proportionately awarded delegates.
There is also a poll from WSMV-TV that shows Huckabee leading in Tennessee 24-23 over McCain.
The truth is he may be able to come in second in several southern and conservative states including Ga., Al., Mo., Ok, and his home state of Arkansas. He could even squeak out wins if things go right. Every vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, or at least that is what Mitt Romney himself has said.
Do not forget!! Out of the 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 GOP convention that takes place 2/5 –10 are winner take all but in 11 contests delegates are awarded proportionately to the top three. Mitt and Huck will have some delegates even if they win no states.
Romney surrogates have been blasting Huckabee in many of those states and others. Publicly Romney is focused on McCain but in several conservative states where Huckabee is popular the Romney camp is attacking Huckabee too.
Huckabee was asked if a poor Super Tuesday showing might end his candidacy today and said not only does he not want to quit he can’t! His explanation is that
“it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog”
and he’s got plenty left. Furthermore Huckaboomers want him to stay in and Huck himself believes that if republicans don’t pick him they should pick McCain and not Romney
Huckabee’s attacks on Romney have many speculating that the former Ark Gov is auditioning for the McCain veep spot.
GOP campaign shakeups:
Fred Thompson sources say the actor and former Tenn senator may withdraw from the race. There are no plans to attend Thursday’s Florida debate.
Staffers have been on partial pay since the NH primary. The Senators plans are very fluid. As of 8:45 this evening, there are no plans for any announcement about whether he will stay in the race or not. The team is wrestling with very few options. The Senator is in Nashville visiting his mother (in her 90’s) who has been ill.
From THE FIRST DAY Fox News broke the story last March of his candidacy, Thompson has always had a vice presidential bid in mind. Today a top aide even mentioned the idea on Brian and the Judge on Fox News Radio.
Mike Huckabee, has also kept vice presidential options open by NOT strongly criticizing Giuliani or McCain. Huckabee is retooling his campaign to cherrypick some Super Tuesday states on Feb 5th (notably Ga and Alabama).
Huck bet the ranch on SC and coming in second did little for his weak Fla organization and almost NO organization anywhere else. Fla and Feb 5th are dauntingly expensive. Sources say Huck has money, but nowhere near what he’d like for the BIG states ahead.
Rudy Guiliani says he will continue to discuss issue differences with his rivals but will not go negative. Hizzoner’s team went into Fla a month ago prepared to spend more than $8 million dollars to win. Rudy does not have a lot of money left and he’s cratering in the polls. He may need to rethink playing nice.
A Fla defeat could effectively send Rudy from the big leagues to the Veepstakes as well.
John McCain is tapped out to. His early wins have not exactly created a firehose of cash. But what he lacks in web donations he will will try to make up for with a big fundraiser this week in NYC…right in Rudy’s backyard…where McCain now leads the polls. None of McCain’s rivals want to take the first punch (lest they suffer a backlash and lose ground too) in a multi candidate field. If he emerges the unscathed frontrunner from Thursdays
Fla debate, he will be HARD to beat.
Mitt Romney leads the estimated delegate count after 6 contests with three wins, two seconds, and a fourth. He has spent considerable time and money in Fla and is competitive (in the top 3) in every poll (even leading some.). Romney has no plans for attack ads, at this point.
Florida could be tough for Mitt, he has support but it is not firmly committed. Importantly, in this race there are no delegates for “silver or bronze”…the sunshine state is winner take all.
TEN DAYS IS A LONG TIME.
In fact there have not been ten uninterrupted campaign days in this entire campaign. The ten days before Iowa included Christmas and New Years.
Since August John McCain has been the come-from-behind-underdog. For the first time in the race he is going to get the full front-runner treatment: intense scrutiny and relentless criticism from his rivals.
Huckabee’s gracious praise for McCain in tonight’s concession speech smacked of a short list audition. He promised to remain in the nominating “process” for a long time, and said he still believes it will end “in the White House.” But there were moments when he spoke about his campaign in the past tense, and he didn’t say in what capacity he believed he would end up in Casa Blanca.
The exit-polls gave McCain the lead – the actual precinct tabulations are coming in and reflect the same thing BUT Greenville and a few key upstate communities have not come in yet. Those areas are Chuck (Norris?) full o’ Huck votes.
Grab a snack, it ain’t over yet. The McCainiacs are pumped but just like one shouldn’t count chickens before they’re hatched, one shouldn’t count the Palmetto State in the win column until the major precinct returns are tabulated.
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