Turnout is steady in the low country and lighter in the upstate.

South Carolina Republican Party officials expect half a million votes will be cast provided the weather isn’t too lousy in the upstate.

Both Mike Huckabee and John McCain SHOULD win South Carolina. The latest American Research Group Poll taken 1/17-1/18 shows:

Huckabee 33% McCain 26% Thompson 21% Romney 9% undecided 4%

This is a huge jump for Huckabee who was in second place two days ago. AND MOST pollsters and state political pros will tell you that about 1 in 5 are undecided. I’ve found undecideds at both Huckabee and McCain events without really even trying. The McCain camp said it was looking at survey data suggesting they were breaking evenly with Huckabee among undecideds. But its tough for pollsters to catch which way undecideds break when it happens on the final day. Though I suspect the gap is not a big as what ARG has pickedup, I think my old pal pollster Dick Bennett may have found on the phone what is visible on the ground, Huckabee has buzz and his supporters have more intensity than McCain.

Huckabee and McCain teams both say it’s close. Huck’s camp is more confident- But McCainiacs say they believe McCain will withstand an acknowledged late Huck surge.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Since 2000 some in NH have continued to call John McCain “President of New Hampshire.”

As FNC Chief White House correspondent in the Spring of 2006 I saw Senior McCainiacs visit the White House more than once – and they didn’t like me knowing they were there. Before I gave up the WH gig to return to the trail for this very race, Senior White House officials often uttered the words:

“It’s McCain’s turn.”

Of course he hired several top Bushies, rehired his 2000 team, added a few new folks and ran up huge bills. His organization was so sprawling it collapsed under its own weight – then imploded. He was written off. Wholesale firings and resignations before August were designed to get him back on track after Labor Day. The Petraeus report came out. So did Fred Thompson, occasionally. Huckabee went largely unnoticed in NH. So, when Thompson fizzled everywhere but South Carolina, NH became a 2 man race: Mitt v McCain.

Thompson’s absence in Iowa, and becuz McCain basically skipped it, turned Iowa into a Mitt v Huckabee battle. It is a cardinal rule in first-in-the-nation politics, NEVER be in first place in the final two months, attacks in the last month can ruin you. Mitt was further hampered by the need to battle on two fronts. McCain got a pass in Iowa’s expectations game. Huck gets a pass in NH. Mitt went to war in both places at once.

With most establishment republicans skeptical of Huckabee’s chances beyond South Carolina, many are now wrestling with the possibility that perhaps it is “McCain’s Turn.”

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HuckaBOOM!
Comes the Revolution?
Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters.
That populism will now be expanded to emphasize fair trade, a tough but compassionate approach to illegal immigration reform, and the “fair tax” (replace income taxes with a 23% sales tax)
These will be among the things Huckabee will use to cast himself as the outsider against John McCain (ironic since McCain is often criticized as a maverick, but he was the chairman of the senate commerce cmte) and Mitt Romney who he has already cast as too rich to be able to connect with average folks.
McCain had an edge in NH against Romney, in a three way race including Huckabee, McCain may be even more strenghtened now.
Obama’s big win will inspire independents in NH…bad news for Rudy Giuliani who was counting on Indies for a respectable first primary showing.
Money matters.
Romney looks even worse having outspent Huckabee 10-1 in Iowa. Huckabee will enjoy a fundraising windfall now and the press will be huge, But Romney is a mult millionaire and willing to keep spending “for the long haul.”
Giuliani, McCain, Thompson all have cash problems. Not so Mitt.
Romney and Huckabee aides agree tonite was an anti washington message, and they note Obama’s change message is part of that.
Huckabee knows NH is far more secular than Iowa or South Carolina. Earlier this wk, Huckabee aides routinely said if they won they would next emphasize SC. That will shift now as they embrace the magnitude of tonites win and make a renewed effort in NH…
As one aide put it “this is a big wave, we can surf anywhere now.” That may be overconfident but with two debates this weekend and a record of strong debate performances, Huckabee knows a moment is at hand.

Paraleipsis…..look it up:)

FOX News was the first to obtain a copy of the whole ad:

Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be talking about this story right up until they vote. They are sophisticated and saturated by election news and devour this type of oddity like a prime rib at Des Moines’ Iowa Beef Steakhouse. Say what you will, but know this strange move WILL get attention.

The back story:

On Saturday afternoon Huckabee cleared most of his Sunday schedule and aides refused to explain. It was a mysterious, suspicious move but aides refused to confirm it was to cut new ads. Early Sunday morning after one live shot pointing out that taking the last Sunday off before caucus without explanation would irk Iowa caucus goers, Huckabee aides immediately copped to a day in the studio for new ads.

They were to be tough “rebuttal ads.” The final DVD’s were printed for shipment to Iowa TV stations at 1:00am Monday morning. There was dissent in Huckworld. Some wanted to attack. Others didn’t.

What many Hucksters envisioned was an ad denouncing Romney’s attacks but rather than returning in kind, pledging more positivity. What came out was a straight up hit on Romney, and many instantly thought it was too much, mean. Like Romney.

To be fair some of Huckabee’s attacks have been far more personal than Mitts of late. Huck admits he was in to negativity himself on the stump recently.

Family members reminded Huck he had never run an ad like that in Arkansas. Iowa aides warned it would turn people off. Huck made the call. BUT a deal was struck with those favoring the attack: run it in the news conference – proving it’s existence, and delivering the message.

Monday morning I was triple tipped. First: it was back off the negative counter attack reporting, its not happening. Then I was re-tipped: Romney’s gonna be stunned, its tough. Then re-re-tipped: some people think its a bad idea.

An hour later the governor told a packed news conference he was halting the ad, but would play it for us. Reporters burst into unapologetic guffaws of laughter – skepticism code: day-glow red blinking neon! The idea that at this late date, having called Romney dishonest, disingenuous, ruthless, and various other goodies, he would suddenly swear off negative campaigning was too much for most.

Then the debut of the ad went haywire. They hit play, video rolled with no sound – it was recording in the cameras but there was silence in the room for reporters, abort.

Restart: audio in the room but not to the cameras, rewind. The third do over had no audio to the room or the cameras…The tiny speakers on the laptop played for those of us within a few feet. NOBODY RECORDED A USEABLE VERSION OF THE AD AT THE NEWS CONFERENCE.

Huck said they were not distributing it but told reporters repeatedly it had been sent to TV stations around Iowa to run at noon.

So now Huck is embarrassed (IS HE?) that the ad he never wanted you to see (and said would only be shown in that news conference room) is all over the place. (see the front page of Foxnews.com.)

Some will say they planned it this way: to look like he’s taking the high road by pulling the spot, while getting more news coverage for the attack message than he could ever afford to buy.
But they also knew it would look bad to reverse course…indecisive-disarray? Unpredictable under pressure?

If he loses this will be one of many causes. If he wins this will be a defining moment written about for years. With the exception of the revered Des Moines Register poll Huck was trending down and Mitt trending up for several days.

The campaign knew they had to do something dramatic to stop the slide and change the dynamics. They knew it had to be good to break through on New Years eve. Winning campaigns always take risks and always need luck. They rolled the dice.

This was certainly different and if Huckabee pulls out the caucus win, his aides all say this will be a big part of the reason why. Huckaboom? Huckabust? Less than a hundred hours to find out.

Gov Huck did no public campaigning with Iowans today. With 4 days left NO RETAIL GET OUT THE VOTE RALLIES??????

If Huck wins the caucuses, his new ads may be credited with halting his slide. If he comes up short people may wonder if this lost Sunday, lost him the race.

Gloves off doesn’t cover it. More like knives out and sharpened for the stretch run.

Mitt unleashes another attack ad on Huckabee citing Condi’s “ludicrous” line (though not perhaps as she meant it). One of Huckabee’s new ads calls his “opponents” (wonder who) “desperate and dishonest” but he wants a real debate, you know, for the kids.

http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=728418

Romney had a gift under the tree (a grenade?) for McCain in the form of a NH ad on taxes and immigration. But did he bring a knife to a gunfight? McCain ad responds with a blistering recitation of editorial opinions on Mitt (phony? ouch) that the governor thinks is (at least) a step over the line.

http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=728416

Huckabee puts Pakistan and illegal immigration together and comes up with a stew that may have a little too much salt. He also defended McCain’s honor in light of Mitt attack ad. Enemy of my enemy?

And Rudy wants to be part of the conversation (didn’t anyone notice the 9/11 ad?) but since he is not a player in the early states he is having a hard time.

Dems still debating Pakistan. Did Axelrod cross the line? Obama says it is HRC’s campaign’s fault. Does HRC know anything more about foreign policy that what she learnt at tea time?

Check out the blow by blows at:

Embed’s Blog

Anti-gun liberals think of the catch phrase “God and Guns” as a pejorative and often use it to ridicule republicans for pandering. Not Mike Huckabee, an avid hunter of duck, who explains hunters keep wildlife alive.

He bagged one pheasant then jetted to Florida to bag some campaign cash. Unlike Rudy Giuliani who is actually campaigning in Florida as his firewall, Huckabee could just as easily have been in L-A, NY or Texas…he’s after money and it happens to be in the Sunshine state today. Right now his campaign priorities are all about Iowa, then a good showing in New Hampshire, and another winning performance in South Carolina. Anything less and he may eventually wind up in Arkansas’s equivalent of the political happy hunting ground.

The Iowa Republican caucuses are a toss up. Mike Huckabee’s arrived. Mitt Romney’s not gone. BUT today Romney, who may well win, laid claim to victory in second. It’s hardly an original strategy, in the EXPECTATIONS GAME that is “the first in the nation.”

It wasn’t quite Bob Dole circa 1988 “quit lying about my record” but in a Des Moines news conference Huckabee unloaded on Romney’s attack ads.

“he’s been attacking me just ruthlessly in the mail and on television and distorting the record and I think we need to get the record straightened up…the attacks have been desperate and I think they have been dishonest.”

But wait! Then Huck said

“I’m not gonna fight with him. He’s throwing punches and I’m saying merry christmas.”

Then Huckabee suggested that when the eventual nominee is selected he would like to be legitimately supportive. It was hard to not notice……he cast himself as an also ran.

“We’re gonna at some point have a nominee. It’s gonna be one of us and the rest of us are all gonna be sort of forced to sort of stand on that stage with big smiles on our face and say this is just great with us…I don’t want to do that with some disingenuous grin on my face, I wanna be able to say we had a good battle, the best man won, and now we are going to unite this party, we’re gonna keep the WH and bring America back to its best days”.

Whoops!

In Florida on Sunday following the univision debate I interviewed the governor. Afterward he and his staffers heavily advertised a big news making endorsement Friday in NH.

It’s a national figure. They were very excited. They have been telling reporters ever since so its likely to leak…interesting way and time to raise expectations.

After Mitt’s immigration ad hitting Huck, the new Iowa frontrunners aides couldn’t wait to roll out the endorsement by the founder of the Minutemen. But the organization went out of it’s way to criticize Huckabee’s illegal immigration record and say the founder was not speaking for the group.

No question Chuck Norris and Rick Flair brought Huck’s name ID up…Oprah didn’t hurt Obama.

It’s rally and get out the vote time so anything that draws cameras is a boon. Todays Huck backer will be unveiled in Concord NH.