Paraleipsis…..look it up:)

FOX News was the first to obtain a copy of the whole ad:

Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be talking about this story right up until they vote. They are sophisticated and saturated by election news and devour this type of oddity like a prime rib at Des Moines’ Iowa Beef Steakhouse. Say what you will, but know this strange move WILL get attention.

The back story:

On Saturday afternoon Huckabee cleared most of his Sunday schedule and aides refused to explain. It was a mysterious, suspicious move but aides refused to confirm it was to cut new ads. Early Sunday morning after one live shot pointing out that taking the last Sunday off before caucus without explanation would irk Iowa caucus goers, Huckabee aides immediately copped to a day in the studio for new ads.

They were to be tough “rebuttal ads.” The final DVD’s were printed for shipment to Iowa TV stations at 1:00am Monday morning. There was dissent in Huckworld. Some wanted to attack. Others didn’t.

What many Hucksters envisioned was an ad denouncing Romney’s attacks but rather than returning in kind, pledging more positivity. What came out was a straight up hit on Romney, and many instantly thought it was too much, mean. Like Romney.

To be fair some of Huckabee’s attacks have been far more personal than Mitts of late. Huck admits he was in to negativity himself on the stump recently.

Family members reminded Huck he had never run an ad like that in Arkansas. Iowa aides warned it would turn people off. Huck made the call. BUT a deal was struck with those favoring the attack: run it in the news conference – proving it’s existence, and delivering the message.

Monday morning I was triple tipped. First: it was back off the negative counter attack reporting, its not happening. Then I was re-tipped: Romney’s gonna be stunned, its tough. Then re-re-tipped: some people think its a bad idea.

An hour later the governor told a packed news conference he was halting the ad, but would play it for us. Reporters burst into unapologetic guffaws of laughter – skepticism code: day-glow red blinking neon! The idea that at this late date, having called Romney dishonest, disingenuous, ruthless, and various other goodies, he would suddenly swear off negative campaigning was too much for most.

Then the debut of the ad went haywire. They hit play, video rolled with no sound – it was recording in the cameras but there was silence in the room for reporters, abort.

Restart: audio in the room but not to the cameras, rewind. The third do over had no audio to the room or the cameras…The tiny speakers on the laptop played for those of us within a few feet. NOBODY RECORDED A USEABLE VERSION OF THE AD AT THE NEWS CONFERENCE.

Huck said they were not distributing it but told reporters repeatedly it had been sent to TV stations around Iowa to run at noon.

So now Huck is embarrassed (IS HE?) that the ad he never wanted you to see (and said would only be shown in that news conference room) is all over the place. (see the front page of Foxnews.com.)

Some will say they planned it this way: to look like he’s taking the high road by pulling the spot, while getting more news coverage for the attack message than he could ever afford to buy.
But they also knew it would look bad to reverse course…indecisive-disarray? Unpredictable under pressure?

If he loses this will be one of many causes. If he wins this will be a defining moment written about for years. With the exception of the revered Des Moines Register poll Huck was trending down and Mitt trending up for several days.

The campaign knew they had to do something dramatic to stop the slide and change the dynamics. They knew it had to be good to break through on New Years eve. Winning campaigns always take risks and always need luck. They rolled the dice.

This was certainly different and if Huckabee pulls out the caucus win, his aides all say this will be a big part of the reason why. Huckaboom? Huckabust? Less than a hundred hours to find out.

THE NUMBERS!

Iowa has STUNNING influence BUT breathtakingly LOW TURNOUT!!

The first in the nation state has three mllion ppl and 2 million registered voters.

(D-619K, R-595K I- 766K)

How many are expected to take advantage of Iowa’s unique opportunity to set the presidential campaigns’ trajectory???
…a paltry 225 thousand.

THAT MAY PROVE GENEROUS!!

Optimistic Republican Party turnout models are for 85 to 95 thousand caucus goers.

That means when polls show Huckabee and Romney within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 4,750 votes plus AND/OR minus…in otherwords at most 9500 caucus goers. That’s a paper thin difference,

Democratic party officials are loathe to estimate but based on 2004 they don’t dispute a guess at 125 thousand.

That means when polls show Clinton and Obama are within a 5% margin of error they are separated by 6,250 votes plus
AND/OR minus….in other words at most 12,500 caucus goers.
That too is a paper thin difference.

To reiterate; out of 3 million ppl…approximately 220 thousand are expected to vote…that’s 7.3%
of the population or 1 out of 15 people.

Among registered voters it’s 11% or basically 1 in 10 registered voters.

In Iowa’s defense, the caucus is a burden to voters and that means those who turnout are deeply motivated and informed.
That is why the campaigns call it an organizational test. Getting out your vote is like finding needles in Iowa’s frozen haystacks.
Iowa is also an expectations game…in recent days the toss up nature of the race means expectations for many candidates are high..and the stakes even higher.

We told you so. To be fair, so did a lot of political reporters. This was always gonna be a photo finish -on BOTH sides. Much will happen in the next 12 DAYS before Christmas. Much will happen in the 9 days after that- in the few days before Iowa’s caucuses (because of the holidays candidates have already begun their Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts and their closing arguments early.)

But COME ON! Junkies knew it was gonna be an unpredictable sprint and finish, so stop acting so shocked!done