The debate’s non-confrontational format thus far–asking the same questions of all the candidates– is allowing all of the contenders to go back to their regular stump speeches. Good for the candidates and their message but snoozer for the media thus far…

Ten minutes into a Republican debate in Des Moines, Iowa, and John McCain has come out with one of the boldest statements of his campaign so far. He promised to make the U.S. oil independent within five years.

The Senator says he’ll make it happen quickly, with a program like the Manhattan Project. That was the big push the U.S. made to build an atomic bomb before Germany could get one.

After the AP reported that the Clinton campaign was preparing for a possible loss in Iowa by building a firewall in New Hampshire, two new polls show Obama pulling into a dead heat. A new WMUR poll has Hillary leading Barack Obama by a single point, 31-30. She once led the same poll by 20 points. And Rasmussen Reports actually has Obama ahead in the Granite State, 31-28.

Meanwhile, a new survey from Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision shows Obama ahead by 8 in Iowa, 33-25.  But a Rasmussen poll shows Hillary leading 29-26, confirming what everyone already knows about Iowa — it’s just too close to call.

To add insult to injury, the NY Daily News reports that Bill Clinton is so worried about the campaign’s recent performance that he’s taking a much more active role, and there are rumors of an impending staff shake-up — rumblings that were denied by Sen Clinton herself yesterday.

Our own Major Garrett reports that the Clinton campaign “exhibits increasing annoyance at what it regards as a ‘free ride’ for Obama from the political press corps and feels beseiged as it has to bat away incessant questions about declining poll numbers in early battleground states and accounts of deepening turmoil at the highest levels of the Clinton campaign.”

The Clinton folks are trying to end that free ride, pushing newly-surfaced voter questionnaires filled out by Obama that they believe underscore their contention that Obama is either too liberal, too inconsistent, or too unelectable — or all three.

For the first time in more than a month, John McCain is campaigning in Iowa… but if you blink you’ll miss him.

McCain is here for Wednesday’s Republican debate sponsored by the Des Moines Register. Though he’s added a couple town hall meetings to his schedule, he’ll spend less than 48 hours in the Hawkeye state.

Three week before the caucuses, McCain has all but given up in Iowa. He has just 12 full time staffers here, and no TV ads or direct mail. His cash-strapped campaign is focusing its limited resources on New Hampshire and South Carolina.

McCain is running fourth or fifth in Iowa with poll numbers in the single digits. He has failed to catch fire among social conservatives, and says he’s been hurt by his opposition to ethanol subsidies.

Chicago, IL-

How long does it take to get from the Univision debate in Miami to the Iowa Public Television/Des Moines Register debate in Iowa? Well, I have been trying to get there for 20 hours and I’ve only made it to Chicago. Such is the life of an embed, but what a tale it is. Freezing rain here caused the initial 2-hour delay in Miami. Then after landing in Chicago I was ecstatic that the Des Moines flight had been delayed because it meant that I could still get to Iowa. At that point, I could still see the positive side of delays. . .how naïve!

We are delayed another hour and a half and then we board. I actually won the delayed flight lottery! I sit down and wait to pull out of the gate. Of course that never happens and instead the pilot comes on to announce that the flight has been cancelled. The tired, unhappy passengers, including myself, shuffle off. I am re-booked on the 6:25AM this morning and I am not allowed up pick up my bags because they are “locked up” so they can be re-loaded in the morning.

I wake up this morning at 4:15AM and the American Airlines website and automated phone line both say my flight is on time. As I get on the airport bus I have hope and I try to stay positive. That hope is quickly dashed as I see all the morning flights have been cancelled. American Airlines calls to inform me of the cancellation at 6AM, 30 minutes after my flight was supposed to take off. When did airline service get so bad?

I am now re-booked on a flight tomorrow morning. The weather is so severe in Iowa that Mike Huckabee and John Edwards have cancelled campaign events. Spouses are also being affected with both Ann Romney and President Clinton having to scrap their events as well. Governor Romney was able to meet with voters at the sky mall in downtown Des Moines today. But, evaded all questions regarding his new ad pointing out the differences between himself and Governor Huckabee on immigration.

Romney staffers are also affected by the severe weather with many also trying to get to Des Moines for tomorrow’s debate. Staffers are stranded here in Chicago, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Dallas, all trying to get to Iowa.  I’m stuck in Chicago with campaign photographer Abby Brack. Press Secretary Eric Fehrnstrom is stuck in Dallas, but hopeful he will make it to Iowa tonight.

Bad weather is something that plagues the first in the nation caucus almost every four years. It affects the voters getting out, the candidates campaigning, and of course the press trying to cover both. The caucus could depend on which group of supporters are hardy enough to handle the extreme weather.  Will I get to the debate? Keep checking back for updates!

After spending about a week on the campaign trail attacking Barack Obama over Health Care, Social Security, and his commitment to women’s rights, Hillary Clinton has gone back to emphasizing what she would do as president.

Gone are the frequent mentions of Obama by name, or even the veiled slaps at “some of my opponents” who have health care plans that won’t cover everyone. She’s even gone back to a line her husband used when he campaigned for her in July, saying it’s great to be a Democrat because there are so many fantastic candidates that “you don’t have to be against anyone.”

It could be because she’s been more focused on organizing Iowans to get to the caucuses — campaigning with her mother and daughter last week to ask experienced supporters to “buddy up” with first time caucus goers and make sure they get to their precincts on January 3rd. Or it could be because the attacks earned her a lot of negative press and some negative feeling among Iowans — and didn’t reverse a general downward trend in the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally.

Asked whether she’d given up the attacks because of sinking poll numbers, Sen Clinton told reporters that she would continue to draw distinctions with her opponents throughout the rest of the primary season. Watch what she had to say.done

As ABC’s Jake Tapper reports, even if those “contrasts” have stopped coming from Hillary’s mouth, they’re still flying through the mail.

To break up this uninterrupted string of GOP debate updates, here’s the latest ad from Hillary Clinton — a :60 second spot hitting the air in Iowa and New Hampshire. Called “New Beginning” (read: she can bring change), the ad lays out her big big policy goals over some stirring music and images. As Carl says, this is her closing argument of the primary campaign; it uses video from the campaign trail and hits all the highlights from her speeches — from her call for universal health care to ending the war in Iraq.

There are no “contrasts” (read: attacks on rivals) being drawn here, and you’re not likely to see any from any of the Democratic candidate. They’re all a bit gun shy after the two frontrunners in Iowa, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, engaged in a negative ad war last cycle and built up so much ill will among caucus goers that they both dropped out of the lead, ceding the state to John Kerry and John Edwards.

Chelsea Clinton and her grandmother Dorothy Rodham are on the trail in Iowa with Sen Clinton today. They started the day at Palmer’s Deli in Des Moines, shaking hands in the middle of a media scrum before sitting down and ordering breakfast. Chelsea hasn’t been too visible this election cycle; the last we saw her was at her mom’s 60th birthday party in New York in October.

The other prominent member of the family, former President Bill Clinton, is campaigning in South Carolina today.

Why bring the whole family out this weekend? It may have SOMETHING to do with one Oprah Gail Winfrey hitting the stump with Senator Clinton’s chief Democratic rival, Barack Obama. Hillary was asked whether she was concerned about Oprah drawing big crowds tonight, here’s what she said.

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He’s rising in New Hampshire, struggling in South Carolina, and uncompetitive in Iowa.
John McCain met with volunteers and staffers at his new Nashua, NH, campaign office Friday. He offered his own assessment of where he stands in the three early states, starting with New Hampshire.

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Real Clear Politics, which averages national poll numbers, shows McCain in third place in New Hampshire with about 16% support. Mitt Romney leads with 33.7%.
In South Carolina, RCP puts the Senator at fifth with about 10%. Mike Huckabee is in front with 17.8%.
In Iowa, McCain has about 6%, with Huckabee pulling away from the pack at 29.2%.

Daytime TV Goddess Oprah Winfrey may be touring the early primary states this weekend with her chosen candidate, Barack Obama, but Hillary Clinton campaigned on Friday with a woman who’s supported her since birth — her mother, Dorothy Rodham.

Senator Clinton said her mom’s been following the campaign closely on TV — and told the story of the last time her mother had been in Iowa, some 53 years ago when they stayed at a place called the Tall Corn Motel. Hillary recalled that a waitress had recommended it for its swimming pool, saying “we said, my brother and I, said that’s where we want to stay.” Turns out, the pool wasn’t quite olympic sized.

“It was about as big as this stage,” she said. “We thought we’d died and gone to heaven. We thought it was the greatest experience ever.”

Hillary said her mom had asked to join her daughter in the Hawkeye state, but of course, the timing has some strategic advantages as well. Obama is surging among women here, and Oprah’s visit certainly won’t help matters. Showing some mother-daughter bonding might help Hillary’s cause in that key demographic.

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