The surveys were conducted on January 5 and 6. These are stand-alone samples, including callbacks.
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 39% to 28%, with 22% for John Edwards. This race is turning more on age than party as Obama leads Clinton 42% to 25% among voters age 18 to 64 (comprising 84% of the vote), while Clinton leads among voters 65 years and older 44% to 21% (comprising 16% of the vote).
On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 35% to 27%, with 12% for Mike Huckabee and 10% for Rudy Giuliani.
A Rudy Giuliani campaign volunteer has resigned 48 hours after making derogatory comments about Muslims.
Aides said Saturday morning that John Deady, co-chairman of New Hampshire Veterans for Rudy, is no longer associated with the campaign after telling multiple media outlets this week that he believed Giuliani was the best candidate to drive Muslims “back to their caves.”
Deady, an 80-year old WWII veteran, told the British newspaper, The Guardian, earlier this week that Giuliani has “the knowledge and the judgement to attack one of the most difficult problems in current history and that is the rise of the Muslims…we need to keep the feet to the fire and keep pressing these people until we defeat or chase them back to their caves or in other words get rid of them.”
Asked to clarify what he meant by “the Muslims,” Deady told the Talking Points Memo blog that he did not distinguish between “good muslims and bad Muslims.” Below is a video excerpt of the Guardian interview.
Official Statement from Rudy Giuliani New Hampshire Chairman Wayne Semprini:
“Mr. Deady offered his resignation from his volunteer position in the campaign and I accepted his resignation.”
Sen Clinton has personally apologized to Sen Obama for remarks by her New Hampshire campaign chairman Billy Shaheen, the husband of Gov Jeanne Shaheen, who said yesterday that Obama’s past drug use could be used against him by Republicans in a general election. Shaheen apologized for bringing up the drug issue, and the campaign immediately disavowed his comments.
Now, New Hampshire spokeswoman Kathleen Strand says “Sen. Clinton personally apologized to Sen. Obama this morning, and reiterated that this was not anything that came from the campaign or that we condone.” She confirmed that the apology took place at Washington’s Reagan National Airport as the two left the nation’s capital for a Des Moines, IA presidential debate.
After the AP reported that the Clinton campaign was preparing for a possible loss in Iowa by building a firewall in New Hampshire, two new polls show Obama pulling into a dead heat. A new WMUR poll has Hillary leading Barack Obama by a single point, 31-30. She once led the same poll by 20 points. And Rasmussen Reports actually has Obama ahead in the Granite State, 31-28.
To add insult to injury, the NY Daily News reports that Bill Clinton is so worried about the campaign’s recent performance that he’s taking a much more active role, and there are rumors of an impending staff shake-up — rumblings that were denied by Sen Clinton herself yesterday.
Our own Major Garrett reports that the Clinton campaign “exhibits increasing annoyance at what it regards as a ‘free ride’ for Obama from the political press corps and feels beseiged as it has to bat away incessant questions about declining poll numbers in early battleground states and accounts of deepening turmoil at the highest levels of the Clinton campaign.”
The Clinton folks are trying to end that free ride, pushing newly-surfaced voter questionnaires filled out by Obama that they believe underscore their contention that Obama is either too liberal, too inconsistent, or too unelectable — or all three.
After spending about a week on the campaign trail attacking Barack Obama over Health Care, Social Security, and his commitment to women’s rights, Hillary Clinton has gone back to emphasizing what she would do as president.
Gone are the frequent mentions of Obama by name, or even the veiled slaps at “some of my opponents” who have health care plans that won’t cover everyone. She’s even gone back to a line her husband used when he campaigned for her in July, saying it’s great to be a Democrat because there are so many fantastic candidates that “you don’t have to be against anyone.”
It could be because she’s been more focused on organizing Iowans to get to the caucuses — campaigning with her mother and daughter last week to ask experienced supporters to “buddy up” with first time caucus goers and make sure they get to their precincts on January 3rd. Or it could be because the attacks earned her a lot of negative press and some negative feeling among Iowans — and didn’t reverse a general downward trend in the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally.
Asked whether she’d given up the attacks because of sinking poll numbers, Sen Clinton told reporters that she would continue to draw distinctions with her opponents throughout the rest of the primary season. Watch what she had to say.
He’s rising in New Hampshire, struggling in South Carolina, and uncompetitive in Iowa.
John McCain met with volunteers and staffers at his new Nashua, NH, campaign office Friday. He offered his own assessment of where he stands in the three early states, starting with New Hampshire.
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Real Clear Politics, which averages national poll numbers, shows McCain in third place in New Hampshire with about 16% support. Mitt Romney leads with 33.7%.
In South Carolina, RCP puts the Senator at fifth with about 10%. Mike Huckabee is in front with 17.8%.
In Iowa, McCain has about 6%, with Huckabee pulling away from the pack at 29.2%.
Pushing his get-tough national security views, Rudy Giuliani’s latest television ad–set to hit New Hampshire airwaves this week–pays homage to Ronald Reagan’s dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis.
In the ad, Giuliani attributes the Iranian decision to release the American captives within hours of Reagan’s 1981 presidential inauguration to the Gipper’s strong hand when it came to foreign policy.
“The best way you deal with dictators, the best way you deal with tyrants and terrorists, you stand up to them. You don’t back down,” Giuliani says, noting that the Iranian government held the Americans for 444 days. “They released the American hostages in one hour, and that should tell us a lot about these Islamic terrorists that we’re facing. The one hour in which they released them was the one hour in which Ronald Reagan was taking the Oath of Office as President of the United States.”
The Republican front-runner often lauds Reagan’s foreign policy on the stump–praising his policies towards Iran and the Soviets–and argues that if he takes office, he also intends to increase and project U.S. military strength.
Of course, Giuliani is glossing over a bit of history in the ad since the Iranian decision to release the hostages after Reagan took the oath of office, was more intended to diss President Carter rather than show any fear of Reagan.
Giuliani first four TV ads have mostly focused on his New York City mayoral accomplishments and this is the first that cuts to the heart of his main electoral argument—staying on offense against terrorism and keeping America safe.
An Edwards operative I spoke to in the hotel bar last night wondered aloud when the negative ads from outside groups would start dropping in Iowa. Well, we have our answer. The first independent attack ad of the cycle is out, and it goes after Hillary Clinton — not from her right, but from her left.
A liberal group called Democratic Courage is behind the spot, which blasts Hillary for backing down in the face of Republican pressure — specifically over her comments that she liked the idea of a $5,000 “baby bond” for every child born in America. The ad, which is set to run in Iowa but is suspiciously absent from the IA airwaves, features a life-size cardboard cut-out of the Senator that gets blown over, presumably by the metaphorical winds of GOP criticism.
(UPDATE: the Clinton campaign points out that, as of now, Democratic Courage hasn’t spent a dime to put this ad on TV in Iowa, DC, or anywhere else. It’s a fairly common trick these days to release a web ad without buying any air time, then using the free media buzz to raise money to actually put the ad on TV. As of right now, no Iowans are actually seeing this attack).
The ad comes as Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle sent an email to supporters in the early states complaining that dirty tricks like push-polling and misinformation have already begun — so won’t you send us money to help fight them? All the accounts of the attacks are anecdotal, but Obama’s name is mentioned twice in the fundraising appeal.
Watch the DCourage ad here, and read the email after the jump.
Six long days ahead on the Straight Talk Express in New Hampshire.
John McCain is kicking off a relentless week of retail politics in the Granite State, meeting voters face to face in town halls and diners. His campaign got a boost Sunday with the endorsement of the Manchester Union Leader, the only statewide newspaper.
The Senator admits he needs to do well in New Hampshire to survive. It’s the only early state where he seems to have a fighting chance of winning. In Iowa, most polls show him in fifth place, with single digit support. His numbers are only slightly better in South Carolina.
McCain says he can out-campaign anyone, and he’ll have to prove it. As the primary season approaches, he’s desperately low on cash and simply can’t match what some of his well-funded rivals are spending on TV ads.
Hurricane Warnings for Gulf Coast Ahead of Ida Hurricane Ida chugged toward the Gulf Coast, and despite warnings extending more than 200 miles (322 kilometers) across several states, residents seemed to take the first Atlantic hurricane to target the U.S. this season in stride.
House Bill Is 'DOA' in Senate Gov't health plan included in House bill won't fly with some moderate Senate Dems who hold the balance of power• Lone GOP Supporter of House Bill Defends Vote• YOU DECIDE: Did House Make Right Decision?• Will Health Care Bill Vote Doom Dems?• Source: AMA Won't Overturn Health Bill Endorsement
Tornado Tears Through Coastal Oregon Neighborhood The National Weather Service confirmed it was a tornado that tore through a coastal area of Lincoln City in northwestern Oregon, damaging about a dozen homes.
Chavez to Troops: Prepare for War With Colombia President Hugo Chavez said Venezuela could end up going to war with Colombia as tensions between them rise, and he warned that if a conflict broke out "it could extend throughout the whole continent."
Philadelphia Transit Strike Ends Gov. Ed Rendell says a transit strike that shut down Philadelphia's buses, subways and trolleys for nearly a week is over.
