The latest polls tell it all. McCain wants, and for now NEEDS his opponent to be Hillary. The latest Zogby poll shows McCain handily beating Hillary outside the margin of error, while if he goes up against Obama, McCain LOSES.
McCain has begun trying to define both dems - with particular emphasis last night on Obama. There is more time for the general election race than EVER before, so no campaign is in any hurry to start the serious attacking too soon.
The truth is some in the McCain camp are particularly comfortable with Obama riding higher and higher - the McCainiac argument is that the bigger Obama gets, the bigger the target and the harder the fall, in the fall.

Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D) Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread RCP Average 01/29 to 02/16 - 47.1% 44.7% McCain +2.4% Reuters/Zogby 02/13 - 02/16 928 LV 50% 38% McCain +12% USA Today/Gallup 02/08 - 02/10 706 LV 49% 48% McCain +1% AP-Ipsos 02/07 - 02/10 1,029 A 45% 46% Clinton +1% Time 02/01 - 02/04 958 LV 46% 46% Tie CNN 02/01 - 02/03 974 RV 47% 50% Clinton +3% Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 - 02/02 855 RV 45% 41% McCain +4% ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 1249 A 49% 46% McCain +3% FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 900 RV 45% 44% McCain +1% NPR 01/29 - 01/31 1000 LV 48% 45% McCain +3% Rasmussen (Tues) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 47% 43% McCain +4% See More General Election: McCain vs. Clinton Polls | Chart

John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	01/29 to 02/16	-	43.6%	47.6%	Obama +4.0%
Reuters/Zogby	02/13 - 02/16	928 LV	40%	47%	Obama +7%
USA Today/Gallup	02/08 - 02/10	706 LV	46%	50%	Obama +4%
AP-Ipsos	02/07 - 02/10	1,029 A	42%	48%	Obama +6%
Time	02/01 - 02/04	958 LV	41%	48%	Obama +7%
CNN	02/01 - 02/03	974 RV	44%	52%	Obama +8%
Cook/RT Strategies	01/31 - 02/02	855 RV	43%	45%	Obama +2%
ABC/Wash Post	01/30 - 02/01	1249 A	46%	49%	Obama +3%
FOX News	01/30 - 01/31	900 RV	43%	44%	Obama +1%
NPR	01/29 - 01/31	1000 LV	48%	47%	McCain +1%
Rasmussen (Tues)	4 Day Tracking	1700 LV	43%	46%	Obama +3%

The latest RCP polls show Obama gaining ground on McCain in a head to head match-up with McCain. His lead is still within the margin of error in most polls and much can change in the next 9 months but McCain acknowledged Obama’s front-runner status in his victory speech in VA when he made reference to hope, “Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing…” and continued by saying “to encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope, it is a platitude.”

He finished his speech with Obama’s signature line, “Fired up and ready to go.”

National Head-to-Head Polls

John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D) Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread RCP Average 01/29 to 02/10 - 46.6% 45.6% McCain +1.0% USA Today/Gallup 02/08 - 02/10 706 LV 49% 48% McCain +1% AP-Ipsos 02/07 - 02/10 1,029 A 45% 46% Clinton +1% Time 02/01 - 02/04 958 LV 46% 46% Tie CNN 02/01 - 02/03 974 RV 47% 50% Clinton +3% Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 - 02/02 855 RV 45% 41% McCain +4% ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 1249 A 49% 46% McCain +3% FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 900 RV 45% 44% McCain +1% NPR 01/29 - 01/31 1000 LV 48% 45% McCain +3% Rasmussen (Tues) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 45% 44% McCain +1% See More General Election: McCain vs. Clinton Polls | Chart

John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	01/29 to 02/10	-	43.7%	47.4%	Obama +3.7%
USA Today/Gallup	02/08 - 02/10	706 LV	46%	50%	Obama +4%
AP-Ipsos	02/07 - 02/10	1,029 A	42%	48%	Obama +6%
Time	02/01 - 02/04	958 LV	41%	48%	Obama +7%
CNN	02/01 - 02/03	974 RV	44%	52%	Obama +8%
Cook/RT Strategies	01/31 - 02/02	855 RV	43%	45%	Obama +2%
ABC/Wash Post	01/30 - 02/01	1249 A	46%	49%	Obama +3%
FOX News	01/30 - 01/31	900 RV	43%	44%	Obama +1%
NPR	01/29 - 01/31	1000 LV	48%	47%	McCain +1%
Rasmussen (Tues)	4 Day Tracking	1700 LV	40%	44%	Obama +4%

Counter attack politics. McCain doesn’t much like Romney.

Click Here for McCains take on some tough mailers circulating in South Carolina.

The RCP average of polls show Huckabee with a  lead in South Carolina but several individual polls show McCain leading  Today is Michigan Primary day, polls close at 8pm.

Poll	Date	Huckabee	McCain	Romney	Thompson	Giuliani	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/04 - 01/13	26.5	22.8	16.8	10.3	6.8	5.0	Huckabee +3.7
Rasmussen	01/13 - 01/13	19	28	17	16	5	5	McCain +9.0
FOX News	01/09 - 01/09	18	25	17	9	5	5	McCain +7.0
InsiderAdvantage	01/07 - 01/07	33	21	14	5	8	5	Huckabee +12.0
SurveyUSA	01/04 - 01/06	36	17	19	11	9	5	Huckabee +17.0

Just as McCain has to win SC..Romney has to win Mi.    The direct mail in SC is going to get ferocious now.

McCain aides know they need to win in SC, just as Romney aides know they need Michigan.  Both candidates are in until 2/5, but first Mitt, then McCain have their backs up against the wall in the next 2 states.

Skepticism over Giuliani’s finances dogged him for another day in Florida. He has spent the last few trying to reassure voters that he is not tapped out, even while some aides voluntarily give up their paychecks.

Rudy’s latest attempt to allay doubts came as he spoke to Wendell Goler aboard his campaign bus.

Click below to see Rudy explain in his own words.

http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/rudygolerstrategy.mov

Can he convince reporters, bloggers and the public that his Florida must-win strategy is working despite most of the current polls showing him lagging behind McCain in Florida?

Real Clear Politics has the numbers.

Read Mosheh Oinounou, our embed producer’s full write up on this at embeds.blogs.foxnews.com

There are polls aplenty and each campaign can find reason for optimism. Check here to see the latest Real Clear Politics polls. Michigan is a Romney/McCain fight. The subject is manufacturing job losses. Romney has family history in the state, his father was governor. McCain won the 2000 Michigan primary. McCain has momentum coming out of NH, but knows he can’t afford to let the McCainiacs get complacent.

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RCP and ARG are both showing Obama and McCain with significant leads.

POLLS - LATEST RCP AVG%

Follow this link to RCP page to see the trendline graphs…..

NH DEMS: Obama 36.9%, HRC 29.9%, Edwards 18.6%

NH GOP: McCain 33.9%, Romney 28.4%, Huckabee 11.6%, Giuliani 8.7%

American Research Group’s result can be seen at http://americanresearchgroup.com

The surveys were conducted on January 5 and 6. These are stand-alone samples, including callbacks.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 39% to 28%, with 22% for John Edwards. This race is turning more on age than party as Obama leads Clinton 42% to 25% among voters age 18 to 64 (comprising 84% of the vote), while Clinton leads among voters 65 years and older 44% to 21% (comprising 16% of the vote).

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 35% to 27%, with 12% for Mike Huckabee and 10% for Rudy Giuliani.

After the AP reported that the Clinton campaign was preparing for a possible loss in Iowa by building a firewall in New Hampshire, two new polls show Obama pulling into a dead heat. A new WMUR poll has Hillary leading Barack Obama by a single point, 31-30. She once led the same poll by 20 points. And Rasmussen Reports actually has Obama ahead in the Granite State, 31-28.

Meanwhile, a new survey from Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision shows Obama ahead by 8 in Iowa, 33-25.  But a Rasmussen poll shows Hillary leading 29-26, confirming what everyone already knows about Iowa — it’s just too close to call.

To add insult to injury, the NY Daily News reports that Bill Clinton is so worried about the campaign’s recent performance that he’s taking a much more active role, and there are rumors of an impending staff shake-up — rumblings that were denied by Sen Clinton herself yesterday.

Our own Major Garrett reports that the Clinton campaign “exhibits increasing annoyance at what it regards as a ‘free ride’ for Obama from the political press corps and feels beseiged as it has to bat away incessant questions about declining poll numbers in early battleground states and accounts of deepening turmoil at the highest levels of the Clinton campaign.”

The Clinton folks are trying to end that free ride, pushing newly-surfaced voter questionnaires filled out by Obama that they believe underscore their contention that Obama is either too liberal, too inconsistent, or too unelectable — or all three.

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San Francisco, CA — Despite the latest national polls now showing Mike Huckabee in a tie with Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor says he does not feel Huckabee is a “threat” to his campaign.

Giuliani acknowledged that Huckabee has “gained quite a bit” in the polls, but said he does not feel any additional pressure from the former Arkansas Governor or any other GOP rivals, reiterating that he is the strongest candidate on fiscal and national security issues.

“I don’t see any of the other candidates as a threat to my campaign. My campaign is my campaign. I have got to reach out to Republican voters. Whether it’s Mike Hucakabee or someone else. There will always be competitors and it’s my job to convince the Republican party that I would be the most electable Republican,” Giuliani said during a quick stop in San Francisco today. “My fiscal conservatism and my ability to keep us on offense against terrorism make me the right man in the right place.”

A new Iowa survey from Strategic Vision, a Republican polling outfit, seems to confirm the recent pro-Obama trend in the state. The Illinois Senator leads the Democratic pack with 32%, followed by chief rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards at 25%. But as with all recent polls here, the numbers are within the margin of error.

Should Hillary be worried? The campaign can’t be happy with the trend lines in the horse race — especially since momentum always plays such a key role in Iowa. They also can’t be happy with the fact that she’s dropping among women, and that voters seem to care less about experience than change. But staffers constantly point out that polls don’t matter here. While that’s partially spin, since aides won’t hesitate to point out a poll that looks good for their candidate, there’s a lot of truth to the assertion.

I asked Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman, who runs the Fox News / Opinion Dynamics polls, why it’s so difficult to get a read on the Hawkeye state. “Polling in Iowa is very difficult and of very uncertain quality,” he wrote back. “This results from the following factors:

(more…)

With about five weeks to go before the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, the latest Fox News poll in the state shows the race on both sides tightening. On the Republican side, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to hold a lead but Rudy Giuliani and John McCain remain within striking distance, according to the poll of likely Republican primary voters.

Mitt Romney 29%
John McCain 21%
Rudy Giuliani 19%
Mike Huckabee 7%

For more on GOP…

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton is seeing a softening in her lead with Sen. Barack Obama closing in on the party front-runner.

Hillary Clinton 30%
Barack Obama 23%
John Edwards 17%
Bill Richardson 12%

For more on Dems…

The telephone poll was conducted for FOX News by Opinion Dynamics Corp. among 1,000 likely presidential primary voters in New Hampshire, including 500 likely Democratic primary voters and 500 likely Republican primary voters, from Nov. 27 to Nov. 29. The entire poll has a 3-point error margin overall and a 4 point error for the subgroups of Democratic and GOP presidential primary voters.

Full Results (PDF)