The latest RCP polls show Obama gaining ground on McCain in a head to head match-up with McCain. His lead is still within the margin of error in most polls and much can change in the next 9 months but McCain acknowledged Obama’s front-runner status in his victory speech in VA when he made reference to hope, “Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing…” and continued by saying “to encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope, it is a platitude.”

He finished his speech with Obama’s signature line, “Fired up and ready to go.”

National Head-to-Head Polls

In all the latest National polls according to Real Clear Politics, McCain holds a sizable lead of 18 points or more over Romney. The only exception is the latest Rasmussen polls conducted between Jan 29 and Feb 1. Scott Rasmussen has just began his daily national track and his poll shows Romney leading with a double digit lead among Republican conservatives, which pulls him even with McCain who beats Mitt two to one among others Republicans.

In the dialect of polling science, this may be an “outlier” meaning this could be accurate but it’s so inconsistent with any of the other polls that unless other polls match it within the next few days it may be written off as a statistical aberration.

Polling Data

Counter attack politics. McCain doesn’t much like Romney.

Click Here for McCains take on some tough mailers circulating in South Carolina.

The RCP average of polls show Huckabee with a  lead in South Carolina but several individual polls show McCain leading  Today is Michigan Primary day, polls close at 8pm.

Just as McCain has to win SC..Romney has to win Mi.    The direct mail in SC is going to get ferocious now.

McCain aides know they need to win in SC, just as Romney aides know they need Michigan.  Both candidates are in until 2/5, but first Mitt, then McCain have their backs up against the wall in the next 2 states.

He wins and goes on. He loses…and goes on? Could be, but bet nothing. Will the former Massachusetts Governor find that the Wolverine state -where he was born- is his Bunker Hill?

VIDEO: Mitt tours Michigan Statehouse:
http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/112-post-tour.mov

Surprise!! the polls are all over the place and can’t be trusted. Check out the regional breakdown and composition of the samples in these polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

RCP and ARG are both showing Obama and McCain with significant leads.

POLLS – LATEST RCP AVG%

Follow this link to RCP page to see the trendline graphs…..

NH DEMS: Obama 36.9%, HRC 29.9%, Edwards 18.6%

NH GOP: McCain 33.9%, Romney 28.4%, Huckabee 11.6%, Giuliani 8.7%

American Research Group’s result can be seen at http://americanresearchgroup.com

The surveys were conducted on January 5 and 6. These are stand-alone samples, including callbacks.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 39% to 28%, with 22% for John Edwards. This race is turning more on age than party as Obama leads Clinton 42% to 25% among voters age 18 to 64 (comprising 84% of the vote), while Clinton leads among voters 65 years and older 44% to 21% (comprising 16% of the vote).

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 35% to 27%, with 12% for Mike Huckabee and 10% for Rudy Giuliani.

1930 EST (Dem) and 2000 EST GOP Saturday marked 120 hours (five days) to the Iowa caucuses. You could accurately say at 1530 EST tomorrow that the Iowa caucuses “begin in 100 hours.”

Obama unveiled a new argument for his candidacy today: He beats all the GOPers in head to head matchups. A small problem: It isn’t true if you go by the RCP averages But he is not resting on that dubious claim. His stump now includes two five minute sections: one to rebut HRC’s “only experience makes change” argument; one for Edwards’ “change comes from confrontation” theme.

HRC offers a harrowing tale to let everyone know she is none too thrilled that Obama “tea”ed off on her yesterday. Watch her remarks at Aaron Brun’s post in the FNC Embed Blog.

And Edwards, perhaps feeling a tad bit of pressure from the Obama campaign’s relentless criticisms of third party efforts, takes a pledge.

Huckabee is still defending all that “Pakistan illegal immigrant” stuff but he has really found a groove with his Romney attacks. McCain’s NH crowds are B-I-G, BIG. Seeing reports that some of the press and staff were stuck outside (literally out in the cold) listening through open windows today (that’s good advance work). He did not push against Romney but, after yesterday’s ad, perhaps he feels like he has made his point (for now).

Romney on the other hand isn’t finished with either of them yet. An IA mailer hit mailboxes today on Huckabee’s law & order record and a NH TV ad focusing on McCain’s immigration record filled the airwaves.

Rudy is still out there somewhere plotting. Though announcing that he will spend Caucus night in Florida indicates he doesn’t expect a surprise showing in Iowa. Or maybe that is what he wants us to think.