Cameron's Corner

Posts Tagged ‘Real Clear Politics’

Delegate Counts Show McCain With the Decisive Lead

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008

After the sweep by Obama and McCain in the Potomac Primaries the latest delegate count by Real Clear Politics shows McCain has about 3/4 of the needed delegates and Huckabee has less than one quarter.

The actual delegate count is completely vague. Each campaign on both sides counts delegates differently. The AP and various networks have differing numbers too. On the democratic side, it is clear that Obama has the lead but by how much is the subject of debate and super delegates which are available only for the democratic contest are another story entirely.

REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2008
Democrats Obama Clinton
Total Delegates 1272 1231
Pledged Delegates 1116 989
Popular Vote 9,347,707 8,648,897
Popular Vote (w/FL) 9,923,921 9,519,883
National RCP Average 44.4% 44.4%
Feb 19 – Mar 4 States - -
Republicans McCain Huckabee
Total Delegates 819 240
National RCP Average 48.2% 28.0%

NO FRONTRUNNER

Wednesday, January 16th, 2008

Mitt claims the pro-growth economic message with Michigan, NH solidified Mac’s strong security message and Huck in Iowa got the jump on social and religious conservatives…3 winners with distinct messages, and with strengths and weaknesses regionally and on core GOP issues…There is no front-runner.
SC was always THE state for southerner Fred Thompson to win…failing here could eliminate him.
But McCain has long viewed SC (with a high per capita population of retired and active military) as key to his long term viability.
And because as much as 60% of the South Carolina GOP vote is evangelical Huck needs to win here too!
A 3 way do or die???
ABSOLUTELY NOT!
Now the race is about delegate counting with all the candidates planning for a long war of attrition beyond February 5th. When you look at the count and the map there is little incentive for anyone to bail out regardless of the outcome of South Carolina .

States allocating pledged delegates to date:
Iowa, Wyoming (GOP), New Hampshire, Michigan

Source: Real Clear Politics

Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)

Candidate Delegates
Rudy Giuliani 1
Mike Huckabee 21
Duncan Hunter 1
John McCain 19
Ron Paul 2
Mitt Romney 42
Fred Thompson 6
Total 92

As for Giuliani, he put all his eggs in Florida’s winner-take-all basket. There are 57 delegates to be won there.

He is tied with McCain. If McCain wins South Carolina that could propel to a win of those 57 delegates.

Florida Republican Primary

Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)

Poll Date McCain Giuliani Huckabee Romney Thompson Paul Spread
RCP Average 01/07 to 01/13 21.3 21.3 18.3 17.0 8.8 4.8 Tie
SurveyUSA 01/11 – 01/13 25 23 18 18 9 4 McCain +2.0
Quinnipiac 01/09 – 01/13 22 20 19 19 7 5 McCain +2.0
Rasmussen 01/09 – 01/12 19 18 17 18 11 5 McCain +1.0
InsiderAdvantage 01/07 – 01/07 19 24 19 13 8 5 Giuliani +5.0

Giuliani Again Reassures the Public about his Finances.

Monday, January 14th, 2008

Skepticism over Giuliani’s finances dogged him for another day in Florida. He has spent the last few trying to reassure voters that he is not tapped out, even while some aides voluntarily give up their paychecks.

Rudy’s latest attempt to allay doubts came as he spoke to Wendell Goler aboard his campaign bus.

Click below to see Rudy explain in his own words.

http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/rudygolerstrategy.mov

Can he convince reporters, bloggers and the public that his Florida must-win strategy is working despite most of the current polls showing him lagging behind McCain in Florida?

Real Clear Politics has the numbers.

Read Mosheh Oinounou, our embed producer’s full write up on this at embeds.blogs.foxnews.com

McCain Downplays Expectations in Michigan.

Monday, January 14th, 2008

There are polls aplenty and each campaign can find reason for optimism. Check here to see the latest Real Clear Politics polls. Michigan is a Romney/McCain fight. The subject is manufacturing job losses. Romney has family history in the state, his father was governor. McCain won the 2000 Michigan primary. McCain has momentum coming out of NH, but knows he can’t afford to let the McCainiacs get complacent.

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