The March 4th primaries could put McCain over the top for the GOP nomination and Huckabee officially in second place for the 2008 GOP race.
These are HISTORIC achievements that to many seemed unimaginable last year. This VLOG and the FNC political unit however never once wrote off McCain last year when others did.
And while Huckabee went virtually unnoticed until last years Ames strawpoll, we identified him in January of 2007 as the darkhorse most likely to surprise.
Now McCain has 1014 delegates. He needs 177 to reach the needed 1191.
Huckabee has won 257 delegates. He needs 24 to best Mitt Romney who won 280.
McCain is expected to take VT and RI outright but neither Texas nor Ohio are winner take all – they are awarded proportionally by state senate and congressional district respectively. If Huckabee wins any combination of 8 Texas state senate or Ohio congressional districts he will win 24 delegates and thus go ahead of Romney. Undisputed 2nd place.
Huckabee will make no definitive statements Tuesday night about the future of his campaign. But look for news on Thursday when he returns to Little Rock. For weeks the Huckabee campaign has been doing an unofficial victory lap. The governor and his staff are delighted by his success and acknowledged status as a conservative leader who will now be well positioned to run again in the future.
Camp Huck is steering people away from veep speculation. The governor doesn’t expect an offer and insiders say if it came he should reject it. They think Huckabee’s future prospects are stronger making his own way rather than playing #2 to McCain.
McCain must first co-opt the RNC, and its a long complex process to take over the sprawling Bush admin national party apparatus. They are for now merely studying how past VP’s have been chosen and discussing how to come up with their own process.
Republicans all over the country are emailing and calling the campaign with their runningmate advice. While Huckabee would have us believe he is disinterested for now, that has never been the case for Mitt Romney.
Though Romney and McCain fought tooth and nail and grew legitimately angry with one another for exaggerated charges and counter charges throughout their year long battle, alot of republican grey beards think they make a good team on paper…..
When McCain imploded in August of 07, the campaign knew the Petraeus report would be positive and come out after labor day – they regrouped, back timed, and bet everything on a New Hampshire win that would launch McCain through South Carolina and Florida to Super Tuesday…in a flash.
Throughout 07 McCain escaped serious scrutiny from conservatives for three reasons;
1) Romney was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire
2) Giuliani was leading the national polls
3) Fred Thompson held early promise.
Conservative McCain opponents never took him seriously.
McCain’s team of Rick Davis, Mark Salter, Charlie Black, Steve Schmidt, Mark McKinnon, Jill Hazelbaker, among others have focused the Senator as never before. The undisciplined rhetorical wounds McCain is known for self inflicting have been all but absent. McCain complimented Huckabee and Romney tonight. Throughout this campaign McCain has shown almost no hint of the vindictive temper often referred to by his critics.
Super Tuesday was easy – they didn’t have much time or money to make too many strategic or tactical decisions. They focused their momentum on the big winner take all states. Schmidt helped sew up (his old boss) Schwarzenegger’s endorsement for Cahl-eee-for-nya. They made a big show of reaching out to conservative critics, with McCain making many personal calls. They did robocalls and radio and TV ads. Endorsements by Rudy and dozens of newspapers across the country helped, as did the fact that the story has not yet resurfaced about McCain hiring Washington super lawyer Bob Bennett amid talk of an ethics allegation.
McCain must continue to persuade conservatives. His remarks in Arizona Tuesday night were aimed right at the right:
“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government that spends too much of your money on things you neither want nor need, while failing to do as well as we should the things none of us can do individually. I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively, because the cost of our defense is measured in losses so hard to bear and in the heartbreak of so many families.
“I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must respect our values because they are the true source of our strength; and enforce the rule of law, which is the first defense of freedom. I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility. I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary, and keep out of the way of the most industrious, ingenious, and optimistic people in the history of the world.
“I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that it is the strength, courage, wisdom and patriotism of free people — not the government — who have made this country the extraordinarily successful place it is. My friends, my purpose is to preserve and strengthen our freedom, the freedom I have defended all my adult life, and I will not let anyone or anything deter me.” -John McCain
Next stop CPAC in Washington. As we reported earlier this week; McCain has a golden opportunity to make pledges and mend fences. It will take a helluva speech. It could be a chilly reception.
It’s also a great opportunity for Romney to make his conservative case against McCain and for Huckabee to make his case with an audience that is likely to give him a very warm reception.
Missouri is winner take all with 58 delegates. The latest ARG polls out today shows Huckabee leading 31-29 over McCain with Romney at 27.
McCain appears to have a hammer lock on NY, NJ, Ct, DE, and Az,,,for a total of 251 delegates to start. He leads in Delaware 41-35 over Romney in the latest ARG poll.
Romney has Utah in hand where there is a large Mormon population and 36 winner take all delegates. Massachusetts has 43 delegates and Romney has a big lead but it is not winner take all and McCain is playing to win there. Romney is also making a move on West Virginia’s 18 winner take all delegates, and competing in Co., Mn., Mt., and N.D.
Mike Huckabee leads the RCP average of polls in Georgia based on a big bump in a recent Insider Advantage survey. Huck trailed in two earlier polls, Georgia has 72 non-winner take all delegates. Arkansas should be a gimmee for Huck with its 34 proportionately awarded delegates.
There is also a poll from WSMV-TV that shows Huckabee leading in Tennessee 24-23 over McCain.
The truth is he may be able to come in second in several southern and conservative states including Ga., Al., Mo., Ok, and his home state of Arkansas. He could even squeak out wins if things go right. Every vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, or at least that is what Mitt Romney himself has said.
Do not forget!! Out of the 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 GOP convention that takes place 2/5 –10 are winner take all but in 11 contests delegates are awarded proportionately to the top three. Mitt and Huck will have some delegates even if they win no states.
Romney surrogates have been blasting Huckabee in many of those states and others. Publicly Romney is focused on McCain but in several conservative states where Huckabee is popular the Romney camp is attacking Huckabee too.
Huckabee was asked if a poor Super Tuesday showing might end his candidacy today and said not only does he not want to quit he can’t! His explanation is that
“it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog”
and he’s got plenty left. Furthermore Huckaboomers want him to stay in and Huck himself believes that if republicans don’t pick him they should pick McCain and not Romney
Huckabee’s attacks on Romney have many speculating that the former Ark Gov is auditioning for the McCain veep spot.
McCAIN PLAYS TO DEFEAT MITT ONCE AND FOR ALL IN MASSACHUSETTS
With a commanding lead in most super Tuesday states GOP front-runner John MCCain is looking for a put away punch in Mitt Romney’s home state of Massachusetts.
McCain hopes to win a big majority of the 1,023 nomination delegates that are up for grabs in the 21 states that have contests 2/5 (there are 15 primaries, 5 caucuses and 1 state convention,
Ten of the races are winner take all) But Romney has signaled that may not push him out of the race.
The McCain campaign believes beating Romney “in the state where people know him best” would be a decisive blow that would force Romney to reconsider and ultimately withdraw. However all the latest polls show Romney with a decisive lead in the bay state.
As FOX was first to report Wednesday, McCain plans to watch the Super Bowl and campaign in Boston!! Sunday night and Monday morning.
McCain has TV ads on the air in Massachusetts via a current national cable buy. Aides say they are going up with local radio spots tonight. In addition Former Massachusetts Governor(s) Jane Swift and Paul Cellucci both have full schedules of surrogate campaign events on behalf of McCain – they are not saying nice things about Mitt.
Finally the campaign has launched an aggressive robo telephone call blitz and expects helpful editorials from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald newspapers which have both endorsed McCain.
Romney has said repeatedly to FOX NEWS and others in recent days that he plans to continue after Super Tuesday and will assess his best path forward after the results are tabulated.
Mitt Romney’s latest TV ad jabs at Rudy’s liberal social views and McCain’s original opposition to the Bush tax. Without naming them, Romney casts himself as most sound on Reagan coalition social and economic conservatism.
In fact there have not been ten uninterrupted campaign days in this entire campaign. The ten days before Iowa included Christmas and New Years.
Since August John McCain has been the come-from-behind-underdog. For the first time in the race he is going to get the full front-runner treatment: intense scrutiny and relentless criticism from his rivals.
Huckabee’s gracious praise for McCain in tonight’s concession speech smacked of a short list audition. He promised to remain in the nominating “process” for a long time, and said he still believes it will end “in the White House.” But there were moments when he spoke about his campaign in the past tense, and he didn’t say in what capacity he believed he would end up in Casa Blanca.
With a win in Nevada under his belt Mitt Romney now hopes to eliminate Fred Thompson.
Thompson needs to make third and though purely anecdotal, my SC precinct sources are seeing more Mittites than Fredheads…4th could be devastating for Thompson. Third would be a victory for Romney.
At the Romney Michigan HQ, aides to the Detroit born former Massachusetts Governor say he has won.
The economy was the most important issue according to exit polls.
By the end of the third quarter last year Mitt had tapped his personal fortune for 17 million. He has spent at least that since then. By some estimates he has now spent in excess of 40 million of his own money.
He’ll have two wins…Wyoming and Michigan and 2nds in Ia and NH..by far the largest delegate and vote count of any republican…and he STILL has more money than any of em going forward.
3 to 6 inches of snow fell around Detroit overnight.
GOP officials say light turnout so far is in keeping with forecasts of about a million votes cast today in the republican primary.
In 2000 when John McCain won, 1.3 million votes were cast- 17 percent of McCain’s votes were from indies and dems.
Light turnout and weather this time could mean fewer non-GOP votes. That could be good news for Romney.
If polls are to be believed ALL the trend lines are in Romney’s direction…albeit within the margin of error.
Romney went optimistic about Michigan manufacturing job losses saying he’ll lead the recovery. Initially McCain said those jobs are not coming back, he cast Romney as pandering. It wasn’t until a couple days ago that McCain too started cheering the recovery. If Romney wins, jobs and optimism V Realism V pessimism may be seen as the defining issues.
If Romney wins, the race in many ways, will be back to the beginning.
Thinkabout it; a Romney win evens the playing field. Huck, Mac and Mitt each have a “W” going forward.
If McCain wins we’ll have an indisputable frontrunner.
AGAIN…Mitt needs Michigan…McCain needs SC.
Tactically the best way to campaign in SC is to win MI.</
A McCain win slingshots him into SC where he has basically everything on the line.
As the most experienced ’security candidate” if McCain can’t win in SC where the military population is the nations highest per capita,,where (besides NH and AZ) might he win?
Conversely if Mitt can’t win in his home state, well, uh, what then?
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British Prime Minister Secretary Defends Afghan Mission Britain's influential media placed the news on the front pages, inevitably increasing pressure on the government both to explain the mission and to say whether it is giving the military the support it needs to fight the war.
TEN DAYS IS A LONG TIME.
