Die hard supporters are still there, most others are gone. If Florida’s winner will be the nominee, as Rudy Giuliani has said for months, what does he do if he loses?

There are plans to attend the GOP debate at the Reagan Library Wednesday.

Some campaign aides privately gripe about what might have been. There are those who believed Rudy could have competed and won New Hampshire.

One insider/operative railed that Rudy did not have enough people with experience running national presidential campaigns.

Republicans attending rallies in Florida for Rudy for the last ten days have routinely spilled into the parking lots afterward complaining that the Mayor’s decision not to compete “up north” took him out of the news and perhaps out of serious contention.

Without the kind of money that only a win can bring, the Giuliani campaign is at a big super tuesday disadvantage. John McCain leads polls in most of the states Rudy was counting on easily winning.

Senior advisers and campaign officials routinely boasted about all the states Rudy would win after taking the first winner take all state in the ‘08.

He said Monday he lives his life expecting miracles. There were none for Americas Mayor in Florida today. Now comes the question of what he’ll do next. Staff, advisers, friends, have thought and even whispered about it in recent days. There have been some serious conversations at very high levels.

Some insiders say he should drop out quickly, make his Sunshine state concession, his national one.

Others say attend the L-A debate. Go out on a high note. Stay in through Super Tuesday to say you gave it your all, live each day expecting miracles.

Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted – so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

Mitt could be having a moment. In the first polls after South Carolina Romney was ahead. McCain got the Palmetto state bounce and inched ahead. Rudy tanked. Fred bailed -which helped Huckabee, who according to Mason Dixon could beat Rudy for third.

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

Rudy is in trouble. At every event some supporter will tell me about being worried that he’s fading. Seniors, vets, and transplants, in South Florida like McCain and Romney too. Crowd members repeatedly note Rudy’s absence from the news for the last month and lament that he did not compete with others elsewhere.

All politics is local but not always a winner. Hizzoner’s support for a National Catastrophic Insurance fund is very popular but Floridians aren’t rubes. The land of recount injunctions and Supreme court appeals is not likely to miss so blatant a pander.

In short:
Governor Charlie Crist pushed a measure through the legislature aimed at lowering skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane plagued Florida. Premiums may have stabilized but state taxpayers are now on the hook if the insurance companies can’t handle a future disaster. Crist now wants Washington to establish a $250 billion National Catastrophic Insurance fund that would ostensibly put taxpayers in all 50 states on the hook for Florida (and other states) should bailing out the insurance companies require catastrophic state tax hikes.

Rudy has signed on to it. Critics in Florida and elsewhere think its doomed as a big government risk guarantee for disaster insurance, funded by taxpayers in 50 states.

Giuliani has spent a lot of time around the I-4 corridor and his aides are talking up big crowds. That’s ironic since in big states like Florida crowd size is not really that relevant. Rally enthusiasm and attendance is a good yardstick in early retail states. Rudy did a bit of it in NH, but nothing compared to Mitt and McCain. The most stunning thing about Rudy’s support is that in Southern Florida (from Boca Raton to Miami Beach..affectionately known as the 6th buro of NY for all the Big Apple snowbirds and transplants) McCain leads by 10% in the Miami herald Poll.

Still Rudy is a respected and much loved hero. His staff is working triple time and they are crackerjack pro’s. Ever optimistic, doggedly loyal, disciplined message managers, they all hate to lose and are not familiar with it.

DO NOT BE shocked by a final Rudy surge before Tuesday.

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans? Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Anything can happen. The polls could be wrong. Romney could win Florida and tank February 5th. McCain could EASILY win Florida. Rudy could re-surge.

But if Romney pulls out a victory in Florida he will have arrived. His talking point will no longer be that he won Michigan and leads in delegates, it will be that for the first time there is a clear front-runner heading into February 5th, and he’s it.

A Rudy Giuliani campaign volunteer has resigned 48 hours after making derogatory comments about Muslims.

Aides said Saturday morning that John Deady, co-chairman of New Hampshire Veterans for Rudy, is no longer associated with the campaign after telling multiple media outlets this week that he believed Giuliani was the best candidate to drive Muslims “back to their caves.”

Deady, an 80-year old WWII veteran, told the British newspaper, The Guardian, earlier this week that Giuliani has “the knowledge and the judgement to attack one of the most difficult problems in current history and that is the rise of the Muslims…we need to keep the feet to the fire and keep pressing these people until we defeat or chase them back to their caves or in other words get rid of them.”

Asked to clarify what he meant by “the Muslims,” Deady told the Talking Points Memo blog that he did not distinguish between “good muslims and bad Muslims.” Below is a video excerpt of the Guardian interview.

Official Statement from Rudy Giuliani New Hampshire Chairman Wayne Semprini:

“Mr. Deady offered his resignation from his volunteer position in the campaign and I accepted his resignation.”

Trying to regain momentum in the GOP primary battle, Rudy Giuliani is set to deliver what the campaign is calling a “major” address in Tampa, FL Saturday morning.

Campaign Manager Mike DuHaime told Fox News today that the former NYC mayor intends to discuss his accomplishments and experience in NYC, but focus on emphasizing a “vision for the future.” The argument in sum: “(There is) one leader who is tested, been tested in times of crisis, who is ready to lead right now, looking forward to the challenges this country may face….there are two things you have to look at for any candidate. What is their vision for where they want to take America? And then, do they have a track record that proves that they can do what they are saying they are going to do? With the mayor you have someone with a great vision and also somebody with a track record who has done what many people thought was impossible.”

While the message (part national security and part fiscal conservative) does not deviate much from what we are hearing on the stump or in his TV ads, Giuliani has lost track of the news cycle as of late, and the campaign is billing this as a chance to begin making his closing argument to voters. Giuliani rarely gives formal speeches, usually opting for meet and greets at diners or short statements at the top of town hall meetings.

(more…)

Cedar Rapids, IA — Rudy Giuliani said he found Wednesday’s GOP debate “unsatisfying” because it left out some of the “biggest issues” facing the country.

“One of the things that I found unsatisfying about the debate today was that it cut off discussing Iraq and illegal immigration. They are two of the biggest issues that face us,” Giuliani told a town hall forum at Coe College Wednesday evening. He discussed his reaction in response to a student’s question about the origins of terrorism.

He was then asked for further comment by another forum attendee. Referring to the moderator of today’s Iowa Public Radio/Des Moines Register debate, Carolyn Washburn, he added, “I think she did a good job of asking the questions she asked. But I think it was a mistake to leave out terrorism, Iraq, Iran and immigration.”

As usual, our email inboxes are being inundated with “fact checks” and background info from the campaigns and Democrats.

The Democratic National Committee is particularly focussed on Rudy Giuliani thus far but is also going after Mitt Romney today. Untouched is Mike Huckabee. Calling Matt Drudge? (who reported yesterday that the DNC is laying off the new top tier candidate believing that he would be an easy general election target.) The DNC denies the story….

But here are the DNC emails we have gotten thus far:

–DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Giuliani Increased NYC Government Spending
–DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Giuliani’s Flawed Care Plan
–DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Giuliani Changes Position on School Choice
–DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Mitt Romney Knows Why Jobs Go … And Where He Sends Them
–DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Romney and Giuliani Both Profit from Foreign Oil

***UPDATE***

The DNC just sent out on Huck release:

DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Arkansas Failed to Meet Education Obligations Under Huckabee

But they are still focussed on the other two front-runners this afternoon:

DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Giuliani Grasping for Numbers on Ending Illegal Immigration
DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Giuliani Big on Secrecy as NYC Mayor
DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Giuliani Changes Position on School Choice
DMR REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Romney Takes Third Position on GlobalWarming

John McCain complimented current New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s education plan–fixing a system that was “clearly broken.” Paging Rudy Giuliani?

The former NYC mayor was up next to discuss education but ignored McCain’s remarks.

Time to add the Duke Chronicle to my morning reads. Rudy Giuliani’s son, Andrew, defended his relationship with his father during an interview with the campus newspaper last week. The Duke University Junior spoke to the paper after learning that Details Magazine labeled him as the “person who could most easily torpedo” his father’s campaign, ranking him the 19th most powerful man under-45.

In it’s January 2008 issue, the magazine writes: “The person who could most easily torpedo the presidential campaign of America’s Mayor is not a former mistress or political insider; it’s Rudy Giuliani’s own estranged son, Andrew….this spring, an angry Andrew revealed that he and his father had no relationship and announced that there was no way he’d work on Pop’s political campaign.”

The younger Giuliani responded to an interview request by the paper, where he defended his relationship with his father and lashed out at The New York Times (like father like son), but did admit giving them “too much rope to hang myself with.”

Giuliani said he was surprised he made the rankings, adding that he did not feel he could have any influence over the Republican party’s primary.

“I understand with reality TV and mass media there is a lot more tension and focus on politicians’ family members than before,” Giuliani said. “But when push comes to shove, people will choose the person who represents them best.”

He added that Details mischaracterized his relationship with his father based on a New York Times article earlier this year that he said twisted his words.

“For them to say I have no relationship with my father is flat out wrong. They took a 20-minute interview and spun it in the direction that they wanted,” Giuliani said. “It’s not anything new to say that The New York Times is not in my father’s corner, and they did a good job of proving that. I wasn’t careful enough in watching my words and gave them too much rope to hang myself with.”

Here is the NYT interview from March.

Santa Monica, CA — It wasn’t Britney or Paris, but campaigning in the Los Angeles area Tuesday, Rudy Giuliani had his own celebrity sighting.

During a quick campaign stop at the “The Counter” diner, Giuliani met actress Kerry Washington. A D.C. native, Washington has starred in multiple recent hits including “Ray,” and “The Last King of Scotland.”

But the run-in was not at random. Washington said she planned to be at the Giuliani event as part of an ongoing, multiple-location fashion shoot that will eventually be published in the New York Times Magazine. The spread will feature the actress dressed in various labels at a number of political events.

Arriving at the diner wearing camera-ready makeup and dressed in a black, red and white designer suit, Washington stationed herself near the entrance alongside a photographer and was able to snag a couple quick photos with Hizzoner. (see video) It was clear that Giuliani did not immediately recognize the actress, greeting her like every other patron by posing for a photo, saying hello and immediately moving on.

After he took a few media questions inside the diner, Washington again tried to catch the former NYC mayor on his way out for a couple more photos, but Giuliani passed her by without stopping.

Campaign aides said they were previously unaware of the shoot and did not initially recognize the celeb–forcing Washington to introduce herself as an “actress” to staffers. (Full disclosure: I also did not initially recognize Washington.)

Don’t expect Washington to join Giuliani on the trail anytime soon however. The visit was strictly “business,” Washington said–telling me afterward that she is not a Giuliani supporter and was solely at the campaign appearance for the photo shoot.

And here is a piece of random trivia. It turns out that today was not the first time Giuliani and Washington have been at the same event this year. The politico and the actress were both guests of various media at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner held in D.C. this past spring.

Making her first appearance on the campaign trail in nearly three and a half weeks, Judith Nathan Giuliani accompanied her husband to a post-Univision debate rally Sunday night in Miami. She greeted the mostly-Latino crowd of about 60 supporters with a handful of Spanish words.

Early on she declared, “Esta noche, muy bonita,” garnering applause from the crowd at the Holiday Inn ballroom, to which he responded that she is the only Spanish-speaking member of the household. Later, after he completed a short speech, she added “buenas noches, gracias,” rolling the Spanish “R” perfectly.

The last time she appeared beside the mayor was during a November 18 campaign trip–also to Miami–where they attended a NASCAR race at the Homestead-Miami Motor Speedway.

Mrs. Giuliani’s time away from the campaign trail coincides with news that came out nearly two weeks ago related to controversial billing practices regarding security costs for trips then-Mayor Giuliani made to visit her while the two were engaged in an extra-marital affair. It was also revealed last week that she was provided with NYPD security patrol earlier than previously known.

The campaign declined requests to interview her on Sunday and it remains to be seen how or even if Mrs. Giuliani will respond to the NYPD security story. For his part, the former New York City mayor has said that he did nothing inappropriate and any security she was provided was determined to be necessary by the NYPD. Mrs. Giuliani has been among the most quiet of the candidates’ spouses on the trail, only speaking at a handful of events during the last year.